Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst who does not consider it at all.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red – For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow – For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green – For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos" column).

Over the next two weeks, I will release my second and final Big Boards for Half-PPR, Superflex and Standard leagues as well as the FFPC Big Boards. I will present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams in the coming days.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

PPR Big Board - Top 225 Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1 RB1 Breece Hall NYJ 9.6 2 RB2 Christian McCaffrey SF 9.6 3 RB3 Bijan Robinson ATL 9.4 4 WR1 Tyreek Hill MIA 9.2 5 WR2 CeeDee Lamb DAL 8.9 6 WR3 Garrett Wilson NYJ 7.1 7 WR4 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 6.6 8 WR5 A.J. Brown PHI 6.4 9 WR6 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 6.3 10 WR7 Justin Jefferson MIN 6.2 11 RB4 Saquon Barkley PHI 6.1 12 RB5 Jonathan Taylor IND 5.9 13 RB6 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 5.9 14 WR8 Cooper Kupp LAR 4.9 15 RB7 Isiah Pacheco KC 4.5 16 WR9 Puka Nacua LAR 4.3 17 WR10 Davante Adams LV 3.9 18 WR11 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI 3.5 19 RB8 Derrick Henry BAL 3.2 20 WR12 Drake London ATL 3.1 21 WR13 Jaylen Waddle MIA 3.1 22 RB9 Josh Jacobs GB 3.1 23 WR14 DeVonta Smith PHI 3.1 24 WR15 DK Metcalf SEA 3.0 25 WR16 D.J. Moore CHI 3.0 26 WR17 Malik Nabers NYG 2.9 27 RB10 De'Von Achane MIA 2.9 28 WR18 Chris Olave NO 2.7 29 WR19 Terry McLaurin WAS 2.7 30 WR20 Nico Collins HOU 2.7 31 WR21 Stefon Diggs HOU 2.7 32 RB11 Kenneth Walker SEA 2.5 33 WR22 Amari Cooper CLE 2.5 34 RB12 Kyren Williams LAR 2.5 35 RB13 Joe Mixon HOU 2.4 36 WR23 Mike Evans TB 2.3 37 WR24 Chris Godwin TB 2.3 38 WR25 Calvin Ridley TEN 2.3 39 WR26 Diontae Johnson CAR 2.2 40 RB14 Alvin Kamara NO 2.2 41 WR27 Deebo Samuel SF 2.2 42 WR28 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 2.2 43 WR29 Brandon Aiyuk SF 2.2 44 WR30 Rashee Rice KC 2.2 45 WR31 George Pickens PIT 2.1 46 QB1 Patrick Mahomes KC 2.1 47 QB2 Jalen Hurts PHI 2.1 48 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 2.1 49 WR32 Tee Higgins CIN 2.0 50 RB15 Travis Etienne JAC 1.8 51 TE2 Sam LaPorta DET 1.8 52 WR33 Zay Flowers BAL 1.8 53 WR34 Christian Kirk JAC 1.8 54 RB16 James Conner ARI 1.8 55 RB17 Aaron Jones MIN 1.7 56 TE3 Kyle Pitts ATL 1.3 57 TE4 Mark Andrews BAL 0.9 58 RB18 Rachaad White TB 0.9 59 RB19 James Cook BUF 0.9 60 RB20 Najee Harris PIT 0.9 61 RB21 David Montgomery DET 0.8 62 WR35 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 0.7 63 QB3 Anthony Richardson IND 0.7 64 QB4 Lamar Jackson BAL 0.6 65 TE5 Evan Engram JAC 0.6 66 WR36 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 0.6 67 RB22 Tyjae Spears TEN 0.6 68 QB5 Josh Allen BUF 0.6 69 TE6 Dalton Kincaid BUF 0.5 70 RB23 Tony Pollard TEN 0.5 71 RB24 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 0.4 72 TE7 Trey McBride ARI 0.3 73 WR37 Keenan Allen CHI 0.3 74 TE8 George Kittle SF 0.3 75 WR38 Tank Dell HOU 0.2 76 WR39 Jayden Reed GB 0.1 77 TE9 Jake Ferguson DAL 0.1 78 RB25 D'Andre Swift CHI 0.1 79 WR40 Marquise Brown KC 0.0 80 QB6 C.J. Stroud HOU 0.0 81 RB26 Javonte Williams DEN 0.0 82 WR41 Josh Downs IND -0.1 83 RB27 Raheem Mostert MIA -0.2 84 RB28 Jaylen Warren PIT -0.3 85 RB29 Zamir White LV -0.3 86 RB30 Chase Brown CIN -0.3 87 RB31 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -0.4 88 RB32 Jonathon Brooks CAR -0.4 89 WR42 Rome Odunze CHI -0.4 90 RB33 Austin Ekeler WAS -0.6 91 WR43 Brian Thomas Jr. JAC -0.6 92 WR44 Christian Watson GB -0.8 93 QB7 Joe Burrow CIN -0.9 94 QB8 Kyler Murray ARI -0.9 95 WR45 Courtland Sutton DEN -1.0 96 RB34 Jerome Ford CLE -1.0 97 RB35 Jaleel McLaughlin DEN -1.0 98 WR46 Rashid Shaheed NO -1.0 99 WR47 Darnell Mooney ATL -1.1 100 QB9 Jayden Daniels WAS -1.3 101 QB10 Dak Prescott DAL -1.3 102 WR48 Ladd McConkey LAC -1.4 103 WR49 Brandin Cooks DAL -1.5 104 TE10 David Njoku CLE -1.8 105 TE11 Pat Freiermuth PIT -1.9 106 WR50 Tyler Lockett SEA -1.9 107 WR51 Demario Douglas NE -1.9 108 WR52 Khalil Shakir BUF -2.0 109 WR53 Jerry Jeudy CLE -2.1 110 QB11 Jordan Love GB -2.1 111 WR54 Jakobi Meyers LV -2.1 112 WR55 Curtis Samuel BUF -2.2 113 QB12 Caleb Williams CHI -2.2 114 WR56 Jameson Williams DET -2.2 115 WR57 Jordan Addison MIN -2.3 116 WR58 Josh Palmer LAC -2.4 117 WR59 Demarcus Robinson LAR -2.5 118 WR60 Jahan Dotson WAS -2.6 119 TE12 Brock Bowers LV -2.6 120 TE13 Tyler Conklin NYJ -2.7 121 QB13 Brock Purdy SF -2.8 122 TE14 Dalton Schultz HOU -2.8 123 WR61 Adam Thielen CAR -2.8 124 RB36 Devin Singletary NYG -2.9 125 RB37 Blake Corum LAR -2.9 126 WR62 Rashod Bateman BAL -3.0 127 QB14 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -3.0 128 QB15 Trevor Lawrence JAC -3.1 129 WR63 Romeo Doubs GB -3.1 130 QB16 Jared Goff DET -3.2 131 RB38 Chuba Hubbard CAR -3.2 132 WR64 Andrei Iosivas CIN -3.4 133 RB39 Nick Chubb CLE -3.5 134 QB17 Aaron Rodgers NYJ -3.6 135 QB18 Geno Smith SEA -3.6 136 QB19 Matthew Stafford LAR -3.6 137 RB40 Gus Edwards LAC -3.7 138 QB20 Justin Herbert LAC -3.7 139 RB41 Zack Moss CIN -3.8 140 WR65 Xavier Worthy KC -3.8 141 WR66 Dontayvion Wicks GB -4.0 142 TE15 Dallas Goedert PHI -4.1 143 RB42 Ezekiel Elliott DAL -4.1 144 QB21 Kirk Cousins ATL -4.3 145 RB43 Ray Davis BUF -4.4 146 QB22 Daniel Jones NYG -4.4 147 WR67 Xavier Legette CAR -4.4 148 QB23 Deshaun Watson CLE -4.4 149 RB44 Bucky Irving TB -4.5 150 WR68 Josh Reynolds DEN -4.6 151 QB24 Will Levis TEN -4.6 152 RB45 Zach Charbonnet SEA -4.6 153 WR69 Jalen McMillan TB -4.6 154 TE16 Noah Fant SEA -4.7 155 TE17 Juwan Johnson NO -4.8 156 TE18 T.J. Hockenson MIN -4.8 157 QB25 Baker Mayfield TB -5.0 158 WR70 Mike Williams NYJ -5.1 159 WR71 Michael Wilson ARI -5.2 160 TE19 Jonnu Smith MIA -5.2 161 WR72 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -5.2 162 WR73 Jalin Hyatt NYG -5.3 163 WR74 Gabe Davis JAC -5.4 164 WR75 Quentin Johnston LAC -5.5 165 WR76 Greg Dortch ARI -5.5 166 RB46 Ty Chandler MIN -5.5 167 WR77 Ja'Lynn Polk NE -5.5 168 RB47 Kimani Vidal LAC -5.7 169 WR78 Adonai Mitchell IND -5.7 170 TE20 Taysom Hill NO -5.7 171 WR79 Tyler Boyd TEN -5.8 172 WR80 Cedric Tillman CLE -5.8 173 RB48 Antonio Gibson NE -5.9 174 RB49 Khalil Herbert CHI -5.9 175 TE21 Mike Gesicki CIN -5.9 176 TE22 Colby Parkinson LAR -6.1 177 TE23 Isaiah Likely BAL -6.1 178 RB50 Tyler Allgeier ATL -6.2 179 RB51 Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG -6.3 180 RB52 Rico Dowdle DAL -6.3 181 TE24 Cole Kmet CHI -6.4 182 RB53 MarShawn Lloyd GB -6.4 183 WR81 Jalen Tolbert DAL -6.4 184 WR82 Marvin Mims DEN -6.5 185 RB54 Braelon Allen NYJ -6.5 186 TE25 Hunter Henry NE -6.7 187 WR83 Darius Slayton NYG -6.8 188 RB55 Dylan Laube LV -6.9 189 RB56 Trey Benson ARI -6.9 190 WR84 Luke McCaffrey WAS -7.0 191 WR85 Jermaine Burton CIN -7.1 192 WR86 Javon Baker NE -7.1 193 WR87 Keon Coleman BUF -7.2 194 RB57 Tank Bigsby JAC -7.2 195 RB58 Kendre Miller NO -7.2 196 RB59 Jordan Mason SF -7.3 197 WR88 D.J. Chark LAC -7.3 198 RB60 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC -7.5 199 RB61 J.K. Dobbins LAC -7.7 200 WR90 Roman Wilson PIT -7.7 201 RB62 Roschon Johnson CHI -7.8 202 WR91 Treylon Burks TEN -7.8 203 WR92 Ricky Pearsall SF -7.9 204 WR93 Tre Tucker LV -8.0 205 TE26 Ben Sinnott WAS -8.0 206 TE27 Luke Musgrave GB -8.1 207 WR94 Calvin Austin PIT -8.2 208 WR95 Malachi Corley NYJ -8.2 209 RB63 Dameon Pierce HOU -8.2 210 RB64 Jaylen Wright MIA -8.6 211 TE28 Greg Dulcich DEN -9.0 212 RB65 Keaton Mitchell BAL -9.1 213 RB66 Michael Carter ARI -9.2 214 RB67 AJ Dillon GB -9.5 215 RB68 Miles Sanders CAR -9.5 216 QB26 Russell Wilson PIT -9.6 217 RB69 Trey Sermon IND -9.7 218 RB70 Audric Estime DEN -9.8 219 RB71 Elijah Mitchell SF -10.3 220 QB27 Justin Fields PIT -10.7 221 RB72 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -10.7 222 RB73 Cordarrelle Patterson PIT -11.0 223 RB74 Will Shipley PHI -11.6 224 RB75 D'Onta Foreman CLE -12.3 225 RB76 Sione Vaki DET -13.3

PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC

My Draft Plan

Last week on The All-Out Blitz podcast, I laid out my draft plan for early (1-4), middle (5-8) and late (9-12) draft slots. My co-host, JJ Wenner, and I spent about 15 minutes talking about each area of the draft. Please check it out.

Top 100 "My Guys"

At this point, it should be fairly clear what players I intend to draft a lot of over the next two weeks. I will say a few words about several of them now (listed in order of how they appear on my Big Board):

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ - The majority of fantasy managers can probably agree that the best quarterback play Wilson has received during his time in New York was the four games he played with Joe Flacco (Weeks 1-3 and Week 18 in 2022). In those games, he earned 50 (!!!) targets and averaged 6.8 catches for 75.8 yards. Of course, my case for Wilson does not hinge on a four-game sample back in 2022. It is based - among other things - on the likelihood that Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy and provide Wilson with enough accurate passes to beat his career catch rate of 56.5 percent. Wilson averaged 89 catches and 1,073 yards over his first two seasons with Flacco, Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, Mike White, Tim Boyle and Chris Streveler as his quarterbacks. There are not five receivers in the league right now capable of pulling that feat off. Fantasy managers are well aware of how good Rodgers can be for an alpha receiver, as he leaned heavily on Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams over the course of the last 10 seasons. New York does not figure to be a high-volume passing offense, but that has rarely ever mattered to Rodgers, who has long been a master of efficiency. The Jets do not have much in the way of target competition for Wilson, but they have enough complementary pieces (Breece Hall and Mike Williams, most notably) to keep defenses from selling out to stop him. As for Wilson's low touchdown totals, the Jets have thrown for 26 touchdowns over the last two seasons combined. Wilson has caught 27 percent of them. Even if Rodgers does nothing more than repeat his production from what was a down year by his standards in 2022 (3,695-26-12), Wilson should score at least seven times. We have already seen Wilson's floor. His ceiling is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 120 catches, 1,500 yards and 10 scores.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC - I spoke at length about Pacheco two weeks ago. Here were some of my thoughts back then:

"The Chiefs have cleared a path for Pacheco to be the man for the first time since Kareem Hunt was just getting started. … Jerick McKinnon may not have been a critical piece in the Kansas City offense in 2023, but he was on the field for about a third of the team's offensive snaps. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has not made a discernible push to lock down the backup job and he would seem to be about the only other player on the roster who could occupy the "McKinnon role." If we assume that Pacheco maintains a similar rushing workload as last season (14.6 carries per game) and adds maybe a third of McKinnon's work in the passing game, the possibility exists for a 300-touch season. At the very least, Pacheco's job should be much easier in 2024 with Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy discouraging defenses from crowding the line of scrimmage."

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI - There may not be another top-20 receiver that flies under the radar quite as much as Smith. When everything else was falling apart in Philadelphia over the second half of last season, Smith thrived. (His 16.3 fantasy points per game from Weeks 8-17 was good for 11th at his position.) Since A.J. Brown arrived in town before the start of the 2022 season, Smith has posted WR9 and WR16 finishes. We have likely seen his floor (last year) and it is incredibly high. Even better for this season's prospects is that new OC Kellen Moore will almost certainly use more motion than former OC Brian Johnson. Smith should also see more time in the slot (career-high 30.8 percent last season), which has been a great thing for any receiver playing for Moore over the last five seasons (Randall Cobb, CeeDee Lamb and Keenan Allen). The slot will likely be more of a shared responsibility between Smith and Brown because both players can win inside or outside, but it makes more sense to let a big receiver like Brown continue to dominate on the perimeter and give the smaller and quicker Smith more room to operate underneath. Either way, Smith is about as safe as a high-upside WR2 selection as there is in fantasy this season. Even with slightly more work in the slot, a 100-catch campaign is within his range of outcomes, especially if defenses opt to let him beat them as opposed to Saquon Barkley or Brown.

RB Josh Jacobs, GB - I spoke at length about Jacobs two weeks ago. Here were some of my thoughts back then:

"The masses appear to be surprised he had a down season in 2023 when it should have been somewhat obvious. (Late report to the team coming off a high-usage season.) He leaves for a better situation - or at least a better offense - and Green Bay showed him how much it valued him by cutting ties with a player it loved in Aaron Jones. The Packers added MarShawn Lloyd - a player who never topped 116 carries or 18 catches in college - in the third round of the draft. Fantasy managers have responded by pushing Jacobs back about two rounds and seem legitimately afraid Lloyd will be much more than a breather back in 2024. Jacobs probably will not get 300 touches, but it would be shocking if he is not the clear lead back."

Let's think about this for a second: did Green Bay cut Jones so it could pay another committee back MORE money? Unlikely. Furthermore, Lloyd's workload in college suggests he is a poor bet to challenge for a huge role in this offense - at least in the short term. He missed a lot of time early in camp as well, so it would be asking a lot for him to contribute early anyway. At least for 2024, something will have likely gone terribly wrong if Lloyd is pushing for 150 touches. Jacobs has twice topped 50 catches and never had fewer than 217 carries in a season. By comparison, Jones exceeded 217 rush attempts in a season once in seven seasons as a Packer. Jacobs is going to be OK.

RB Kenneth Walker, SEA - Check out this nugget from Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald in late July:

"Every time we go over the roster, (running backs coach) Kennedy (Polamalu), he gives me a little hint like, 'Let's feed this guy, he can be special."

Or this one from SI.com's Albert Breer in early August:

"To the new staff, he looks like the kind of back you can play on all three downs, and build a running game around. And Zach Charbonnet gives the team some depth behind him."

It is admittedly bad process to make too much of early camp chatter, but it is actually only icing on the cake in this situation. Walker has already proven to be a good pass-catcher (78 percent catch rate). He is very explosive (career breakaway run rate - the percentage of runs going for at least 15 yards - of 37.6, including 45.8 as a rookie). He has drawn praise from the new coaching staff for his ability as a pass-blocker. Let's face it: either former OC Shane Waldron did not want to open up this offense or former HC Pete Carroll did not allow it to happen. Either way, that does not figure to be a problem under new OC Ryan Grubb, who also had some nice things to say about Walker in early August.

“I think he gets better every single day. I think the sky is the limit for him. I think he is a really, really talented, powerful back (who) is a true three-tool guy… He’s electric out of the backfield as a pass-catcher.”

Also working in Walker's favor: the offensive line should be much healthier this year (and likely, a lot better with C Connor Williams and rookie OG Christian Haynes expected to start). Grubb is much more likely to go up-tempo and rely on the passing game - especially deep - than Waldron ever did. More deep passing and more tempo should lead to more room to run and more plays for the offense in general. A 40-plus catch season may not sound like a big deal, but it would represent a huge uptick in volume for Walker. While we should not expect a huge increase in carries (especially with Charbonnet around), Walker is the kind of back capable of averaging five yards per carry against the lighter boxes he should see in 2024.

WR Diontae Johnson, CAR - Sometimes in this industry, the head coach is nice enough to give us answers to the test beforehand:

"As we build our offense, we will really try to feature someone - and for us right now, it's 'Where's Diontae Johnson at?'" HC Dave Canales told reporters shortly after Carolina traded for Johnson.

The Panthers' biggest problem last year - during a season full of them - was not having a receiver who could get open quickly for then-rookie QB Bryce Young. They had Adam Thielen and his 8.6 average depth of target. Jonathan Mingo and DJ Chark did not create separation very often. When they did, Young often was not getting much help from his offensive line. Carolina dumped a lot of money to shore up the offensive line in the offseason and added Johnson, who has consistently created as much separation as any receiver over his five-year career. The proof? He attracted 144-plus targets in three straight seasons - that does not happen by accident. Touchdowns may be a bit hard to come by in this offense, so fantasy managers should not expect much more than five or six from him. That alone may keep him from being a low-end fantasy WR2. With that said, he has 100-catch upside. Considering how often he is falling outside the top 36 receivers, fantasy managers should be thrilled to land him as a WR3. Consider Johnson the discount Garrett Wilson.

RB James Conner, ARI - One way or another, this is probably the last season fantasy managers will have a choice to be "in" on Conner. By now, we know the downside: he is a 29-year-old who will almost certainly miss multiple games. (He has played 13 or fewer games in all but one year since he became a full-time player in 2018.) Now the positive: on a point-per-game basis, he has been no worse than the RB13 in the three years he has been with the Cardinals. He has consistently performed better over the second half of the season during his time in Arizona. He plays with a quarterback (Kyler Murray) who scares defenses enough with his mobility to keep the backside pursuit from getting overly aggressive. Last but not least, the Cardinals have more offensive weapons at their disposal than at any other time since he arrived. While that will occasionally mean he will lose a touchdown to Trey McBride or Marvin Harrison Jr., it should also mean Conner will have more scoring chances. Given his low-end RB1 upside and relatively cheap draft cost, Conner should be a priority target for any manager who goes receiver-heavy in the first three or four rounds of his/her draft.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL - The talent has never been in question. Unfortunately, it took Atlanta until his fourth year as a pro to get Pitts a quarterback capable of maximizing his talents. Pitts' best quarterback over his first three NFL seasons was an aging Matt Ryan in 2021 when he became only the second tight end in league history to exceed 1,000 yards as a rookie. (We remember what happened to Ryan the following year in Indianapolis.) Kirk Cousins may not be a future Hall of Famer, but there is little question he is better now than Ryan was at the end of his career or any of the quarterbacks Atlanta started over the last two seasons. Kyle Rudolph, Tyler Conklin and T.J. Hockenson were all tight ends in Minnesota who benefited greatly from Cousins being their quarterback. Hockenson is the only one of the group who is remotely comparable to Pitts and all he did in 18 games with Cousins was amass 113 catches on 154 targets for 997 yards and six touchdowns. Pitts is more than a field-stretcher than Hockenson, so there is a distinct chance he can come reasonably close to matching Hockenson's yardage and TD numbers even with 15-20 fewer targets. In a season in which the tight end position seems to be experiencing something of a renaissance, Pitts could lead the charge and challenge for overall TE1 honors.

QB Anthony Richardson, IND - Richardson is probably the freakiest athlete ever to play quarterback in the NFL. His rushing ceiling is breaking Lamar Jackson's NFL record for rushing yards by a quarterback (1,206). Colts HC Shane Steichen may not be considered a quarterback whisper per se, but he is one of the best coaches Richardson could ask for to guide his development. Steichen likes to play with pace, so Richardson should play more snaps than most quarterbacks. The Colts should have three quality receivers at his disposal at the very least and Jonathan Taylor to keep defenses from focusing too much on the running threat Richardson offers. While I realize Taylor might handle the bulk of the goal line scores, the fact of the matter is Richardson is bigger physically and closer to the line of scrimmage. The "Brotherly Shove" became a thing in 2021 when Steichen called the offense in Philly for Jalen Hurts. The Colts have a strong offensive line in their own right, so the "Tush Push" could become a thing in Indy. Either way, no one should be surprised if Richardson and Taylor combine for 25-plus rushing touchdowns.

WR Josh Downs, IND - My only apprehension here is the high-ankle sprain suffered in early August. He was given a 4-6 week timeline shortly thereafter, which puts his Week 1 availability in some doubt. Many athletes have stated that it took six months for them to recover fully from a high-ankle sprain. The grade of the sprain matters, but we can probably assume based on the timeline that Downs suffered either a "bad" Grade 1 or "good" Grade 2 sprain. It is more than reasonable to expect Downs to start the season slow as a result. So why the love for an injured player? The good news is he is usually drafted no earlier than the 13th round, making him a WR5 option on most fantasy teams. In short, he does not need to be drafted anywhere close to where I have him ranked. The beauty of Downs is that he can play the ball in the air very well for a smaller receiver and (assuming he is confident in his ankle at some point before the start of October) can create quick separation better than any of his teammates. He is also the most likely to create separation for the many times Anthony Richardson will likely improvise. This means he should be something of a PPR cheat code in an offense that needs to give Richardson as many "easy" throws as it can. The fact Downs was able to earn 98 targets as a rookie while playing injured for half of the year in an offense with an established alpha such as Michael Pittman Jr. speaks volumes. It would be stunning if he were not one of the five best picks fantasy managers make after Round 10 this year.