Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst who does not consider it at all.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red – For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow – For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green – For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos" column).

Over the next two weeks, I will release my first Big Boards for Half-PPR, superflex and standard leagues as well as the FFPC Big Boards. In the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason, I will rank at least 225 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

PPR Big Board - Top 200 Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1 RB1 Christian McCaffrey SF 10.2 2 RB2 Breece Hall NYJ 9.5 3 WR1 Tyreek Hill MIA 9.5 4 WR2 CeeDee Lamb DAL 8.9 5 RB3 Bijan Robinson ATL 8.0 6 WR3 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 7.3 7 WR4 Garrett Wilson NYJ 6.8 8 WR5 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 6.6 9 WR6 Justin Jefferson MIN 6.2 10 WR7 A.J. Brown PHI 6.0 11 RB4 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 5.8 12 RB5 Saquon Barkley PHI 5.7 13 RB6 Jonathan Taylor IND 5.7 14 WR8 Cooper Kupp LAR 4.9 15 RB7 Isiah Pacheco KC 4.4 16 RB8 Derrick Henry BAL 4.3 17 WR9 Puka Nacua LAR 4.3 18 WR10 Davante Adams LV 3.9 19 WR11 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI 3.5 20 WR12 DeVonta Smith PHI 3.4 21 WR13 Drake London ATL 3.2 22 WR14 Nico Collins HOU 3.1 23 WR15 Jaylen Waddle MIA 3.1 24 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 3.0 25 WR16 D.J. Moore CHI 3.0 26 WR17 Brandon Aiyuk SF 2.7 27 WR18 Chris Olave NO 2.7 28 WR19 DK Metcalf SEA 2.6 29 WR20 Malik Nabers NYG 2.5 30 WR21 Stefon Diggs HOU 2.5 31 RB9 Josh Jacobs GB 2.4 32 WR22 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 2.4 33 WR23 Terry McLaurin WAS 2.3 34 RB10 Joe Mixon HOU 2.3 35 RB11 Alvin Kamara NO 2.3 36 WR24 Calvin Ridley TEN 2.3 37 QB1 Jalen Hurts PHI 2.2 38 QB2 Patrick Mahomes KC 2.2 39 RB12 Kyren Williams LAR 2.2 40 WR25 Amari Cooper CLE 2.1 41 RB13 Travis Etienne JAC 2.1 42 WR26 Diontae Johnson CAR 2.1 43 RB14 De'Von Achane MIA 2.0 44 WR27 Tee Higgins CIN 2.0 45 WR28 Chris Godwin TB 2.0 46 WR29 Mike Evans TB 1.9 47 WR30 George Pickens PIT 1.9 48 TE2 Sam LaPorta DET 1.8 49 WR31 Christian Kirk JAC 1.8 50 RB15 James Conner ARI 1.8 51 WR32 Rashee Rice KC 1.7 52 RB16 Kenneth Walker SEA 1.7 53 RB17 Aaron Jones MIN 1.7 54 WR33 Marquise Brown KC 1.5 55 WR34 Zay Flowers BAL 1.4 56 RB18 Rachaad White TB 1.1 57 TE3 Mark Andrews BAL 0.9 58 RB19 Tony Pollard TEN 0.9 59 WR35 Deebo Samuel SF 0.8 60 RB20 Chase Brown CIN 0.8 61 RB21 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 0.7 62 QB3 Anthony Richardson IND 0.7 63 WR36 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 0.7 64 RB22 Jonathon Brooks CAR 0.7 65 TE4 Evan Engram JAC 0.6 66 QB4 Lamar Jackson BAL 0.6 67 WR37 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 0.6 68 RB23 Jaylen Warren PIT 0.6 69 WR38 Josh Downs IND 0.6 70 RB24 James Cook BUF 0.5 71 RB25 Najee Harris PIT 0.4 72 RB26 David Montgomery DET 0.4 73 TE5 Trey McBride ARI 0.3 74 WR39 Keenan Allen CHI 0.3 75 QB5 C.J. Stroud HOU 0.3 76 RB27 Tyjae Spears TEN 0.3 77 TE6 George Kittle SF 0.3 78 TE7 Kyle Pitts ATL 0.2 79 WR40 Tank Dell HOU 0.2 80 WR41 Jayden Reed GB 0.1 81 QB6 Josh Allen BUF 0.1 82 RB28 D'Andre Swift CHI -0.2 83 TE8 Jake Ferguson DAL -0.3 84 TE9 Dalton Kincaid BUF -0.6 85 WR42 Rashid Shaheed NO -0.7 86 RB29 Javonte Williams DEN -0.7 87 RB30 Zamir White LV -0.7 88 RB31 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -0.8 89 QB7 Joe Burrow CIN -0.8 90 WR43 Christian Watson GB -0.8 91 RB32 Austin Ekeler WAS -0.8 92 QB8 Kyler Murray ARI -0.9 93 QB9 Jayden Daniels WAS -1.0 94 TE10 Pat Freiermuth PIT -1.0 95 RB33 Jaleel McLaughlin DEN -1.0 96 WR44 Jahan Dotson WAS -1.0 97 RB34 Jerome Ford CLE -1.1 98 QB10 Dak Prescott DAL -1.3 99 WR45 Brian Thomas Jr. JAC -1.4 100 WR46 Ladd McConkey LAC -1.4 101 WR47 Brandin Cooks DAL -1.5 102 WR48 Courtland Sutton DEN -1.7 103 WR49 Tyler Lockett SEA -1.9 104 WR50 Curtis Samuel BUF -1.9 105 WR51 Darnell Mooney ATL -1.9 106 RB35 Raheem Mostert MIA -1.9 107 WR52 Jerry Jeudy CLE -2.1 108 RB36 Kimani Vidal LAC -2.1 109 TE11 David Njoku CLE -2.1 110 QB11 Jordan Love GB -2.2 111 WR53 Rome Odunze CHI -2.2 112 WR54 Adam Thielen CAR -2.2 113 WR55 Jameson Williams DET -2.2 114 WR56 Jordan Addison MIN -2.3 115 WR57 Rashod Bateman BAL -2.4 116 WR58 Khalil Shakir BUF -2.4 117 WR59 Jakobi Meyers LV -2.5 118 QB12 Caleb Williams CHI -2.5 119 TE12 Tyler Conklin NYJ -2.7 120 WR60 Josh Palmer LAC -2.8 121 QB13 Brock Purdy SF -2.8 122 TE13 Dalton Schultz HOU -2.8 123 WR61 Demarcus Robinson LAR -2.9 124 RB37 Devin Singletary NYG -2.9 125 TE14 Brock Bowers LV -3.0 126 RB38 Blake Corum LAR -3.0 127 WR62 Romeo Doubs GB -3.1 128 QB14 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -3.1 129 QB15 Trevor Lawrence JAC -3.1 130 QB16 Jared Goff DET -3.2 131 RB39 Gus Edwards LAC -3.3 132 RB40 Ezekiel Elliott DAL -3.3 133 WR63 Andrei Iosivas CIN -3.4 134 QB17 Aaron Rodgers NYJ -3.6 135 QB18 Geno Smith SEA -3.7 136 RB41 Chuba Hubbard CAR -3.7 137 RB42 Zach Charbonnet SEA -3.9 138 WR64 Demario Douglas NE -4.0 139 WR65 Dontayvion Wicks GB -4.0 140 QB19 Matthew Stafford LAR -4.1 141 TE15 Dallas Goedert PHI -4.1 142 RB43 Zack Moss CIN -4.3 143 QB20 Deshaun Watson CLE -4.3 144 QB21 Will Levis TEN -4.3 145 QB22 Daniel Jones NYG -4.4 146 WR66 Xavier Legette CAR -4.4 147 QB23 Justin Herbert LAC -4.5 148 WR67 Jalen McMillan TB -4.6 149 QB24 Kirk Cousins ATL -4.7 150 TE16 Noah Fant SEA -4.7 151 TE17 Jelani Woods IND -4.7 152 WR68 Marvin Mims DEN -4.7 153 TE18 Juwan Johnson NO -4.8 154 RB44 Bucky Irving TB -4.8 155 TE19 T.J. Hockenson MIN -4.8 156 RB45 Nick Chubb CLE -4.9 157 RB46 Ray Davis BUF -4.9 158 WR69 Gabe Davis JAC -5.1 159 WR70 Quentin Johnston LAC -5.1 160 RB47 MarShawn Lloyd GB -5.1 161 WR71 Michael Wilson ARI -5.2 162 TE20 Jonnu Smith MIA -5.2 163 WR72 Jalin Hyatt NYG -5.2 164 RB48 Khalil Herbert CHI -5.5 165 RB49 Ty Chandler MIN -5.5 166 WR73 Ja'Lynn Polk NE -5.5 167 WR74 Mike Williams NYJ -5.6 168 WR75 Josh Reynolds DEN -5.6 169 WR76 Tyler Boyd TEN -5.6 170 QB25 Baker Mayfield TB -5.6 171 WR77 Xavier Worthy KC -5.7 172 TE21 Cole Kmet CHI -5.7 173 RB50 Tyler Allgeier ATL -5.8 174 WR78 Cedric Tillman CLE -5.8 175 WR79 Greg Dortch ARI -5.9 176 RB51 Antonio Gibson NE -5.9 177 TE22 Mike Gesicki CIN -5.9 178 TE23 Colby Parkinson LAR -6.1 179 QB26 Derek Carr NO -6.3 180 RB52 Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG -6.3 181 RB53 Braelon Allen NYJ -6.5 182 RB54 Dylan Laube LV -6.5 183 QB27 Bryce Young CAR -6.6 184 TE24 Hunter Henry NE -6.7 185 RB55 Kendre Miller NO -6.7 186 WR80 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -6.8 187 WR81 Darius Slayton NYG -6.8 188 WR82 Jalen Tolbert DAL -6.8 189 RB56 Rico Dowdle DAL -6.9 190 RB57 Trey Benson ARI -6.9 191 TE25 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN -7.0 192 RB58 Roschon Johnson CHI -7.0 193 TE26 Isaiah Likely BAL -7.1 194 WR83 Jermaine Burton CIN -7.1 195 WR84 Javon Baker NE -7.1 196 WR85 Keon Coleman BUF -7.2 197 WR86 D.J. Chark LAC -7.3 198 WR87 Luke McCaffrey WAS -7.4 199 TE27 Cade Otton TB -7.6 200 RB59 Jaylen Wright MIA -7.8

PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC

Initial Draft Plan

Blue chipper is a term that gets used a lot more in college football recruiting, but it probably needs to be used a lot more in fantasy circles. It would behoove managers to think about fantasy drafts in the same way NFL general managers view the NFL Draft - at least in this regard. Just like in the NFL Draft, there are usually about seven or eight players - give or take - whom teams should take regardless of what is on their roster. A perfect example from this spring's draft was Brock Bowers. Was tight end a need for the Raiders? No. Can you find a way to use his unique talents and build your offense around him in the coming years as Davante Adams begins to decline? Absolutely. (The same thing is applicable in fantasy.) There are roughly another 10 college players who are widely considered to be first-round talents in April. That adds to 18 or so players. Just because there are 32 first-round picks does not mean there are 32 players worth going in the first round. Similarly, fantasy drafts sometimes provide managers with eight obvious first-round picks and 10 players worth taking in the second round.

The top 10 players listed above are there for a reason: they have the best combination of the many factors we consider in fantasy, such as elite talent, situation and/or scheme. (The top five have the fewest questions and the most upside - that much should be obvious to even the most casual fantasy manager.) The top 10 players are this year's blue-chippers. History tells us that maybe half of these players will disappoint, but that is also looking at the glass half-empty.

If a blue chipper falls into your lap, grab him. If another lasts until the second round, grab him too. Your job as a fantasy manager is to gain an edge with every pick if possible. Drafting a potential 100-catch, 1,400-yard, 8-10 touchdown receiver at 2.03 may not fit into the original draft plan, but it sure makes it difficult for the rest of your league to keep up if you have two of those players. Managers should enter the draft with a plan - maybe even a preference on how to build their team - but understand when an opportunity presents itself.

YOUR FIRST TWO OR THREE PICKS SET THE FOUNDATION FOR HOW/WHO YOU SHOULD DRAFT THE REST OF THE WAY. THE INABILITY TO RECOGNIZE VALUE EARLY WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE YOU TO REACH ON A PLAYER LATER.

As I have learned playing in the 14-team King's Classic over the years, a receiver-heavy approach is probably the way to go more often than not because the waiver wire may only present a handful of nuggets throughout the season. In other words, it makes sense to build more of an anti-fragile roster because one or two key injuries to a fantasy team in those leagues are usually catastrophic. A receiver-heavy approach also makes sense in best ball because upside and availability may be the two most important qualities our players can have in that format - in large part because there is no ability to add players during the season.

However, in a managed 12-team PPR league, our job as managers is to secure as much talent as possible during the draft and figure out how to manage it later. A sixth-round "need" pick at any position is going to look silly in late October if a player who had a fourth-round value was still available.

I am in the middle of a slow draft as we speak. The original plan was to select three receivers and a running back through four rounds and then grab a quarterback/running back and tight end in Rounds 5 and 6. My picks are as follows so far:

Garrett Wilson
Jahmyr Gibbs
Travis Kelce
Josh Jacobs
Terry McLaurin
James Conner

There are two points I want to make before moving on to some player analysis:

1) Let us assume receiver will be the weakest spot on my team, even though I have both players ranked inside my top 35. I desperately wanted to take a third receiver with my sixth-round pick. Yet, I decided I could not pass on a player who has averaged more points per game in each of his three seasons in Arizona (his 15.5 FPts/G in 2023 was his lowest since joining the Cardinals) than all but 17 receivers in 2023, 12 receivers in 2022 and 14 receivers in 2021. Assuming I am right about Jacobs and Conner, I will likely have the option of dealing Gibbs to the highest bidder if necessary - it is a given that someone will be interested in him. With that said, there is a lot of depth at receiver this season, so it may not come to that.

2) I spoke earlier about micro edges. Fantasy managers can get caught up in "my receivers are better than your receivers" or "my running backs stink compared to your running backs" thinking. Using the above team I am drafting as an example, I tend to look at lineups (I call them "cross matchups") as follows:

Kelce's 14.8 FPts/G last year was easily his lowest mark in nearly a decade. There is also not a time in recent memory in which 14.8 FPts/G would not have been good for at least mid-range WR2 status if we lump receivers and tight ends together. Assuming Kelce's dip in production was mostly a result of him being hobbled by his ankle injury for the first half of the season and the Chiefs' lack of speed all year long, I only need my WR3 to outperform other managers' tight end to gain an edge - perhaps a significant one.

Blue Chippers (1-10)

Christian McCaffrey sits atop the Big Board for the fourth time in five seasons, but the gap between him and the rest of the crowd is as narrow as it has been over that time. CMC is coming off a season in which he handled 417 touches - including the playoffs - and turned 28 in early June. Some backs can defy the age cliff and the post-heavy workload struggles better than others, and McCaffrey would seem to be one of those players. However, we are nearing the point of his career where it might be better to get out a year too early as opposed to a year too late. With that said, he has always been a disciplined athlete and keeps himself in great shape, so I choose to believe he has one more great season left in him.

Even though all of them come with some minor questions, there are no major surprises inside the top 10. Breece Hall rivals CMC in terms of upside, but when was the last time an Aaron Rodgers-led offense did not lean on Rodgers? Tyreek Hill is in his age-30 season. It is fair to wonder how much Jaylen Waddle being hurt last year contributed to Hill's huge season. CeeDee Lamb is holding out, which could become an issue if it lasts more than a couple more weeks. Atlanta's brain trust has told us Bijan Robinson will be fed like McCaffrey. While Tyler Allgeier is not in his class as a talent, he is also no slouch. I wonder about Allgeier taking something important away from Robinson, such as the occasional goal-line carry.

Ja'Marr Chase is the clear alpha in Cincinnati and easily one of the best receivers in the league, but his weekly volatility is on the borderline of what we hope for (expect?) from an elite WR1. Garrett Wilson has yet to prove it (although I suspect he will in 2024 with a healthy Rodgers), Justin Jefferson will be getting used to a downgrade at quarterback and Philadelphia introduced another mouth that needs to be fed (Saquon Barkley), which could slightly reduce how much volume A.J. Brown will see.

The Near Elite (11-25)

This is an interesting group of players, not only because some of them are already considered blue-chippers by some but also because I am sure the majority of people do not believe a few of them belong in this tier.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor are all knocking on the door of being considered blue-chippers this summer. Each one has a strong case, but each one comes with a question mark. Will Gibbs get enough volume? Will Barkley lose too many scoring opportunities to Jalen Hurts? Will Taylor get enough work in the passing game AND/OR lose too many scoring opportunities to Anthony Richardson? In the end, all of them are supremely talented backs who possess the kind of high floor and high ceiling that makes them players we should not allow to slide past the early part of the second round.

Derrick Henry, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Drake London and Marvin Harrison Jr. also tend to find their way into this area of the draft. Even Nico Collins. The players that require more explanation are Cooper Kupp, Isiah Pacheco and DeVonta Smith.

Depending on your perspective, Kupp is either a 31-year-old player whose body is breaking down and was overtaken by Nacua in the offense last season OR someone who has had two seasons of bad luck following one of the best (and busiest) seasons by a receiver in league history. He is either the second option in a good offense OR a player whose connection with his quarterback is as strong as any duo in the league. Nacua's recent knee injury only helps the cause for Kupp from a fantasy perspective. If/when both are healthy, I expect Kupp and Nacua to be a slightly more productive version of the Robert Woods-Kupp combo from a few years ago.

The Chiefs have cleared a path for Pacheco to be the man for the first time since Kareem Hunt was just getting started. It is up to Pacheco now to take advantage of the opportunity and stay on the field. Jerick McKinnon may not have been a critical piece in the Kansas City offense in 2023, but he was on the field for about a third of the team's offensive snaps. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has not made a discernible push to lock down the backup job and he would seem to be about the only other player on the roster who could occupy the "McKinnon role." If we assume that Pacheco maintains a similar rushing workload as last season (14.6 carries per game) and adds maybe a third to a half of McKinnon's work in the passing game, the possibility exists for a 300-touch season. At the very least, Pacheco's job should be much easier in 2024 with Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy discouraging defenses from crowding the line of scrimmage.

Smith's floor in what became a broken Philadelphia offense last season was WR16. The year before, he was the WR9. While the Eagles will likely not have a full-time slot per se, I believe Smith will see the most work there. In new OC Kellen Moore's offenses, being the primary slot option has been a good thing. While Smith may not be the next CeeDee Lamb (played under Moore from 2020-22) or Keenan Allen (2023), Moore's primary slot has been a source of much fantasy joy dating back to Randall Cobb's last decent season in 2019. Reports out of Philadelphia have informed us that rookie Johnny Wilson is making a push for third receiver duties. It seems unlikely the 6-7 Wilson or the 226-pound Brown will spend an abundance of time in the slot, which would leave the lightning-quick Smith as a great alternative inside. Admittedly, I have him projected to score fewer points than the three receivers directly below him, but the 12 green matchups were enough for him to get the nod in this week's submission.

Coming off his first substandard season in what seems like a generation, the industry is down on Travis Kelce. This has to be the first time in several years that managers can draft McCaffrey and Kelce. I am not saying (yet) that it is the greatest idea, but imagine the possibilities of having the two players who have been the greatest positional advantages over the last five or so years on the same team.

Four Stars (26-56)

This group does not need much help to move up into one of the earlier two groups, but every one of them has a noticeable wart or two. Two of the poster boys in this range are Kyren Williams and De'Von Achane. Williams' projected 17 FPts/G should have him easily in the middle or late part of the second round, but durability has been an issue early in his NFL career and virtually no one expects him to handle 21-plus touches per game like last year. Furthermore, his foot has already been an issue this offseason. It also sounds like rookie Blake Corum was added in the draft to keep Williams fresh, which sounds a lot like a player who will probably steal at least five touches per game (or a drive every half) from Williams.

Achane's situation is similar yet very different from Williams'. Among the similarities: both are undersized and missed a handful of games last season. Among the differences is that Achane could not stay healthy on a lighter workload. There are also other complicating variables with Achane. While the Texas A&M product is a master of efficiency (not unlike Jahmyr Gibbs), Raheem Mostert is still around to keep Achane's workload from spiking too much.

There is also the matter of the Miami offensive line. While Mike McDaniel can scheme up an offense - and get his players out in space as well as anyone - the offensive line may be in the worst shape it has been in during the McDaniel era. Again, these obstacles can be overcome to some degree with a great play-caller and great talent, but it usually takes volume to do it. I am projecting Achane for about 70 more touches in 2024, but will that be enough? Managers should not allow themselves to be thrown off by his gaudy yard-per-carry averages in his first three full games as a rookie. While Achane may push six yards per carry even with everything I have mentioned already working against him (I have projected for 5.6 YPC), that is still a lot to overcome.

Before we get too far with this group, I want to address why Deebo Samuel is so low. Players who we can expect to miss multiple games (like Samuel) are punished for it within SSI. Samuel would be right outside the top 25 for me if he was not such a likely candidate to miss time. Incidentally, Achane and James Conner would also both be second-round values.

We find our first quarterbacks in this group. In what likely be a surprise to many, Josh Allen is not included. (More on that later.) Patrick Mahomes has his best supporting cast since at least 2020 and probably the best of his career if we include the offensive line. For now, managers are advised to side with Hurts' legs and his goal-line prowess, but the line between him and Mahomes is razor-thin.

The discourse surrounding Josh Jacobs has been interesting this summer, to say the least. The masses appear to be surprised he had a down season in 2023 when it should have been somewhat obvious. (He was No. 54 and the RB20 on my final PPR Big Board when he was typically going in the second or early third round in many drafts.) I said the following around late last August: "Running backs who report late to camp typically do not fare well, nor do players coming off seasons where they logged nearly 400 touches." Jacobs met expectations for the situation he found himself in last summer - do not punish him for it now. He leaves for a better situation - or at least a better offense - and Green Bay showed him how much it valued him by cutting ties with a player it loved in Aaron Jones. The Packers added MarShawn Lloyd - a player who never topped 116 carries or 18 catches in college - in the third round of the draft. Fantasy managers have responded by pushing Jacobs back about two rounds and seem legitimately afraid Lloyd will be much more than a breather back in 2024. Jacobs probably will not get 300 touches, but it would be shocking if he is not the clear lead back.

While we are on the subject of Jacobs, I would suspect an organization as good as the Packers understood what he is when they pursued him in free agency: a volume rusher who is one of the best backs in the league after contact. There is also some discussion regarding HC Matt LaFleur being a committee backfield coach. Jones' arrival predated LaFleur's. What was he supposed to do? Pound Jones into the ground when he proved unable to carry a heavy workload year after year? Dump a highly productive and efficient back carrying a very manageable cap number during the final years of Aaron Rodgers' time in Green Bay? No offense to any AJ Dillon or Lloyd loyalists out there, but what exactly has either one proved to justify fading a 26-year-old former rushing champion?

Fantasy managers have been waiting for Terry McLaurin to make the transition from rock-solid consistent WR2 to WR1. In some ways, he is the new D.J. Moore - a highly productive player resigned to good but not great production due to a steady influx of sub-par quarterbacks. Last year's tag team of Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett may have been the best he has played with to this point. Enter Jayden Daniels, who has injected more hope in Washington's offense than any quarterback has since at least Robert Griffin III. There may not be an immediate ascension into superstardom for McLaurin, but it is a good bet he - just like Moore - will find his way into 90 catches with a quarterback capable of lighting up defenses with his accuracy or his legs. Daniels will quickly prove to be the real deal. McLaurin is the overwhelming favorite to benefit the most from it.

Pour One Out For The Bills

As I alluded to earlier, Bills Mafia will not be happy with me. One of the reasons why Buffalo players' ranking is depressed is because I am projecting Josh Allen to miss a game for only the second time in four seasons. However, that is only a minor contributing factor. There have only been two quarterbacks in league history to run the ball at least 100 times in a season at Allen's current age (28): Cam Newton and Michael Vick. Suffice it to say neither quarterback enjoyed more than one more good rushing season after that.

There is more. The loss of Stefon Diggs will hurt because defenses will no longer have to account for the presence of an alpha receiver. Coverage schemes change as a result. Dalton Kincaid is a very good NFL tight end, but can he beat defenses that know he is likely now Allen's primary target? Can Keon Coleman be what Buffalo wanted Gabe Davis to be? Are Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir good enough to scare defenses? Allen's rise to prominence coincided with the acquisition of Diggs. The likelihood is that Allen has reached a point in his development where he no longer needs an alpha to be a great quarterback, but let's not pretend that his current situation does not bear some resemblance to the one Patrick Mahomes faced last year. Buffalo's current receivers/pass-catchers are better than what the Chiefs gave Mahomes in 2023, but it is not by much.

James Cook is a solid NFL back who proved many doubters wrong about his ability to handle a heavy workload last year. Or did he? Cook did not consistently begin to take on a heavy workload until Week 11. Over those four weeks (Weeks 11-14), he averaged 5.2 yards per carry and caught 16 of 19 targets for 211 yards while accounting for four of his six touchdowns on the season. Over his last three games, he averaged 3.1 YPC, caught four of seven targets for 12 yards and fumbled twice. Did he wear down? Quite likely. Managers seem keen on drafting him in the fourth round this summer despite the fact Buffalo added a powerful back in Ray Davis, who should end any chance Cook had of seeing regular goal-line work. While Buffalo could cut back Cook's work as a runner (237 carries in 2023) and give him more work as a receiver (44 catches), how much more work is he going to see? Is 60 receptions a realistic number? The point to be made here is that Cook is unlikely to see heavy volume, possesses little to no less TD upside and has a capable back pushing him for work now in what will likely be a worse offense than last year.

Kincaid will soon be a star in the NFL. It is my belief in him that I have him as high as I do. Perhaps I am reading too much into last season, but Kincaid still has a Dawson Knox problem. Let's just say the difference in Kincaid's production when Knox played and when he didn't was notable. Kincaid did not score a touchdown in nine games with Knox playing and averaged 7.7 fantasy points in those outings. In seven games without Kincaid, he scored twice and averaged 12 fantasy points. Perhaps the emphasis on getting Kincaid the ball will change now that Diggs is no longer an option, but wasn't Diggs mostly an afterthought once OC Joe Brady took over last year? I have already participated in drafts recently in which Kincaid was selected before Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. I do not see how Kincaid will perform anywhere close to that level in 2024.

Ending On A High Note

Note: Due to my annual trip to Ohio for the King's Classic and the Fantasy Football Expo, you will see nothing but Big Boards between now and Aug. 20. When I return to writing in a couple of weeks, I intend on spending more time on players after the 10th round (when most fantasy teams have secured their starters).

Without question, one of the players I am sure I will be heavy on is Josh Downs. Not only did he earn 98 targets despite playing through a knee injury as a rookie, but he also was highly involved in the offense for the short time that Anthony Richardson was running it. While I do not look at ADP much other than when I am doing research for an article, it appears he is typically going in the 12th round or later and considered a back-end WR5. I cannot imagine a scenario in which he stays healthy and fails to push for 80 catches. That is at least a WR3 even if he suffers from bad touchdown luck.

Nick Chubb is a player I will gladly try to push up the board as the season nears, but there are simply too many unknowns at this point. I have projected him to miss the first four games and five overall. Those likely absences combined with what figures to be a bit of a ramp-up period upon his return are the primary reasons he is where he is as opposed to a 10th-round option. With that said, he is a great swing for the fences for any owner who spent the first 10 or so rounds investing heavily at quarterback, receiver and tight end and is looking for an upside RB3 or RB4 pick.

I am leaving every draft with Justin Fields if possible. Name another "backup" quarterback available in the last round of drafts who has already proven he is capable of being a fantasy QB1. The funny thing is that the possibility of him being the starting quarterback in Pittsburgh sooner than later is not that far-fetched.