Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst who does not consider it at all.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red – For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow – For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green – For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "FPos" column).

Over the next two weeks, I will release the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason. I will rank at least 225 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

Superflex Big Board (PPR) - Top 200 Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1 QB1 Jalen Hurts PHI 9.7 2 QB2 Patrick Mahomes KC 9.6 3 RB1 Christian McCaffrey SF 9.6 4 RB2 Breece Hall NYJ 9.5 5 WR1 Tyreek Hill MIA 9.2 6 RB3 Bijan Robinson ATL 9.0 7 WR2 CeeDee Lamb DAL 8.9 8 QB3 Anthony Richardson IND 8.2 9 QB4 Lamar Jackson BAL 8.1 10 QB5 C.J. Stroud HOU 7.8 11 QB6 Josh Allen BUF 7.6 12 WR3 Garrett Wilson NYJ 7.1 13 WR4 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 6.9 14 QB7 Joe Burrow CIN 6.7 15 WR5 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 6.6 16 QB8 Kyler Murray ARI 6.6 17 WR6 A.J. Brown PHI 6.4 18 QB9 Jayden Daniels WAS 6.2 19 QB10 Dak Prescott DAL 6.2 20 RB4 Saquon Barkley PHI 6.0 21 RB5 Jonathan Taylor IND 5.9 22 RB6 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 5.9 23 WR7 Justin Jefferson MIN 5.8 24 QB11 Jordan Love GB 5.4 25 QB12 Caleb Williams CHI 5.0 26 WR8 Cooper Kupp LAR 4.9 27 QB13 Brock Purdy SF 4.8 28 RB7 Isiah Pacheco KC 4.5 29 QB14 Trevor Lawrence JAC 4.4 30 RB8 Derrick Henry BAL 4.3 31 QB15 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 4.3 32 QB16 Jared Goff DET 4.3 33 WR9 Puka Nacua LAR 4.3 34 QB17 Aaron Rodgers NYJ 3.9 35 QB18 Geno Smith SEA 3.9 36 WR10 Davante Adams LV 3.9 37 QB19 Matthew Stafford LAR 3.9 38 QB20 Justin Herbert LAC 3.8 39 WR11 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI 3.5 40 QB21 Kirk Cousins ATL 3.2 41 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 3.1 42 WR12 Drake London ATL 3.1 43 WR13 Jaylen Waddle MIA 3.1 44 QB22 Daniel Jones NYG 3.1 45 WR14 DeVonta Smith PHI 3.1 46 QB23 Deshaun Watson CLE 3.1 47 QB24 Will Levis TEN 3.1 48 WR15 DK Metcalf SEA 3.0 49 WR16 D.J. Moore CHI 3.0 50 WR17 Malik Nabers NYG 2.9 51 RB9 Josh Jacobs GB 2.8 52 WR18 Chris Olave NO 2.7 53 WR19 Terry McLaurin WAS 2.7 54 WR20 Nico Collins HOU 2.7 55 WR21 Stefon Diggs HOU 2.7 56 RB10 Kyren Williams LAR 2.7 57 WR22 Brandon Aiyuk SF 2.7 58 RB11 Kenneth Walker SEA 2.5 59 WR23 Amari Cooper CLE 2.5 60 QB25 Baker Mayfield TB 2.5 61 WR24 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 2.4 62 WR25 Mike Evans TB 2.3 63 RB12 Joe Mixon HOU 2.3 64 RB13 Alvin Kamara NO 2.3 65 WR26 Calvin Ridley TEN 2.3 66 WR27 George Pickens PIT 2.1 67 WR28 Diontae Johnson CAR 2.1 68 RB14 De'Von Achane MIA 2.0 69 WR29 Tee Higgins CIN 2.0 70 WR30 Chris Godwin TB 2.0 71 WR31 Rashee Rice KC 2.0 72 RB15 Travis Etienne JAC 1.9 73 WR32 Deebo Samuel SF 1.8 74 TE2 Sam LaPorta DET 1.8 75 WR33 Zay Flowers BAL 1.8 76 WR34 Christian Kirk JAC 1.8 77 RB16 James Conner ARI 1.8 78 RB17 Aaron Jones MIN 1.7 79 RB18 Rachaad White TB 1.5 80 QB26 Derek Carr NO 1.2 81 TE3 Kyle Pitts ATL 1.0 82 TE4 Mark Andrews BAL 0.9 83 QB27 Bryce Young CAR 0.9 84 RB19 James Cook BUF 0.9 85 RB20 David Montgomery DET 0.8 86 RB21 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 0.7 87 WR35 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 0.7 88 RB22 Tony Pollard TEN 0.7 89 TE5 Evan Engram JAC 0.6 90 WR36 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 0.6 91 RB23 Najee Harris PIT 0.5 92 RB24 Tyjae Spears TEN 0.4 93 RB25 Jaylen Warren PIT 0.4 94 TE6 Trey McBride ARI 0.3 95 WR37 Keenan Allen CHI 0.3 96 TE7 George Kittle SF 0.3 97 WR38 Tank Dell HOU 0.2 98 WR39 Jayden Reed GB 0.1 99 TE8 Jake Ferguson DAL 0.1 100 WR40 Marquise Brown KC -0.1 101 WR41 Josh Downs IND -0.1 102 RB26 D'Andre Swift CHI -0.2 103 RB27 Raheem Mostert MIA -0.2 104 RB28 Zamir White LV -0.3 105 RB29 Chase Brown CIN -0.3 106 RB30 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -0.4 107 RB31 Jonathon Brooks CAR -0.4 108 RB32 Javonte Williams DEN -0.4 109 TE9 Dalton Kincaid BUF -0.6 110 RB33 Austin Ekeler WAS -0.6 111 WR42 Christian Watson GB -0.8 112 WR43 Brian Thomas Jr. JAC -1.0 113 RB34 Jerome Ford CLE -1.0 114 RB35 Jaleel McLaughlin DEN -1.0 115 WR44 Rashid Shaheed NO -1.0 116 WR45 Darnell Mooney ATL -1.1 117 WR46 Ladd McConkey LAC -1.4 118 WR47 Brandin Cooks DAL -1.5 119 WR48 Courtland Sutton DEN -1.7 120 TE10 David Njoku CLE -1.8 121 TE11 Pat Freiermuth PIT -1.9 122 WR49 Tyler Lockett SEA -1.9 123 WR50 Curtis Samuel BUF -1.9 124 WR51 Demario Douglas NE -1.9 125 WR52 Jerry Jeudy CLE -2.1 126 WR53 Jakobi Meyers LV -2.1 127 WR54 Rome Odunze CHI -2.2 128 WR55 Adam Thielen CAR -2.2 129 WR56 Jameson Williams DET -2.2 130 WR57 Jordan Addison MIN -2.3 131 QB28 Bo Nix DEN -2.3 132 WR58 Khalil Shakir BUF -2.3 133 WR59 Josh Palmer LAC -2.4 134 WR60 Demarcus Robinson LAR -2.5 135 WR61 Jahan Dotson WAS -2.6 136 TE12 Brock Bowers LV -2.6 137 QB29 Aidan O'Connell LV -2.7 138 TE13 Tyler Conklin NYJ -2.7 139 TE14 Dalton Schultz HOU -2.8 140 RB36 Devin Singletary NYG -2.9 141 RB37 Blake Corum LAR -2.9 142 WR62 Rashod Bateman BAL -3.0 143 WR63 Romeo Doubs GB -3.1 144 RB38 Chuba Hubbard CAR -3.4 145 WR64 Andrei Iosivas CIN -3.4 146 RB39 Nick Chubb CLE -3.5 147 RB40 Gus Edwards LAC -3.7 148 RB41 Zack Moss CIN -3.8 149 WR65 Dontayvion Wicks GB -4.0 150 TE15 Dallas Goedert PHI -4.1 151 RB42 Ezekiel Elliott DAL -4.1 152 WR66 Xavier Legette CAR -4.4 153 QB30 Russell Wilson PIT -4.6 154 WR67 Josh Reynolds DEN -4.6 155 RB43 Zach Charbonnet SEA -4.6 156 WR68 Jalen McMillan TB -4.6 157 TE16 Noah Fant SEA -4.7 158 TE17 Jelani Woods IND -4.7 159 TE18 Juwan Johnson NO -4.8 160 RB44 Bucky Irving TB -4.8 161 TE19 T.J. Hockenson MIN -4.8 162 RB45 Ray Davis BUF -4.9 163 WR69 Gabe Davis JAC -5.1 164 WR70 Mike Williams NYJ -5.1 165 WR71 Xavier Worthy KC -5.1 166 WR72 Michael Wilson ARI -5.2 167 TE20 Jonnu Smith MIA -5.2 168 WR73 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -5.2 169 WR74 Jalin Hyatt NYG -5.3 170 WR75 Quentin Johnston LAC -5.5 171 RB46 Khalil Herbert CHI -5.5 172 RB47 Ty Chandler MIN -5.5 173 WR76 Ja'Lynn Polk NE -5.5 174 WR77 Tyler Boyd TEN -5.6 175 TE21 Cole Kmet CHI -5.7 176 TE22 Taysom Hill NO -5.7 177 WR78 Cedric Tillman CLE -5.8 178 WR79 Greg Dortch ARI -5.9 179 RB48 Antonio Gibson NE -5.9 180 TE23 Mike Gesicki CIN -5.9 181 WR80 Marvin Mims DEN -6.1 182 TE24 Colby Parkinson LAR -6.1 183 TE25 Isaiah Likely BAL -6.1 184 RB49 MarShawn Lloyd GB -6.1 185 RB50 Tyler Allgeier ATL -6.2 186 RB51 Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG -6.3 187 RB52 Rico Dowdle DAL -6.3 188 WR81 Jalen Tolbert DAL -6.4 189 RB53 Braelon Allen NYJ -6.5 190 RB54 Kimani Vidal LAC -6.6 191 TE26 Hunter Henry NE -6.7 192 RB55 Dylan Laube LV -6.9 193 RB56 Trey Benson ARI -6.9 194 RB57 Roschon Johnson CHI -7.0 195 RB58 Kendre Miller NO -7.0 196 WR82 Javon Baker NE -7.1 197 QB31 Sam Darnold MIN -7.2 198 WR83 Keon Coleman BUF -7.2 199 RB59 J.K. Dobbins LAC -7.7 200 QB32 Justin Fields PIT -7.7

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