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Top 200 Big Board, Non-PPR: Version 1.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/16/23 |
PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC

Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst that does not consider it at all.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "FPos" column).

Over the next two weeks, I will release my first Big Boards for superflex and FFPC leagues. In the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason, I will rank at least 225 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams
.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Non-PPR format:

 Non-PPR Big Board - Top 200
Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 RB1 Nick Chubb CLE 5.7
2 RB2 Christian McCaffrey SF 5.0
3 RB3 Bijan Robinson ATL 4.7
4 WR1 Justin Jefferson MIN 4.2
5 RB4 Austin Ekeler LAC 3.5
6 WR2 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 3.5
7 WR3 Tyreek Hill MIA 3.5
8 RB5 Jonathan Taylor IND 3.0
9 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 2.6
10 RB6 Derrick Henry TEN 2.4
11 WR4 Cooper Kupp LAR 2.4
12 RB7 Tony Pollard DAL 2.3
13 QB1 Jalen Hurts PHI 2.2
14 RB8 Saquon Barkley NYG 2.0
15 QB2 Josh Allen BUF 1.6
16 WR5 CeeDee Lamb DAL 1.4
17 RB9 David Montgomery DET 1.2
18 WR6 Davante Adams LV 1.0
19 RB10 Breece Hall NYJ 0.8
20 WR7 A.J. Brown PHI 0.8
21 QB3 Lamar Jackson BAL 0.7
22 RB11 Aaron Jones GB 0.7
23 RB12 J.K. Dobbins BAL 0.6
24 TE2 Mark Andrews BAL 0.6
25 RB13 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 0.3
26 RB14 Dameon Pierce HOU 0.2
27 WR8 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 0.2
28 WR9 Stefon Diggs BUF 0.1
29 WR10 Jaylen Waddle MIA 0.1
30 WR11 Garrett Wilson NYJ -0.1
31 RB15 Najee Harris PIT -0.2
32 RB16 Kenneth Walker SEA -0.2
33 QB4 Patrick Mahomes KC -0.2
34 QB5 Justin Herbert LAC -0.2
35 RB17 Joe Mixon CIN -0.3
36 RB18 Jahmyr Gibbs DET -0.3
37 WR12 Chris Olave NO -0.4
38 WR13 Calvin Ridley JAC -0.5
39 QB6 Joe Burrow CIN -0.6
40 WR14 Tee Higgins CIN -0.8
41 RB19 Miles Sanders CAR -1.0
42 TE3 Darren Waller NYG -1.0
43 RB20 Travis Etienne JAC -1.1
44 WR15 DeVonta Smith PHI -1.1
45 WR16 Deebo Samuel SF -1.2
46 WR17 DK Metcalf SEA -1.4
47 RB21 Cam Akers LAR -1.6
48 QB7 Justin Fields CHI -1.6
49 WR18 Elijah Moore CLE -1.6
50 WR19 D.J. Moore CHI -1.6
51 WR20 Tyler Lockett SEA -1.7
52 WR21 Brandon Aiyuk SF -1.8
53 RB22 Josh Jacobs LV -1.8
54 WR22 Keenan Allen LAC -1.8
55 RB23 Alexander Mattison MIN -1.8
56 WR23 Terry McLaurin WAS -2.0
57 WR24 Amari Cooper CLE -2.0
58 QB8 Trevor Lawrence JAC -2.0
59 TE4 Kyle Pitts ATL -2.1
60 QB9 Deshaun Watson CLE -2.2
61 TE5 George Kittle SF -2.2
62 TE6 Dallas Goedert PHI -2.2
63 RB24 James Cook BUF -2.3
64 QB10 Geno Smith SEA -2.3
65 WR25 Christian Kirk JAC -2.4
66 RB25 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -2.4
67 RB26 Javonte Williams DEN -2.6
68 RB27 Alvin Kamara NO -2.6
69 WR26 DeAndre Hopkins TEN -2.7
70 WR27 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA -2.7
71 TE7 David Njoku CLE -2.7
72 RB28 Rachaad White TB -2.8
73 RB29 Devon Achane MIA -2.8
74 WR28 Jerry Jeudy DEN -2.9
75 TE8 T.J. Hockenson MIN -2.9
76 WR29 Drake London ATL -2.9
77 WR30 Treylon Burks TEN -2.9
78 RB30 Samaje Perine DEN -2.9
79 WR31 Mike Williams LAC -2.9
80 WR32 Chris Godwin TB -3.0
81 WR33 Gabriel Davis BUF -3.0
82 RB31 Antonio Gibson WAS -3.0
83 WR34 George Pickens PIT -3.0
84 RB32 Isiah Pacheco KC -3.1
85 TE9 Juwan Johnson NO -3.2
86 TE10 Evan Engram JAC -3.2
87 QB11 Anthony Richardson IND -3.3
88 TE11 Dalton Kincaid BUF -3.3
89 WR35 Mike Evans TB -3.3
90 WR36 Christian Watson GB -3.4
91 RB33 James Conner ARI -3.4
92 RB34 D'Andre Swift PHI -3.4
93 TE12 Gerald Everett LAC -3.4
94 WR37 Brandin Cooks DAL -3.5
95 WR38 Diontae Johnson PIT -3.5
96 WR39 Jordan Addison MIN -3.5
97 WR40 Courtland Sutton DEN -3.6
98 QB13 Kirk Cousins MIN -3.7
99 QB12 Russell Wilson DEN -3.7
100 WR41 Zay Flowers BAL -3.8
101 TE13 Greg Dulcich DEN -3.8
102 WR42 Michael Pittman Jr. IND -3.8
103 WR43 Jahan Dotson WAS -3.9
104 QB14 Dak Prescott DAL -3.9
105 TE14 Pat Freiermuth PIT -4.0
106 TE15 Hunter Henry NE -4.1
107 TE16 Tyler Higbee LAR -4.3
108 TE17 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN -4.4
109 WR44 JuJu Smith-Schuster NE -4.4
110 RB35 Dalvin Cook NYJ -4.4
111 QB15 Aaron Rodgers NYJ -4.5
112 TE18 Jake Ferguson DAL -4.5
113 WR45 Kadarius Toney KC -4.6
114 QB16 Daniel Jones NYG -4.6
115 WR46 Quentin Johnston LAC -4.6
116 TE19 Dalton Schultz HOU -4.6
117 TE20 Tyler Conklin NYJ -4.7
118 RB36 AJ Dillon GB -4.8
119 WR47 Marquise Brown ARI -4.8
120 TE21 Cole Kmet CHI -4.8
121 WR48 Romeo Doubs GB -4.8
122 WR49 Jakobi Meyers LV -4.8
123 TE22 Sam LaPorta DET -4.8
124 RB37 Khalil Herbert CHI -4.9
125 TE23 Jelani Woods IND -4.9
126 RB38 Jeff Wilson MIA -5.0
127 WR50 Michael Gallup DAL -5.0
128 RB39 Zach Charbonnet SEA -5.1
129 WR51 Darnell Mooney CHI -5.2
130 RB40 Tank Bigsby JAC -5.2
131 WR52 Jonathan Mingo CAR -5.2
132 WR53 Michael Thomas NO -5.3
133 WR54 Tyler Boyd CIN -5.3
134 WR55 Marvin Mims DEN -5.3
135 WR56 Skyy Moore KC -5.4
136 WR57 Nico Collins HOU -5.4
137 WR58 Alec Pierce IND -5.5
138 WR59 Curtis Samuel WAS -5.5
139 TE24 Taysom Hill NO -5.5
140 WR60 Allen Lazard NYJ -5.6
141 RB41 Damien Harris BUF -5.6
142 RB42 Jerome Ford CLE -5.7
143 RB43 Rashaad Penny PHI -5.9
144 RB44 Tyjae Spears TEN -5.9
145 RB45 Tyler Allgeier ATL -5.9
146 WR61 Adam Thielen CAR -5.9
147 QB17 Kyler Murray ARI -6.0
148 WR62 Isaiah Hodgins NYG -6.0
149 WR63 Rashee Rice KC -6.1
150 WR64 Hunter Renfrow LV -6.1
151 QB18 Derek Carr NO -6.2
152 QB19 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -6.3
153 TE25 Luke Musgrave GB -6.3
154 WR65 Odell Beckham Jr. BAL -6.3
155 WR66 Van Jefferson LAR -6.3
156 WR67 DeVante Parker NE -6.4
157 WR68 Rashod Bateman BAL -6.5
158 WR69 Jameson Williams DET -6.5
159 QB20 Jared Goff DET -6.5
160 WR70 Parris Campbell NYG -6.5
161 RB46 Jaylen Warren PIT -6.5
162 WR71 Mecole Hardman NYJ -6.6
163 RB47 Raheem Mostert MIA -6.6
164 RB48 Jamaal Williams NO -6.6
165 WR72 Darius Slayton NYG -6.6
166 WR73 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC -6.6
167 WR74 Josh Downs IND -6.6
168 WR75 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE -6.6
169 QB21 Brock Purdy SF -6.7
170 QB22 Sam Howell WAS -6.8
171 RB49 Ezekiel Elliott NE -6.8
172 RB50 Elijah Mitchell SF -6.8
173 WR76 John Metchie HOU -6.8
174 WR77 K.J. Osborn MIN -6.9
175 QB23 Mac Jones NE -6.9
176 WR78 Zay Jones JAC -7.1
177 WR79 D.J. Chark CAR -7.1
178 WR80 Puka Nacua LAR -7.1
179 QB24 Ryan Tannehill TEN -7.3
180 WR81 Robert Woods HOU -7.3
181 WR82 Rashid Shaheed NO -7.4
182 WR83 Michael Wilson ARI -7.4
183 RB51 Sean Tucker TB -7.4
184 RB52 Zamir White LV -7.5
185 WR84 Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR -7.5
186 QB25 Bryce Young CAR -7.6
187 RB53 Roschon Johnson CHI -7.6
188 RB54 Kendre Miller NO -7.7
189 RB55 Deneric Prince KC -7.7
190 RB56 Jerick McKinnon KC -7.8
191 RB57 Jordan Mason SF -7.9
192 RB58 Gus Edwards BAL -8.0
193 WR85 Chase Claypool CHI -8.0
194 RB59 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -8.0
195 RB60 Devin Singletary HOU -8.1
196 RB61 D'Onta Foreman CHI -8.3
197 RB62 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL -8.3
198 QB26 Matthew Stafford LAR -8.4
199 QB27 Jordan Love GB -8.4
200 RB63 Deuce Vaughn DAL -8.6


PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.