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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 150 Big Board, FFPC High-Stakes League
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/20/19
TFC | FPPC

Just like in every other fantasy football league, each week is important. Unlike most leagues, there is at least a $250,000 grand prize (or more, depending on the league the competition you choose to enter) waiting for the lucky owner who is able to mix regular-season success with postseason dominance with the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). That means as important as matchups are in the first 11 weeks (two-week, four-team playoffs start in Week 12), they are exponentially more important in the run during the Championship Round (Weeks 14-16).

The point to be made here is December is critical not only for collecting the $1,500 owners get for winning their league, but also to make sure they stack enough high-scoring weeks on top of one another over the remainder of the season in order to keep themselves in the running for the big prize. In short, it is advantageous for owners to line up as many late favorable matchups as possible for their best players.

There is one major scoring difference from the TFC Big Board published earlier this week: the FFPC uses tight end-premium scoring, which means tight ends receive 1.5 points for every catch as opposed to the standard one point per reception every other position gets.

Another nuance is one FFPC veterans are already quite familiar with: some owners are going to have key players unavailable for the first week of their playoffs since the FFPC postseason begins in Week 12.

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the SSI concept as well as the color-coding system before we start:

SSI (Success Score Index) - A rankings metric that incorporates my fantasy-point projections and includes a weight to my matchup analysis score. In other words, it allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions.

Red – For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow – For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green – For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: In the final set of Big Boards over the following two weeks, I will rank at least 200 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the FFPC format:

 FFPC Big Board - Top 150
Rank Pos Player Tm Age FPts SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 RB1 Alvin Kamara NO 24 366.5 217.5
2 RB2 Christian McCaffrey CAR 23 363.0 215.0
3 RB3 Saquon Barkley NYG 22 372.2 212.2
4 RB4 David Johnson ARI 27 317.9 159.9
5 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 29 325.6 147.6
6 RB5 James Conner PIT 24 300.5 146.5
7 WR1 Davante Adams GB 26 311.0 144.0
8 WR2 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 27 324.3 143.3
9 WR3 Julio Jones ATL 30 310.4 141.4
10 RB6 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 24 299.3 139.3
11 RB7 Le'Veon Bell NYJ 27 294.1 138.1
12 RB8 Dalvin Cook MIN 24 287.2 137.2
13 WR4 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 22 312.6 131.6
14 RB9 Nick Chubb CLE 23 273.4 110.4
15 RB10 Todd Gurley LAR 25 266.2 110.2
16 TE2 George Kittle SF 25 277.1 109.1
17 RB11 Joe Mixon CIN 23 273.0 105.0
18 WR5 Michael Thomas NO 26 271.8 103.8
19 TE3 Zach Ertz PHI 28 276.0 102.0
20 RB12 Chris Carson SEA 24 260.3 96.3
21 WR6 Tyreek Hill KC 25 271.1 95.1
22 RB13 Leonard Fournette JAC 24 259.8 92.8
23 WR7 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 26 277.9 88.9
24 WR8 Adam Thielen MIN 28 257.8 88.8
25 WR9 Mike Evans TB 25 272.3 85.3
26 RB14 Devonta Freeman ATL 27 248.5 84.5
27 RB15 Kerryon Johnson DET 22 246.9 80.9
28 RB16 David Montgomery CHI 22 235.9 79.9
29 WR10 Stefon Diggs MIN 25 255.8 74.8
30 WR11 Keenan Allen LAC 27 247.3 74.3
31 RB17 Marlon Mack IND 23 237.9 73.9
32 TE4 O.J. Howard TB 24 243.2 73.2
33 RB18 Damien Williams KC 27 233.1 73.1
34 RB19 Aaron Jones GB 24 237.3 72.3
35 WR12 Chris Godwin TB 23 236.3 72.3
36 RB20 Melvin Gordon LAC 26 238.6 71.6
37 RB21 Josh Jacobs OAK 21 247.5 71.5
38 RB22 Mark Ingram BAL 29 226.8 69.8
39 RB23 Derrick Henry TEN 25 237.3 69.3
40 WR13 Amari Cooper DAL 25 249.8 65.8
41 WR14 T.Y. Hilton IND 29 238.8 63.8
42 QB1 Patrick Mahomes KC 23 433.0 60.5
43 WR15 Julian Edelman NE 33 222.1 56.1
44 RB24 James White NE 27 213.9 55.9
45 QB2 Deshaun Watson HOU 23 423.5 55.0
46 WR16 Robert Woods LAR 27 222.4 53.4
47 WR17 Tyler Boyd CIN 24 232.1 52.1
48 WR18 Antonio Brown OAK 31 217.9 50.9
49 RB25 Kenyan Drake MIA 25 209.5 50.5
50 WR19 Brandin Cooks LAR 25 236.6 47.6
51 WR20 Calvin Ridley ATL 24 218.2 46.2
52 QB3 Aaron Rodgers GB 35 408.8 41.3
53 WR21 D.J. Moore CAR 22 221.8 40.8
54 WR22 Mike Williams LAC 24 215.4 39.4
55 WR23 Kenny Golladay DET 25 225.2 39.2
56 WR24 Tyler Lockett SEA 26 216.2 39.2
57 WR25 Cooper Kupp LAR 26 199.1 39.1
58 TE5 Evan Engram NYG 24 220.3 37.3
59 TE6 Hunter Henry LAC 24 223.2 37.2
60 TE7 Jared Cook NO 32 210.2 36.2
61 RB26 Tarik Cohen CHI 24 192.0 36.0
62 RB27 Sony Michel NE 24 196.2 35.2
63 WR26 Curtis Samuel CAR 23 208.2 30.2
64 TE8 Vance McDonald PIT 29 211.7 29.7
65 WR27 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 35 201.5 29.5
66 RB28 Phillip Lindsay DEN 25 198.4 29.4
67 RB29 Miles Sanders PHI 22 180.7 27.7
68 WR28 Allen Robinson CHI 25 217.0 27.0
69 WR29 Alshon Jeffery PHI 29 207.7 22.7
70 WR30 Robby Anderson NYJ 26 216.5 21.5
71 TE9 Darren Waller OAK 26 204.1 17.1
72 WR31 Jarvis Landry CLE 26 194.6 16.6
73 QB4 Carson Wentz PHI 26 380.8 16.3
74 RB30 Tevin Coleman SF 26 174.1 16.1
75 QB5 Cam Newton CAR 30 382.4 15.9
76 RB31 Austin Ekeler LAC 24 184.8 15.8
77 QB6 Matt Ryan ATL 34 383.7 15.2
78 WR32 Anthony Miller CHI 24 191.8 14.8
79 WR33 Sammy Watkins KC 26 196.6 14.6
80 QB7 Jameis Winston TB 25 383.8 14.3
81 WR34 Dede Westbrook JAC 25 192.1 14.1
82 RB32 Lamar Miller* HOU 28 194.0 14.0
83 TE10 Austin Hooper ATL 24 200.2 13.2
84 WR35 Christian Kirk ARI 22 196.1 12.1
85 WR36 A.J. Green CIN 31 203.7 11.7
86 TE11 David Njoku CLE 23 197.4 11.4
87 TE12 Eric Ebron IND 26 183.2 9.2
88 RB33 Latavius Murray NO 29 184.4 8.4
89 QB8 Baker Mayfield CLE 24 383.5 8.0
90 RB34 Rashaad Penny SEA 23 171.6 7.6
91 WR37 DeSean Jackson PHI 32 179.3 7.3
92 TE13 Jordan Reed WAS 29 191.3 6.3
93 QB9 Kyler Murray ARI 22 372.7 6.2
94 TE14 Delanie Walker TEN 35 187.7 5.7
95 WR38 Marvin Jones DET 29 183.3 3.3
96 WR39 Jamison Crowder NYJ 26 182.0 3.0
97 WR40 Sterling Shepard NYG 26 190.4 0.4
98 QB10 Andrew Luck IND 29 369.8 0.3
99 RB35 Royce Freeman DEN 23 169.0 0.0
100 QB11 Russell Wilson SEA 30 365.4 -2.1
101 TE15 Mark Andrews BAL 23 181.4 -2.6
102 WR41 Geronimo Allison* GB 25 169.0 -3.0
103 WR42 Courtland Sutton DEN 23 191.5 -3.5
104 RB36 Ronald Jones TB 22 173.4 -3.6
105 RB37 Darwin Thompson KC 22 156.0 -4.0
106 RB38 Dion Lewis TEN 28 166.8 -4.2
107 WR43 Will Fuller HOU 25 177.2 -4.9
108 WR44 Donte Moncrief PIT 26 182.5 -7.5
109 RB39 Jordan Howard* PHI 24 158.3 -8.7
110 QB12 Jared Goff LAR 24 355.6 -8.9
111 RB40 Darrell Henderson LAR 22 151.0 -10.0
112 RB41 LeSean McCoy BUF 31 168.4 -11.6
113 RB42 Matt Breida SF 24 146.4 -11.6
114 RB43 Jaylen Samuels PIT 23 152.3 -11.7
115 QB13 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 37 357.8 -11.7
116 WR45 Corey Davis TEN 24 183.0 -12.0
117 RB44 Duke Johnson HOU 25 167.5 -12.5
118 TE16 Chris Herndon NYJ 23 163.8 -13.2
119 WR46 Tyrell Williams OAK 27 169.1 -15.9
120 RB45 Kalen Ballage MIA 23 160.6 -16.4
121 WR47 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 24 161.4 -18.6
122 QB14 Dak Prescott DAL 26 351.0 -19.5
123 WR48 Dante Pettis* SF 23 162.1 -19.9
124 QB15 Kirk Cousins MIN 31 355.3 -21.2
125 RB46 Justice Hill BAL 21 137.8 -21.2
126 TE17 Jimmy Graham* GB 32 166.6 -21.4
127 RB47 Giovani Bernard CIN 27 152.6 -21.4
128 QB16 Lamar Jackson BAL 22 352.4 -23.1
129 QB17 Drew Brees NO 40 344.2 -24.3
130 WR49 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 32 161.8 -25.2
131 WR50 Mohamed Sanu ATL 29 158.1 -25.9
132 WR51 Keke Coutee HOU 22 151.9 -26.1
133 WR52 Trey Quinn WAS 23 151.0 -27.0
134 RB48 Damien Harris NE 22 133.4 -27.6
135 WR53 Josh Gordon NE 28 149.8 -28.2
136 QB18 Philip Rivers LAC 37 339.2 -28.3
137 WR54 Golden Tate NYG 31 152.3 -28.7
138 WR55 Michael Gallup DAL 23 146.5 -31.5
139 RB49 Chris Thompson WAS 28 141.4 -31.6
140 TE18 Trey Burton CHI 27 159.9 -32.2
141 RB50 Adrian Peterson* WAS 34 145.2 -32.8
142 QB19 Mitchell Trubisky CHI 25 346.0 -34.5
143 RB51 Derrius Guice WAS 22 139.8 -38.2
144 TE19 Dallas Goedert PHI 25 133.0 -41.0
145 RB52 Alexander Mattison MIN 21 126.8 -42.2
146 WR56 DeVante Parker MIA 26 151.4 -42.6
147 TE20 T.J. Hockenson DET 22 148.4 -42.6
148 RB53 Nyheim Hines IND 22 135.2 -44.8
149 RB54 Peyton Barber* TB 25 133.3 -45.7
150 RB55 Tony Pollard DAL 22 125.6 -48.4

TFC Big Board




Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.