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Inside the Matchup
Week 12
11/20/19; Updated: 11/22/19

By: Andy Swanson | Jason Katz | Nick Caron | HC Green



Thursday:

IND @ HOU

Sunday Early:

TB @ ATL | DEN @ BUF | NYG @ CHI | PIT @ CIN

MIA @ CLE | CAR @ NO | OAK @ NYJ | DET @ WAS

Sunday Late:

SEA @ PHI | JAX @ TEN | DAL @ NE | GB @ SF

Monday:

BAL @ LAR


Notes:
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)

Colts @ Texans - (Green)
Line: HOU -4.0
Total: 45.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Jacoby Brissett (knee) returned after a one-game absence but threw just 24 passes against the Jaguars, completing 15 for 148 yards. That marked the fourth time, not including his injury-shortened Week 9, which he's thrown for less than 200 yards in a game. Normally a QB2, Brissett has QB1 upside this week. He threw for 326 yards and four TDs in his last matchup with the Texans, and their secondary was in better shape then.

There's no overstating how much the Colts miss T.Y. Hilton (calf). Without him, the team lacks a true No. 1 (perhaps even a No. 2) receiver. Hilton is questionable for Thursday's tilt, but if he's up he should be immediately returned to your lineup. After a couple of big games, one against Houston, Zach Pascal has struggled the last two weeks, catching just four passes (on 13 targets) for 43 yards. He could be a flex option. Rookie Parris Campbell (hand) remains out due to a hand injury.

Despite the injuries at receiver, Eric Ebron (ankle) and Jack Doyle have done little. Ebron had just four receptions for 27 yards last Sunday, and Doyle was shut out. Ebron, who has an ankle issue of his own, could still hold some value on Thursday, especially given the state of the Texans pass defense.

For the year, Houston is 29th against the pass, allowing 272.4 yards per game. Injuries have taken a toll here, including Mike Adams (concussion), Justin Reid (concussion), Lonnie Johnson (ankle) and Bradley Roby (hamstring). The first two are highly unlikely to play on the short week while the latter two will be game-time decisions. It'll be tough for the Texans to hold up in the backend.

HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22

Running Game Thoughts: Marlon Mack (hand) appeared well on his way to a career day when he suffered a broken hand. He underwent surgery Monday and is out indefinitely. Journeyman Jonathan Williams stepped in and gained 147 yards in relief, but it's unclear what role he'll have with usual backup Jordan Wilkins (ankle) likely to return. Of the two, I prefer Wilkins' upside for the rest of 2019, but if you're looking for a one-week fill-in I'd lean toward Williams. Nyheim Hines is a pure change-of-pace back, and I don't expect Mack's injury to have much bearing on his outlook.

Houston has allowed 102 rushing yards per game, good for 13th in the NFL, though they allowed more than double that amount last week as the Ravens gained 263 yards on 36 carries (7.3 YPC). Brissett is no Lamar Jackson, but he's a solid athlete and might try to stress the Texans defense with his athleticism.

Value Meter:
QB1: Jacoby Brissett (low-end)
RB3/Flex: Jonathan Williams
Flex: Jordan Wilkins (low-end; if active)
WR2: T.Y. Hilton (if active)
Flex: Zach Pascal
TE1: Eric Ebron (low end)
Bench: Marlon Mack (hand), Jack Doyle

Passing Game Thoughts: Things couldn't have gone much worse for Deshaun Watson (ankle) or the Texans as a whole in Week 11 as he passed for just 169 yards and was sacked six times, ultimately finishing the blowout on the sidelines. For all of his talent, Watson has been prone to some real stinkers, tallying fewer than 175 yards passing in a game three times in 2019. Against the Colts in Week 7, Watson accounted for 308 yards passing, 1 TD and 2 INTs in a loss.

When he wasn't getting blatantly interfered with, DeAndre Hopkins hauled in seven balls for 80 yards. Secondary targets Kenny Stills (4-27-0) and Keke Coutee (3-25-0) made little impact, and the team is hoping that Will Fuller (hamstring) is ready to return; he hasn't played since injuring his hammy Oct. 20 against the Colts. While Stills stepped up in relief, he and Coutee have done little since. After teasing fantasy relevance, Darren Fells and Jordan Akins have faded back into obscurity.

Indianapolis is 11th in pass defense (228.8 passing yards allowed per game). They allowed 296 yards to Nick Foles last week, but that was due to soft coverage and a lopsided score. They may be without rookie Rock Ya-Sin (ankle), who recorded his first INT last week before injuring his ankle. While Hopkins is a must start I'd steer clear of anyone else unless Fuller is active.

IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18

Running Game Thoughts: Carlos Hyde (nine carries, 65 yards and a score) and Duke Johnson (6-40-0) were effective in limited opportunities as the score dictated that the Texans try to pass to catch up. Hyde has been a great pick up, bringing stability to the ground game, but neither he nor Johnson did much the last time they faced the Colts' ninth-ranked run defense (96.8 yards allowed per game). I'd still deploy Hyde as an RB2 with Johnson more of a flex candidate.

Value Meter:
QB1: Deshaun Watson
RB2: Carlos Hyde
Flex: Duke Johnson
WR1: DeAndre Hopkins
WR3: Will Fuller (if active)
Bench: Kenny Stills

Prediction: Colts 27, Texans 20 ^ Top

Buccaneers @ Falcons - (Green)
Line: ATL -4.5
Total: 52.0

Passing Game Thoughts: I've run out of clever ways to reference Jameis Winston's blatant disregard for core concepts of successful football, most notably his outright disdain for protecting the ball. The former top overall pick was back at it in Week 11, tossing four interceptions to give him 18 on the season, which is easily the most in the NFL. As usual, the yards were there (318), as were a couple of TDs. While that certainly isn't winning football, there's no arguing Winston is a fantasy QB1.

Nine different players caught passes last week, and yet O.J. Howard wasn't one of them after a catchable ball deflected off of him for a pick; Cameron Brate, meanwhile, caught 10 for 73 yards on 14 targets. There's no shortage of fingers to point for Tampa's 3-7 record, but the collective inability of Winston and Bruce Arians to get Howard involved is mind boggling. To have two tight ends of that caliber and manage for neither to be a fantasy asset is truly an accomplishment.

Although they were third and fourth, respectively, in receiving yards last week, Mike Evans (4-69-0) and Chris Godwin (3-47-1) remain must-start WR1s. Evans lit up Atlanta in the 2018 finale for 106 yards and two scores, while Godwin scored three times in two meeting with the Falcons. Atlanta has been much better against the pass recently than their ranking (26th in the NFL) suggests, but they haven't faced a tandem like this.

ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17

Running Game Thoughts: If you can explain a game plan that involves calling 55 passes and six runs I'm all ears. Incredibly, that was the run-pass split in Week 11 as Ronald Jones carried four times for 13 yards and Peyton Barber didn't even get a carry (he did have two receptions, one for a TD). A few weeks ago I viewed Arians' announcement that Jones would be the lead back as providing clarity. Instead we've traded the mystery of "who'll get more touches?" for "will they call any runs?"

Atlanta currently sits 19th in rushing defense, yielding 107.6 yards per game. In two games since the bye, however, the Falcons have stiffened, giving up just 129 yards combined. Jones has only topped 40 yards rushing once in six games but is a better option than Barber as a shaky RB3.

Value Meter:
QB1: Jameis Winston
RB3: Ronald Jones (low-end)
WR1: Mike Evans
WR1: Chris Godwin
Bench: O.J. Howard, Peyton Barber

Passing Game Thoughts: After using a run-heavy approach to down the Saints in Week 10, the Falcons looked more like themselves last Sunday with Matt Ryan completing 21 of 31 passes for 311 yards and a touchdown; it was his seventh 300-yard game of the season. Expect more of the same this week against an atrocious secondary. In 2018, Ryan passed for 733 yards and five TDs in two wins over the Bucs.

With Austin Hooper (knee) out of action, the Falcons passing game had a streamlined feel to it as Julio Jones (six receptions for 91 yards) and Calvin Ridley (8-143-1) were the targets on 16 of Ryan's 31 attempts. Russell Gage, who has taken over the No. 3 spot in the absence of Mohamed Sanu, caught a pair for 32 yards. Luke Stocker assumed most of Hooper's snaps but was a nonfactor in the passing attack. With Hooper out again, Jones and Ridley are both must starts.

Tampa Bay rates second-to-last in pass defense (290.9 yards allowed per game), and the release of Vernon Hargreaves didn't seem to improve matters. Drew Brees did whatever he wanted, completing 80 percent of his passes for 228 yards and three TDs, and the Bucs haven't had any answers all season long. Why would this Sunday be different?

TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2

Running Game Thoughts: With Devonta Freeman (foot) out with a foot injury, Brian Hill got the yeoman's share of the carries, turning 15 totes into 30 yards. There's an outside possibility that Freeman returns against the Bucs, though the expectation is he'll miss at least another week. Whoever goes faces a tough front, as the Buccaneers have allowed just 80.9 yards per game, which is second in the NFL. Given the matchups, I'd expect the Falcons to put this one in Ryan's hands.

Value Meter:
QB1: Matt Ryan
RB3: Brian Hill
WR1: Julio Jones
WR2: Calvin Ridley
Bench: Austin Hooper (knee), Devonta Freeman (foot)

Prediction: Falcons 34, Buccaneers 24 ^ Top

Broncos at Bills - (Katz)
Line: BUF -4.0
Total: 38.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Unsurprisingly, Brandon Allen has been an upgrade on Joe Flacco. Allen has been a boon for Courtland Sutton, who is averaging 2.26 more fantasy points per game with Allen. Sutton will be matched up with the dangerous Tre’Davious White, but Sutton has already beaten Casey Hayward, Malcolm Butler, Greedy Williams, and Xavier Rhodes. He’s a matchup proof every week WR2.

Allen has also benefited Noah Fant, who has seen increased usage over the past three weeks. Fant ran a season high 35 routes and saw a season high 11 targets last week. The Bills only allow 5.0 fantasy points per game to opposing TE1s, but they also haven’t faced many teams that throw to their tight ends. Fant is at least a streaming option.

Tim Patrick appears to have supplanted DaeSean Hamilton in two receiver sets. He saw eight targets last week and could be even more involved this week if Allen looks to avoid throwing at White. Patrick is definitely on the deep streaming radar. With all that being said, the Bills are one of just three teams allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game and one of just four teams yet to allow double digit touchdowns on the season. Broncos’ pass catchers are more floor plays than ceiling plays in this one.

BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31

Running Game Thoughts: Prior to last week’s game, there was talk of Phillip Lindsay really dominating the backfield looks. That proved mostly true as Lindsay played a season high 63% of the snaps. The way to beat the Bills is on the ground, where they’ve surrendered 11 touchdowns and 4.4 yards per carry. The Broncos look to be moving away from Royce Freeman. Despite being the far bigger back, Freeman has just two goal line carries this season and after never playing fewer than 50% of the snaps, he played just 30% last week. I don’t know how you can trust Freeman this week, but Lindsay should be locked into lineups.

Value Meter:
RB2: Phillip Lindsay
WR2: Courtland Sutton (mid-range)
TE2: Noah Fant (streaming option)
Bench: Brandon Allen, Tim Patrick, Royce Freeman

Passing Game Thoughts: Josh Allen wasn’t merely an elite fantasy option last week, he legitimately played well. Allen has proven quite adept at exploiting favorable matchups. Although he is at home, Denver is not one of those matchups. The Broncos allow just 210.3 passing yards per game and have only allowed 10 passing touchdowns this season. Allen will always have a decent floor due to his rushing ability, but despite last week’s performance, his passing peripherals are not good. Allen ranks near the bottom in true completion percentage, red zone completion percentage, deep ball completion percentage, pressured completion percentage, and clean pocket completion percentage.

Allen has relied heavily on John Brown, which could be a problem with Brown facing off with Chris Harris. The Broncos allow just 12.7 fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s. Cole Beasley continues to operate as the Bills’ WR2, lining up primarily from the slot. He has mostly been a WR3/4 this season and comes with a relatively high floor this week as well. Dawson Knox found the end zone last week and played 70% of the snaps, but he only saw three targets. The Broncos allow just 7.8 fantasy points per game to opposing TE1s so he is not a legitimate streaming option.

DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16

Running Game Thoughts: It was yet another game around 70% of the offensive snaps for Devin Singletary, who has finally nullified Frank Gore. Even with immense positive game script, Singletary touched the ball 16 games because he got 15 carries. If Singletary is going to be carrying the ball 12-15 times when the Bills are ahead while also operating as their passing down back, he should be an every week RB2. The usage has been there the last two weeks while the production has not. The Broncos only allow 31 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs as well as just 3.9 yards per carry. This is a tough spot for the Bills, but they are home and Singletary’s usage floor keeps him in play. As for Gore, he belongs on the waiver wire.

Value Meter:
QB2: Josh Allen
RB2: Devin Singletary (low end)
WR3: John Brown
Flex: Cole Beasley
Bench: Frank Gore, Dawson Knox

Prediction: Bills 19, Broncos 16 ^ Top

Giants @ Bears - (Swanson)
Line: CHI -6.5
Total: 40.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Daniel Jones’ rookie season has been an up and down rollercoaster that one would expect of a first-year player learning to play at the NFL level.

When playing against stout defenses, Jones has struggled, throwing three interceptions against the Patriots and just 182 yards and a pick against the Vikings. When playing against bad defenses like the Bucs, Lions, and Jets, Jones has played well with eight passing touchdowns, and zero interceptions against those three teams ranked in the bottom ten in pass defense.

Although the Bears are not the same insurmountable force they were last season on defense, they do allow the fifth-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks making Jones a questionable start this week at Soldier Field.

Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Jared Goff, and Derek Carr all failed to score more than one passing touchdown against Chicago this season, and only one QB, Case Keenum, topped 300 yards passing against Chuck Pagano’s defense.

As you would expect based on their success against quarterbacks, the Bears have also limited wide receivers to the second-fewest points per game. Darius Slayton has been an excellent breakout candidate for the Giants this season, but he will have difficulties keeping up with his stellar play this week on the road vs. Chicago.

The one area in which the Bears have been beaten in the passing game is via the tight end. Chicago ranks 11th in points allowed to tight ends. This would have been a decent game for Evan Engram owners. However, it appears he is still limited with a foot injury and won’t play. Rhett Ellison is also out with a concussion leaving the Giants extremely thin at the position.

Sterling Shepard practiced in full on Thursday after missing the last five games with a concussion. It is too early to say if he will be active on Sunday, but his return to the passing corps would be a big win for Daniel Jones but could hurt the number of targets for Slayton.

The blueprint on beating the Bears is simple. Without Akiem Hicks up front the Bears struggle at stopping the run, and teams have found it far easier to move the ball between the tackles and hope that Mitchell Trubisky and the Chicago offense make mistakes. Both things have happened on a regular basis this year, which is a big reason why the Bears are 4-6.

CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11

Running Game Thoughts: Saquon Barkley suffered a high ankle sprain against the Bucs in Week 3 and shocked the world by coming back to play against Arizona just four weeks later. His yard-per-carry average of 2.8 since returning to the field suggests that he is not back to full health, and the injury continues to limit the start running back.

Barkley carried the ball 13 times against the Jets before the bye for a whopping one rushing yard. He did add 30 receiving yards on the day, but he has not scored a touchdown since Week 8.

This matchup is pretty attractive for Barkley owners based on the fact that the Bears have been far more susceptible to the run than the pass, with seven different players topping ten fantasy points against Chicago in 2019. Heck, even Todd Gurley posted the biggest game of his season against the Bears.

Should Barkley aggravate his injury, look for Wayne Gallman to once again have fantasy relevancy. Gallman does not provide much from a pure skillset standpoint, but the lead back for any team this late in the season is worthy of a speculative add.

Value Meter:
QB2: Daniel Jones (Low-End)
RB1: Saquon Barkley (Low-End)
WR2: Golden Tate (Low-End)
WR3: Darius Slayton (High-End)

Passing Game Thoughts: Head coach Matt Nagy replaced Mitchell Trubisky with Chase Daniel in the closing minutes of the Bears 17-7 loss against the Rams. Nagy told reporters that Trubisky’s hip was hurting, and the move was due to the ailment and not because the third-year quarterbacks completed just 55% of his passes and could not move the ball.

Regardless of what you think about how that situation was handled or whether or not Trubisky is really injured, he is listed as a full participant in practice on Thursday and appears ready to play against the Giants.

Make no mistake. Trubisky has been terrible for both real life football and fantasy. He has failed to score more than 14 points in six of his nine games, and he failed to top 200 passing yards in four of them. He has just nine passing touchdowns on the season, and he is no longer running with the ball, which was a huge aspect of what made him valuable for fantasy owners.

Trubisky has all but killed Allen Robinson’s value over the past month, while opposing defenses have stifled the Bears ground game by not honoring the pass.

On a positive note, it does not get much better for Trubisky, Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and the other Chicago passing options than a home game against the Giants.

The Giants rank 9th in points allowed to quarterbacks, and only the Tampa Bay Bucs have given up more points to opposing wide receivers. You have been burned for a month now with Robinson and likely hung onto him. This is the game where you should get 80 yards and a score or two.

Gabriel and Anthony Miller could both be a sneaky flex play. The former has 11 catches for 96 yards and a score on 20 targets in his last two games, while the latter hit double figures in targets for the first time this season last week against the Rams.

NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27

Running Game Thoughts: David Montgomery fantasy owners are likely stressing out on what to do with the rookie running back who, at times, has looked good. Montgomery scored a combined 30 fantasy points against the Chargers and Eagles in Weeks 8 and 9, only to follow up with 60 yards and zero touchdowns on 17 carries at home against the Lions, the worst team in the league against running backs.

Montgomery then burned owners with 31 yards on 14 carries against the Rams, as Tarik Cohen carried the ball a season-high nine times for 39 yards while adding 35 yards and a score in the air.

Considering the fact that the Giants rank 12th in points allowed to running backs one would assume that Montgomery would get the lion’s share of carries and excel this week. But that is what we all thought two weeks ago when the Lions came to town.

Is Nagy frustrated with Montgomery’s play and pivoting to the more shifty Cohen? Was last week an anomaly or the trend for the rest of the season? Your guess is as good as ours, and hopefully, you have better options than either of the backs in the Chicago Backfield.

Value Meter:
QB2: Mitchell Trubisky (Low-End)
RB2: David Montgomery (Low-End)
RB3: Tarik Cohen (Low-End)
WR2: Allen Robinson (Low-End)
WR4: Taylor Gabriel/Anthony Miller (Low-End)

Prediction: Chicago 20, NY Giants 14 ^ Top

Steelers @ Bengals - (Swanson)
Line: PIT -6.5
Total: 39.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Lost in all the drama in the final minutes of the Steelers/Browns melee is the fact that the Steelers suffered injuries to two starting wide receivers. JuJu Smith-Schuster suffered a concussion and knee injury, while Diontae Johnson suffered a scary concussion that included blood dripping out of his ear.

Smith-Schuster has not practiced this week and is likely out for Sunday’s game against the Bengals, while Johnson practiced in full on Thursday but has yet to clear the concussion protocol.

The injuries to the wide receiving corps of the Steelers should open up an opportunity for James Washington to earn more targets and catches against a Bengals defense that gives up the fourth-most points to quarterbacks and the 20th-most to wide receivers.

This is arguably the best matchup on paper for Mason Rudolph, although it is hard to play him in anything other than super-flex leagues based on the fact that he doesn’t complete enough passes to be an elite fantasy option, even against the Bengals. The second-year player from Oklahoma State has yet to top 300 yards or two passing touchdowns in a game, and he enters Sunday on the heels of throwing four interceptions against the Browns.

Vance McDonald could be in line for a solid game this week and continues to earn a decent amount of targets from Rudolph. McDonald has seven targets in each of his last three games, yet has not converted those targets into a top-12 fantasy week.

Perhaps this week against the Bengals, a defense that ranks ninth in points allowed to tight ends, McDonald will hit pay dirt and provide a solid fantasy performance for his owners. The Raiders, Bills, 49ers, and Ravens (twice) all posted at least 50 yards from the tight end position against the Bengals.

One reason why Cincinnati has been dreadful on defense this year is their lack of pass rush. The Bengals are tied with the Dolphins for the least amount of team sacks on the year, with opposing quarterbacks benefiting from far too much time in the pocket to pick apart the Bengal secondary.

Another thing to look for is the Steelers taking advantage of the Bengals’ inability to stop the run and reception to running backs. Pittsburgh ranks third in the league in receptions to running backs and the Bengals rank fourth in points allowed to running backs. This mismatch is going to be a key for success for Rudolph and the Steelers offense on Sunday.

CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9

Running Game Thoughts: James Conner owners have to be frustrated beyond belief that their stud running back is injured and will likely miss this choice matchup against the Bengals. The Bengals are terrible against the run, giving up 23.5 fantasy points per game. Conner scored 18.5 points when they played against each other in Pittsburgh Week 4, and Jaylen Samuels, the likely starter if Conner is ruled out, scored 14 points of his own with 83 total yards and a rushing touchdown.

Samuels is a must start and a solid No.2 running back this week against the Bengals. Trey Edmunds would also be an interesting play in deeper leagues, but owners need to keep an eye on rookie Benny Snell who practiced in full on Thursday and appears to be on track to return from a knee injury.

If Snell is not active and Edmunds is the clear No.2, he should garner some low-end flex consideration in deeper leagues, especially if you are dealing with bye week blues.

Value Meter:
QB2: Mason Rudolph (High-End)
RB2: Jaylen Samuels (High-End)
WR3: James Washington (High-End)
WR4: Diontae Johnson (Low-End)
TE: Vance McDonald (Low-End)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Ryan Finley experiment has been a bust. You can’t fault the winless Bengals from wanting to see if they have anything in their fourth-round rookie before entering the 2020 NFL draft with presumably the No.1 overall pick and a chance for Joe Barrow, but Finley has done nothing so far to make a claim as the QB of the future in Cincinnati.

The former North Carolina State star has completed 47% of his passes for 282 yards and one touchdown in two games. You can throw out the Baltimore game because it was his first start, and the Ravens are a tough defense. Finley’s second start against Oakland, a defense that has been torched all year by opposing quarterbacks, is one that makes you question the rookies place as an NFL quarterback.

It is difficult to have any fantasy value for skill position players when the quarterback throws for 115 yards and an interception. With nine games of fewer than seven fantasy points and just one touchdown, Tyler Boyd, and favorite breakout candidate of the fantasy community has been a complete bust and should be avoided if possible.

Auden Tate suffered a nasty concussion against the Raiders and is likely out, and John Ross can return, but he too is a risky play because Finley has been so terrible.

Pittsburgh ranks 19th against the pass and 16th against wide receivers on the season. No opposing wide receiver had topped 100 yards against the Steelers, and only Phillip Dorsett in Week 1, has managed to post more than one receiving touchdown in a game.

The one area in which Pittsburgh has struggled in pass defense is against tight ends. The Steelers allow the sixth-most points to tight ends this year, with six receiving touchdowns allowed. Will Dissly and Hunter Henry each scored two touchdowns against Pittsburgh, giving hope to Tyler Eifert owners that their tight end could be in line for a score.

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6

Running Game Thoughts: Joe Mixon has been the lone bright spot for the Bengals as of late with three games of double-digit fantasy production. Mixon posted back to back 100-total yard performances against the Raiders and Ravens, including a season-high 114 rushing yards on 30 carries against Baltimore Week 10.

It will be difficult for Mixon to continue his streak of solid performances this week against the Steelers, a team that has yet to give up 100 rushing yards in a game to a single player. Pittsburgh has not given up a receiving touchdown to a running back, and Mark Ingram back in Week 5 was the last rushing touchdown allowed by the Steelers.

Mixon owners likely do not have a better option this week, so they will need to start him regardless of the matchup. Should the Bengals use a similar approach as they did against Baltimore and give Mixon 30 carries, he could come through with a top-20 performance again. However, if he is limited to fewer than 20 carries because of game flow, he could be a bust with 70 or fewer rushing yards.

Value Meter:
QB2: Ryan Finley (Low-End)
RB2: Joe Mixon (High-End)
WR3: Tyler Boyd (Low-End)
TE1: Tyler Eifert (Low-End)

Prediction: Pittsburgh 21, Cincinnati 10 ^ Top

Dolphins @ Browns - (Swanson)
Line: CLE -10.5
Total: 45.0

Passing Game Thoughts: The Miami Dolphins continue on their path for an early first-round pick in the 2020 NFL draft with a 2-8 record. The defense is one of the worst in the league, while the offense, led by Ryan Fitzpatrick, ranks 30th in average yards per game and second to last in points, just ahead of the lowly Redskins.

The Dolphins are in full tank and rebuild mode - that is for certain. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t fantasy value to be found. Fitzpatrick is not the most skilled quarterback in the league, but he is one of the most willing passers to push the envelope and chuck the ball downfield to his big wide receiver, DeVante Parker.

Parker, a former first-round bust who is trying to resurrect his career, has four games of over ten fantasy points and four receiving touchdowns this season. With an average of nine targets in his last five games, Parker continues to be a focal point of the passing offense in Miami and should be considered an excellent high-end No.3 wide receiver.

The Browns pass defense started out as one of the worst in 2019 with cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams out due to injury. With the secondary back to full strength, Cleveland has given up the eighth-fewest points to wide receivers over the past five weeks. No wide receiver has topped 100 yards during that span, and only three touchdowns have been scored by WRs since Week 8.

The indefinite suspension of Myles Garrett is a boost for the Dolphins, as tackles Jesse Davis and Julie’n Davenport have struggled in pass protection. Miami ranks first in the league in sacks allowed at 4.2 per game.

CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12

Running Game Thoughts: The Dolphins rank dead last in the league at combined fantasy points scored at the running back position. The Miami offensive line ranks dead last in run blocking efficiency according to FootballOutsiders.com, with 26% of all runs stuffed behind the line of scrimmage.

The Dolphins line does not open up many holes for the running backs, and the running backs used by Miami are not very skilled at creating yards with agility and breaking tackles.

Kalen Ballage is averaging 1.9 yards per carry this season on 64 carries for 122 yards. Without three rushing touchdowns to help boost his stats, Ballage would be one of the worst fantasy running backs in recent years.
Mark Walton flashed some skills in his short time with the team but was recently cut for off-field domestic violence issues. Rookie Patrick Laird could be an interesting deep sleeper in PPR formats after his six-catch performance last week against the Bills.

The Browns rank 15th in point allowed to running backs, with six running backs reaching double figures in fantasy points this season. Ballage’s inability to make yards on his own mixed with the poor offensive line play makes him a risky start. Laird could be a low-end flex in PPR formats, but if given a choice, I would avoid the ground game in Miami if possible.

Value Meter:
QB2: Ryan Fitzpatrick (High-End)
RB3: Kalen Ballage (Low-End)
RB4: Patrick Laird (Low-End)
WR3: DeVante Parker (High-End)
WR4: Jakeem Grant (Low-End)
TE2: Mike Gesicki (High-End)

Passing Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners who held on to Baker Mayfield over the Browns’ terrible start to the season were rewarded with three strong performances against Denver, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh. Mayfield’s 64 fantasy points over the previous three games are higher than Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, and Deshaun Watson.

The good times should continue this week for Mayfield and the skill position players for the Browns with the Dolphins coming to town. Miami gives up the 7th-most points to opposing quarterbacks and just gave up an impressive 36.4 fantasy points to Josh Allen last week.

When given time to throw, Mayfield has been much better this season, which bodes well for Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry owners, as the Dolphins are tied with the Bengals for the fewest sacks forced on the season.

Baker should have ample time to find open targets and pepper OBJ and Landry with a ton of wide-open receptions.

Chances are if you drafted Beckham in the latter stages of the first round of fantasy drafts this season, you are not in playoff contention. Beckham has just two 100-yard games on the season and has not scored a touchdown since Week 2.

On the bright side, the volume has been there with 22 targets in his last two games. If, for some reason, you are an OBJ owner and you are still in playoff contention, this is the week that you are going to finally reap the dividends of your early-round pick.

Jarvis Landry has quietly earned nearly the identical target share as Beckham, yet he has produced nearly a full fantasy point more per game and is riding a streak of a touchdown in three straight games. While there is always the revenge narrative of a player like Landry playing against his old team, the better narrative is the connection he appears to have with Mayfield and the success he has had as of late getting into the end zone.

MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14

Running Game Thoughts: Unlike their competition in this game, the Browns have been a successful running team with the 10th most fantasy points scored at the position. Nick Chubb continues to be a heavily used first and second-down back with 67 combined carries in his last three games, while Kareem Hunt has slid into the pass-catching role with 17 receptions for 90 yards in his two games from the suspension.

Chubb owners who worried about Hunt taking carries should not be concerned based on what we have seen in the last two games. Chubb continues to get the monster share of carries and was just eight yards away from a fourth-consecutive 100-yard game last week against a stout Pittsburgh Steeler run defense.

From a matchup standpoint, it doesn’t get a whole lot better than playing the Dolphins at home. Miami ranks 6th in points allowed to running backs, with ten total touchdowns allowed to the position in 10 games, including four receiving touchdowns out of the backfield.

Both Chubb and Hunt should be considered strong starts in all formats, with Hunt getting a boost in PPR formats. A possible positive game script when the Browns building an early lead could equate to more carries for Chubb in the second half.

The Browns do not have an injury on the offensive side of the ball that would affect the performance of skill position players against Miami.

The Dolphins, on the other hand, have a few substantial injuries in their secondary that will positively affect both the run and pass game for the Browns. Staring safeties Rashad Jones and Bobby McCain were placed on injured reserve on Wednesday with shoulder injuries. Jones played last week against Buffalo after missing five weeks due to injury, but apparently was still injured and required placement on IR.

Look for the Browns to take advantage of these injuries with plays designed to take advantage of safeties over the middle of the field.

Value Meter:
QB1: Baker Mayfield (Low-End)
RB1: Nick Chubb (High-End)
WR2: Odell Beckham Jr. (High-End)
WR2: Jarvis Landry (Low-End)
TE2: Demetrius Harris (Low-End)

Prediction: Cleveland 34, Miami 14 ^ Top

Panthers @ Saints - (Green)
Line: NO -9.5
Total: 47.0

Passing Game Thoughts: A few weeks ago, Panthers fans were thinking about where they could spend all those free-agent dollars they'd save by cutting Cam Newton and letting Kyle Allen run the show. Yep, it's Lee Corso time... not so fast my friend! The Panthers have dropped three of four, bottoming out (they hope) with a 26-point home loss to Atlanta in which Allen threw four interceptions -- it was the second time in four games he's thrown multiple picks and zero TDs.

There was a silver lining for fantasy owners as Allen passed for 325 yards, 121 of which went to Christian McCaffrey on 11 receptions. D.J. Moore (8-95) was next, followed by Greg Olsen (5-57) and Curtis Samuel (4-25). That's the continuation of a recent trend as Moore and Olsen have moved well ahead of Samuel in terms of looks. Moore is now locked in as a legit WR2 for fantasy owners while Olsen is back as a top-10 tight end. Samuel, however, has faded a little and feels slightly overvalued as a WR3.

With 256.5 yards allowed per game, New Orleans ranks ninth in pass defense, though a decent chunk of that has definitely come during garbage time. Even without Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) they did a nice job of holding Tampa Bay's dynamic duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in check last week. They'll look to pressure Allen into making mistakes and continuing his downward spiral.

NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24

Running Game Thoughts: McCaffrey ran 14 times for 70 yards in last Sunday's loss, bringing his combined yardage to 191. He's been the steadiest fantasy performer out there with only the Buccaneers finding a way to really slow him down in 2019. A year ago, CMC accounted for 120 yards against the Saints in Week 15; he played sparingly in the finale against New Orleans' JV roster. With the Saints allowing 107.5 rushing yards per game (17th) you can bet the Panthers will feature McCaffrey heavily.

Value Meter:
RB1: Christian McCaffrey
WR2: D.J. Moore
WR3/Flex: Curtis Samuel
TE1: Greg Olsen
Bench: Kyle Allen

Passing Game Thoughts: Coming off of a shocking loss to Atlanta, the Saints took it to the Bucs last week. Drew Brees completed 28 of 35 passes for 228 yards and three scores as they jumped out to a 20-point lead before stumbling a little in the second half. The veteran has had his share of battles with Carolina over the years, including a hard-hitting Week 15 affair last year where Brees threw for just 201 yards with no TDs. Of course, that was on the road, and Brees has long been better in the dome.

It was SSDD for the Saints passing game last week. Michael Thomas led the way with eight receptions, 114 yards and a TD on 11 targets. Beyond Thomas, only Alvin Kamara (10) saw meaningful looks, which is a pretty accurate reflection of the team's weekly approach. On that front, Tre'Quan Smith and Ted Ginn Jr. continue to offer minimal contributions and aren't worth owning in most leagues. Jared Cook scored for the third time in four games: that's enough to earn him a spot as a TE1 despite modest yardage.

The Panthers are middle of the road against the pass, ranking 14th with 233.6 yards allowed. While Carolina doesn't have an elite secondary, they're tied with San Francisco for the NFL lead in sacks with 39. They'll need to get after Brees if they have any hope of springing the upset. At 5-5, the Panthers can't afford many more losses so I'd expect an inspired effort against the Saints.

CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30

Running Game Thoughts: We're 10 games into the season, and the Saints still haven't been able to mold Kamara and Latavius Murray into the kind of cohesive backfield that they had when Mark Ingram was there. That's despite Murray looking like a stud when Kamara was out of action. At least the touches are getting closer: in Week 11, Kamara had 23 combined touches to Murray's 12. Carolina has really struggled against the run this year, allowing 128.4 yards per game (27th), so I'd expect Sean Payton to give them a healthy dose of Kamara and Murray on Sunday.

Value Meter:
QB1: Drew Brees
RB1: Alvin Kamara
RB3/Flex: Latavius Murray
WR1: Michael Thomas
TE1: Jared Cook (if healthy)

Prediction: Saints 31, Panthers 20 ^ Top

Raiders at Jets - (Katz)
Line: OAK -3.0
Total: 45.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Derek Carr is playing much better this season, which has been great for the Raiders. Unfortunately, it hasn’t really translated into fantasy success. Carr has finished higher than QB11 just once, but he has shown the ability to exploit favorable matchups. He was QB6 against the Texans and QB11 last week against the Bengals. Now, he gets a Jets defense allowing 20.4 fantasy points per game to opposing QB1s.

The Jets do not have anyone that can cover Darren Waller or Tyrell Williams. Waller has been a must start all season and will remain so even though the Jets have been relatively stingy against the tight end. Williams has largely been touchdown and splash play dependent, but on a week where many fantasy relevant players are on bye, he’s pretty much a must start. I think Williams finds the end zone this week. Hunter Renfrow has really come on over the past month as well. He’s reached double digit fantasy points in three of his last four games while averaging six targets a game. He’s a safe, floor option against the Jets.

NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29

Running Game Thoughts: Josh Jacobs really disappointed in a smash spot last week and now faces a Jets defense that somehow is allowing the fewest rushing yards per game at just 79.1. The silver lining is their pass defense is so bad, the have allowed 10 rushing scores so Jacobs has a decent chance to punch one in from close. He has also seen eight targets over the past two weeks, increasing his PPR floor. While Jacobs has been impressive on the field, his usage is still concerning. He hasn’t played more than 61% of the snaps since Week 1. DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard are getting more work than Jacobs owners would like, but not enough for either to be fantasy viable.

Value Meter:
QB1: Derek Carr (low end)
RB1: Josh Jacobs (low end)
WR3: Tyrell Williams
TE1: Darren Waller (mid-range)
Flex: Hunter Renfrow
Bench: Jalen Richard

Passing Game Thoughts: After appearing just once over the first nine weeks, good Sam Darnold has now shown his face in consecutive games. Darnold has posted back-to-back overall QB7 finishes, taking advantage of two easy matchups. That’s enough to inspire confidence that Darnold can exploit another easy matchup against the Raiders, who have allowed 24 passing touchdowns this season, third most in the league. This game has sneaky shootout potential, making multiple Jets pass catchers relevant.

Robby Anderson is not amongst that group. He’s finished outside the top 40 in all but one game this season. Jamison Crowder, on the other hand, has now scored in three straight and been on the WR1/2 border. The Raiders only allow 7.8 fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers, but Crowder is averaging nearly eight targets per game over the past three weeks and has just been too good to fade.

You should also fire up Ryan Griffin. He face planted against the Giants, but has been the overall TE2, TE14, and TE2 in three of his last four games. The Raiders allow 11.7 fantasy points per game to opposing TE1s. Griffin is currently third on the target totem pole in a game Darnold could throw nearly 40 times. Demaryius Thomas is also worth mentioning purely because of the plethora of relevant pass catchers on bye this week. Thomas has posted WR4 or better numbers in five of his last seven games, which is at least something. He should be good for at least a handful of points for those in a bind.

OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3

Running Game Thoughts: Another week. Another favorable matchup. Another low end RB1 performance for Le’Veon Bell. He’s not going to win you weeks like he did in Pittsburgh, but he’s extremely reliable. Bell’s finishes over the past three weeks: RB9, RB10, RB9. The Raiders are a middle of the pack run defense, but their awful pass defense will allow the Jets multiple scoring opportunities, giving Bell touchdown upside. The Raiders allow 4.9 receptions per game to opposing running backs, which bodes well for Bell’s reception floor, too.

Value Meter:
QB1: Sam Darnold (low end)
RB1: LeíVeon Bell (low end)
WR2: Jamison Crowder (low end)
TE1: Ryan Griffin (low end)
Bench: Robby Anderson, Demaryius Thomas

Prediction: Jets 27, Raiders 24 ^ Top

Lions at Redskins - (Katz)
Line: DET -3.5
Total: 41.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Credit to Matt Patricia for fooling everyone into thinking he was going to run a really incompetent offense. While the Lions aren’t one of the pass heaviest teams, they are throwing a healthy 60% of the time. Matthew Stafford is going to miss another game and I am still skeptical as to whether he plays again this season. Jeff Driskel is a capable replacement and for fantasy, he brings with him the cheat code. Rushing quarterbacks are always QB1s and Driskel gets a Redskins defense that was just eviscerated by Sam Darnold for four touchdowns. Driskel has been a QB1 in both of his starts this season and is an excellent streaming option.

Driskel did only attempt 26 passes last week, which could be problematic for his pass catchers. Kenny Golladay’s target share is fine, but the overall volume is not. Golladay has caught just four passes from Driskel while Marvin Jones has caught nine. That could be a product of opponents taking away Golladay, which is something the Redskins are incapable of doing. Both Jones and Golladay are strong plays this week. As for T.J. Hockenson, continue to ignore him as he is not a big part of the offense.

WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13

Running Game Thoughts: For the second time this season, the Lions have signed someone off the street and pushed that guy ahead of Ty Johnson. First, it was Tra Carson out-carrying Johnson. Last week, it was Bo Scarbrough. With Week 12 being one of, if not the worst in terms of bye weeks this season, any running back guaranteed 8-10 carries and goal line work is worth starting. The Lions project to see positive game script and the Redskins allow the fifth most rushing yards per game at 133.9. Scarbrough can certainly fall into the end zone again and J.D. McKissic is in play as a floor option. He’s seen 11 targets with Driskel at quarterback and should be a lock for at least a handful of fantasy points.

Value Meter:
QB1: Jeff Driskel (low end)
WR2: Kenny Golladay (mid-range)
WR3: Marvin Jones
Flex: Bo Scarbrough, J.D. McKissic
Bench: Ty Johnson, T.J. Hockenson

Passing Game Thoughts: Dwayne Haskins has some sneaky streamer appeal in a game where he should need to throw. Haskins was a QB1 last week, racking up some garbage time stats against a bad defense. The Lions are also a bad defense. They allow 288.6 passing yards per game and have allowed 22 passing touchdowns against just three interceptions.

Terry McLaurin has yet to score a touchdown or catch more than four passes with Haskins at QB. A matchup with Darius Slay is not as imposing as in previous years, but Haskins has turned McLaurin from an every week WR2 into a WR4. It is difficult to view McLaurin as anything more even in a strong matchup. Trey Quinn, Kelvin Harmon, and Jeremy Sprinkle are way off the fantasy radar.

DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7

Running Game Thoughts: Derrius Guice returned and played just 29% of the snaps. We have no way of knowing if that was a plan to ease him back in or if the Redskins really are going to push Wendell Smallwood, who saw a team high 46% of the snaps. Guice did out-snap Adrian Peterson, but Peterson out-carried Guice 9-7 with neither being particularly effective. Guice did show some flash on his 45-yard touchdown reception and certainly looks healthy and by far the best back on the team.

The Lions are bad against the run, allowing 124.2 rushing yards per game and a total of 10 touchdowns. The Reskins should be able to score this week, making Guice a viable flex option. It is worth noting that Chris Thompson returned to practice this week and is on track to play. We have no way knowing how substantial his role will be. It is entirely possible that this is a three-man committee. It’s also possible that Thompson walks right back into his old role, capping Guice’s ceiling and rendering AP useless. Either way, you can’t trust anyone in this backfield other than Guice.

Value Meter:
QB2: Dwayne Haskins (high end)
WR3: Terry McLaurin
Flex: Derrius Guice
Bench: Adrian Peterson, Trey Quinn, Chris Thompson

Prediction: Lions 27, Redskins 17 ^ Top

Seahawks at Eagles - (Katz)
Line: PHI -1.5
Total: 49.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Fresh off a bye, Russell Wilson returns in a dream spot against the Eagles. On the road, the Seahawks should choose to throw against a team with a good run defense and bad pass defense. The Eagles have allowed 17 passing touchdowns this season and the only reason their yards allowed is only 237.5 is because they’ve faced Mitchell Trubisky and Luke Falk. The Eagles struggle against opposing WR1s and WR2s, allowing 16.4 and 15.0 fantasy points per game to each, respectively.

Tyler Lockett has been limited in practice, but Pete Carroll is optimistic that Lockett will be ready to go on Sunday. Carroll is known for being overly positive about injuries, but this time his comments comport with the prevailing thoughts of doctors following Lockett’s injury. I believe Lockett will play and if he plays, you start him.

DK Metcalf is also an excellent start. He will see a lot of Ronald Darby, who is quite capable of getting burned deep and allows 2.02 fantasy points per target, 69th in the league. There should be plenty of Wilson targets for both Lockett and Metcalf. If Lockett doesn’t play, then Josh Gordon is a consideration. He only played 38% of the snaps two weeks ago and while the number should go up with another two weeks to learn the offense, he’s still the fourth option in run first offense.

The final relevant member of this passing attack is Jacob Hollister. He’s played over 80% of the snaps his past two games and has finished as the TE3 and TE4. Ed Dickson returning this week doesn’t concern me as Hollister has done nothing to justify being taken off the field.

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25

Running Game Thoughts: Chris Carson will likely need a touchdown in this one as the Eagles allow just 14.8 fantasy points per game to opposing RB1s. They allow the fourth fewest rushing yards per game, but have allowed nine touchdowns due to their struggles against the pass resulting in teams marching into the red zone. There are no concerns about Rashaad Penny as Carson played 100% of the snaps two weeks ago and touched the ball 28 times. He is locked into elite level volume.

Value Meter:
QB1: Russell Wilson (high end)
RB1: Chris Carson (low end)
WR2: Tyler Lockett (high end)
WR3: D.K. Metcalf
TE1: Jacob Hollister (mid-range)
Bench: Rashaad Penny, Josh Gordon

Passing Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz hasn’t finished higher than the overall QB17 in his past four games, but he’s also faced four good pass defenses. Wentz can attack weaker pass defenses, which is what he has this week in Seattle. The Seahawks allow 271.8 passing yards per game, fifth most in the league, and this game has shootout potential. The Eagles’ running game is putrid, which has led to Wentz attempting 40 and 39 passes in his last two games. The volume is great, but who exactly is he throwing to? Zach Ertz will see all the work he can handle with DeSean Jackson on IR and Alshon Jeffery still nursing an ankle injury. Ertz’s volume is tied directly to the amount of weapons the Eagles have. With Jeffery out, Ertz saw 11 targets in each of his past two games.

The Eagles should use a lot of 12 personnel with Dallas Goedert as well. Goedert has played over 80% of the snaps his past two games. He is the second option in this passing game and a very worthy start at tight end. Jeffery practiced on Thursday and looks like he will play, but if he doesn’t, Nelson Agholor is the de facto WR1, that is, if he plays. Agholor is also dealing with a knee injury and missed practice on Thursday. Both players have a very easy matchup against a Seahawks defense allowing 17.2 fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s and 13.5 points per game to WR2s.

SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8

Running Game Thoughts: Prior to the Eagles’ bye, Jordan Howard suffered a stinger. It is now three weeks later and he still hasn’t been cleared for contact. It is entirely possible Howard gets cleared Saturday or Sunday and plays. It is also possible Howard misses the remainder of the season. Without Howard, the Eagles’ running game has been atrocious. However, Miles Sanders did play 88% of the snaps last week, by far the highest in the Doug Pederson era. He only touched the ball 13 times, but it was against the Patriots. Sanders should have a much easier time against the Seahawks who allow 5.5 receptions per game to running backs. Sanders does his best work in the passing game and is far more valuable as a receiver than a runner.

Boston Scott only played 18% of the snaps, but he did see seven carries. If Sanders continues to struggle, Scott could have sneaky value down the stretch should Howard remain out. For this week, Scott does not belong in the conversation. The Seahawks have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns, tied for third most in the league. If this game is high scoring, Sanders has a much better chance at finding the end zone than last week.

Value Meter:
QB2: Carson Wentz (high end)
RB2: Miles Sanders (low end)
WR3: Alshon Jeffery
TE1: Zach Ertz (high end)
TE1: Dallas Goedert (low end)
Flex: Nelson Agholor (if Jeffery sits)
Bench: Jordan Howard (stinger)

Prediction: Seahawks 30, Eagles 28 ^ Top

Jaguars @ Titans - (Green)
Line: TEN -3.0
Total: 41.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Jacksonville made the switch from Gardner Minshew to Nick Foles after the bye, but they still endured a second straight massacre, losing 33-13 to the Colts. Forced to play from behind for much of Sunday, Foles connected on 33 of his 47 attempts for 296 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Those numbers sound decent, but much of it came against soft coverage as the Jags racked up meaningless yards. The jury remains very much out on the Foles/Minshew debate.

With 15 targets, D.J. Chark (8-104-2 in Week 11) remained the focus of the passing game, reaffirming his status as a weekly WR2 option. It gets hazier after that, though, as Chris Conley (6-58-0 on eight targets) and Dede Westbrook (4-32-0 on six) vie for the No. 2 spot on the outside. I feel like Westbrook holds a little more value right now, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them alternate statistical superiority going forward.

To be clear, these aren't the '18 Rams where you can legitimately start three WRs in the same offense week after week. Chark should get his, but after that you'll be rolling the dice between Westbrook, Conley and, to a lesser extent, Keelan Cole (4-41-0). Perhaps we'll get a little more clarity this Sunday as obviously Jacksonville's game plan isn't to have almost 50 drop backs to nine runs.

Defensively, Tennessee ranks 22nd against the pass, surrendering 256.0 yards per game via the air, though they gave up 446 yards and 3 TDs last time out. Granted, that was against Patrick Mahomes, but it was also the first game sans Malcolm Butler (wrist), so it'll be interesting to see how well the Titans hold up.

TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10

Running Game Thoughts: With consecutive blowout losses, Leonard Fournette has had just 19 carries for 63 yards over his last two games combined. He's generated a little value in the passing game -- Fournette quietly has 27 receptions in his last five games -- but you can bet Doug Marrone wants to re-establish the run. Fournette accounted for 92 yards in the Week 3 meeting with Tennessee, which is allowing 102.5 rushing yards per game on the year, and remains an RB1.

Value Meter:
QB2: Nick Foles (low-end)
RB1: Leonard Fournette
WR1/WR2: D.J. Chark
Flex: Dede Westbrook
Flex: Chris Conley

Passing Game Thoughts: Tennessee has won three of four with Ryan Tannehill under center, though the former Dolphin has been feast or famine with the yards, topping 300 twice and failing to crack 200 in the other two. He's excelled in the red zone, though, and has posted multiple touchdown strikes three times. It was Marcus Mariota at the helm back in Week 3, a game in which he threw for 304 yards, but given J-Ville's struggles with the run you'd have to think Tannehill will pass judiciously on Sunday.

Incredibly, we may've reached a point where no one associated with the Titans passing game can be started in fantasy. Corey Davis (hip) and A.J. Brown, ostensibly the team's top two receivers, have been wildly inconsistent since Tannehill took over -- Davis was held under 10 yards once and Brown has accounted for fewer than 20 twice. Delanie Walker (ankle) has been injured, Adam Humphries has done little and so on. There's no one here you can rely on to produce on a weekly basis.

Jacksonville currently ranks eighth in passing yards allowed (219.3), though part of that "success" stems from their vulnerability against the run. Clearly the team would like to stop Derrick Henry and force Tannehill to beat them, but I'm not sure that they can. Guys like Brown and Davis offer low-floor, middle-ceiling production. Avoid playing any of them if possible.

JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

Running Game Thoughts: Henry ran 23 times for 188 yards and two scores in the upset win over Kansas City. He could be eyeing similar numbers this week after journeyman Jonathan Williams came on for an injured Marlon Mack and compiled almost 150 yards of offense last week. The Jags sit 29th against the run this year (134.6 yards allowed per game) and dead last in yards per carry (5.3). Expect to see a lot of Henry in Week 12.

Value Meter:
RB1: Derrick Henry
Bench: Ryan Tannehill, Corey Davis, A.J. Brown, Delanie Walker

Prediction: Titans 24, Jaguars 13 ^ Top

Cowboys at Patriots - (Katz)
Line: NE -6.5
Total: 45.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Dak Prescott has been outstanding this season. By all accounts, he should be third in the NFL MVP race behind Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson. From a fantasy perspective, he’s been just as good. Outside of Week 4 against New Orleans, Prescott has finished as QB1 every game this season, including four top five finishes. This week, he gets his toughest test against the Patriots defense that has allowed just four passing touchdowns all season against 19 interceptions. The Patriots only allow 152.6 passing yards per game. Prescott leads the league in yards per game at 322. Something has to give. This game will come down to whether Jason Garrett and Kellen Moore play not to lose like they did against the Vikings or play to win like they did against the Lions.

Prescott leads the league in deep ball completion percentage so the Cowboys should push the ball down the field to Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Cooper will see a lot of Stephon Gilmore who is allowing just 0.97 fantasy points per target, second in the league. Gallup will see Jason McCourty, who is allowing 0.93 fantasy points per target, best in the league. Randall Cobb has been hot of late as well, with back to back WR1 finishes. His 83% slot rate keeps him away from the Patriots’ set of elite cornerbacks, but if Prescott can’t sustain drives, there won’t be enough volume for Cobb. Jason Witten is playing over 80% of the offensive snaps, but is not a fantasy option against a defense allowing just 5.2 fantasy points per game to TE1s.

NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26

Running Game Thoughts: Ezekiel Elliott is overall RB6 on the year, but he hasn’t come anywhere close to being the guy fantasy owners expected. Zeke only has four RB1 finishes and none higher than overall RB4. He’s only seeing 3.7 targets per game after he saw 6.3 per game in 2018. The Patriots are weaker against the run than average, allowing 4.6 yards per carry; they just don’t see much rushing volume because their opponents are always trailing. Elliott does lead the league in carries and opportunity share. Tony Pollard has impressed every time he’s seen the field, but the Cowboys are committed to getting their money’s worth from Elliott. It would be smart for the Cowboys to look to scheme Zeke into space in an effort to avoid throwing at the Patriots’ elite cornerbacks. We’ll see if they actually do it. You’re never benching Zeke anyway so just sit back and hope the Cowboys can move the ball.

Value Meter:
QB1: Dak Prescott (low end)
RB1: Ezekiel Elliott (mid-range)
WR2: Amari Cooper (mid-range)
WR3: Michael Gallup
Flex: Randall Cobb
Bench: Tony Pollard, Jason Witten

Passing Game Thoughts: In a smash spot against the Eagles last week, Tom Brady didn’t throw a touchdown pass. He is just barely a QB1 despite leading the league in red zone attempts. The Cowboys have great numbers against opposing QBs, but those are largely buoyed by their soft early season schedule. Over the past two weeks, the Cowboys have allowed QB1 performances to Kirk Cousins and Jeff Driskel. The Patriots are aware of their offensive issues and if anyone can correct them in a week’s time, it’s Bill Belichick. Unfortunately, Brady is working with a banged up supporting cast. Mohamed Sanu is out with an ankle injury and Phillip Dorsett still needs to clear the concussion protocol. As it stands, Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry are the team’s healthiest receivers.

Look for James White to be heavily involved as Belichick tries to emulate the Vikings’ use of Dalvin Cook in the screen game, which was very effective. Edelman has seen double digit targets in five consecutive games. He should make it six this week. The Cowboys only allow 7.5 fantasy points per game to the slot, but Edelman has been spending about half his snaps outside. He is a strong play regardless. If Dorsett sits, Harry is in play as a bye week filler. He only played 40% of the snaps last week, but he did see four targets and is in line for more if he’s the team’s #2. If Dorsett does play, his near 100% snap share makes him a startable option, but Byron Jones leads the league with just 4.7 fantasy points allowed per game.

DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5

Running Game Thoughts: James White is more receiver than running back. The Cowboys allow the third most receptions to running backs. White is an excellent option this week as discussed above. Sony Michel, on the other hand, belongs as far away from your starting lineup as you can get him. Sure, he can fall into the end zone, but that is literally the only thing he can do to be useful. Michel had an overall RB22 finish against the Giants without a touchdown. Other than that, his highest weekly finish in games where he didn’t score was RB37. Rex Burkhead has been playing about 30% of the snaps, but without any reliable volume or goal line work, he is not a fantasy option.

Value Meter:
QB1: Tom Brady (low end)
RB2: James White (high end)
WR1: Julian Edelman (low end)
WR3: Phillip Dorsett (if he plays)
Flex: NíKeal Harry (if Dorsett sits)

Prediction: Patriots 38, Cowboys 27 ^ Top

Packers @ 49ers - (Caron)
Line: SF -3.0
Total: 47.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers has always been known as one of the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks in the league, but that simply hasn’t been the case here in 2019. Rodgers has somehow failed to reach even 15 fantasy points in six of his 10 starts thus far, while he’s finished with 25 or more fantasy points of three of the other four. The big games he’s had have come against some of the league’s less-intimidating pass defenses (Oakland, Kansas City, Philadelphia) and here in Week 12 he faces his toughest matchup to date as he and the Packers head on the road to face the 49ers.

San Francisco has given up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season and they’ve been absolutely dominant most weeks, having held opposing quarterbacks to fewer than eight fantasy points in four of their contests. Certainly Aaron Rodgers is a prolific enough passer that we have to consider him in typical fantasy leagues, but the point here is that his upside just isn’t great on the road against a really good defense. Rodgers is more of a low-end QB1 than the usual mid-to-high-end QB1 that he is most weeks.

Because of this lack of upside from his quarterback, wide receiver Davante Adams is the only Green Bay pass catcher who we should be looking at for fantasy purposes. Adams has battled injury through most of the 2019 season and is still limited in practice, but he’s expected to make his third straight start after catching seven passes in each of his two games since returning from injury. Adams, who has been one of the league’s most prolific touchdown-scorers in recent seasons, has not yet found the end zone in 2019 and should be in line for some positive touchdown regression if he can get healthy and continue to see the target volume that he’s been getting, but it’s hard to trust him as an elite option at the moment, especially in a matchup like this. Think of him as a lower-end WR1 this week.

SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32

Running Game Thoughts: There really isn’t anywhere that San Francisco struggles on defense as they not only rank as the second-best fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks, but also as the fourth-best fantasy defense against opposing running backs. The 49ers have given up just two 100 rushing yard performances to opposing running backs thus far in 2019 and they’ve only allowed opposing backs to score three total touchdowns on the season. If you’re looking for some optimism, it is worth noting that both of the 100-yard performances and all three touchdowns have been scored over the past three weeks against this defense, but don’t get it confused - this is still an elite run defense that we don’t want our running backs to be facing.

The back who gets the displeasure of playing against this defense here in Week 12 is Aaron Jones, who absolutely crushed the Panthers to the tune of 93 rushing yards and three touchdowns the last time we saw him, before the Packers bye, back in Week 10. While players like Davante Adams have been far below their expected touchdown output, Jones has been massively outperforming his expectations in that area. Jones has already scored 14 touchdowns this season, including 11 as a runner and three as a receiver, despite Jamaal Williams continuing to see significant playing time in the same offense. The duo of Jones and Williams have scored a whopping 20 touchdowns on the season already and will almost certainly finish the season as the highest-scoring duo in the league from a touchdown standpoint. The Packers are simply utilizing their running backs more often near the goal line than their competitors and the results have been gigantic for fantasy purposes. Don’t expect that to change much, even in a tough matchup against San Francisco here in Week 12.

Unfortunately, with the 49ers defense being as good as it is, there likely will not be nearly as many scoring opportunities for the Packers backs as they’ve typically been seeing. This means a lower ceiling for the backs and makes Jones more of a low-end RB1 whereas he’s been a mid-to-high-end RB1 in most games. It also makes Williams very difficult to trust given his unpredictable touch totals. WIlliams has been kept to 10 or fewer total touches in three of his past four games and while he still sees enough usage near the goal line and in the passing game to remain a Flex option, he’s not much more than that in what is a very difficult matchup.

Value Meter:
QB1: Aaron Rodgers (low-end)
RB1: Aaron Jones (low-end)
WR1: Davante Adams (low-end)
Flex: Jamaal Williams
Bench: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, Allen Lazard, Jimmy Graham

Passing Game Thoughts: After providing fantasy owners with a four-touchdown performance in two of his past three games, Jimmy Garoppolo is back on fantasy radars despite his early season struggles. Garoppolo seems to be falling in love with rookie wide receiver Deebo Samuel who has been an absolute monster in each of his past two games, catching eight passes in each game for 112 and 134 yards respectively. He’s only scored one touchdown on the season, but he’s providing Garoppolo with a viable weapon outside of his running backs while tight end George Kittle has been out with injury. Samuel should be owned in practically every league and he can be considered a WR2 especially if Kittle and fellow wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders are out again, but he’s still at worst a Flex play even if those players are on the field. Sanders himself is likely to be limited if he is able to go, but he was a strong performer in his short time in San Francisco so look for him to still turn in a Flex-worthy performance if he’s active on Sunday.

The 49ers offense is certainly better as a whole when Kittle is on the field, which the team supposedly is “hoping” that he will be, but he’s been out in each of the 49ers’ past two games and has been limited in practice this week so make sure that you have other options leading into this Sunday Night Football game. Backup tight end Ross Dwelley actually scored twice in Week 11 with Kittle sidelined and fantasy owners who roster Kittle need to have him, Jimmy Graham, or one of the tight ends who play on Monday Night Football rostered just in case Kittle is unable to go. If he does play, Kittle is a high-end TE1 option unless we know that he’ll be significantly limited, and then it’s just a crap shoot. The lack of talent at tight end throughout the league probably means that he’s in your lineup if he’s able to go but don’t get too high of expectations even though he’s playing against a Green Bay defense that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends so far in 2019.

GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4

Running Game Thoughts: Tevin Coleman against the Cardinals, with Matt Breida sidelined, was supposed to be one of the biggest smash spots for any running back in Week 11, but the former Falcon fell flat on his face, rushing for just 14 yards on 12 carries while failing to get into the end zone. While he did salvage a bit of his fantasy day in PPR leagues by catching three passes for an additional 48 yards, Coleman was a massive disappointment and his lack of production in a great matchup really illustrates why it’s tough to trust any of these San Francisco backs on a week to week basis.

It does appear as though Breida is unlikely to play here in Week 12 given that he hasn’t practiced as of Thursday, so Coleman should be in line for another relatively heavy workload and he could provide a nice bounce-back performance. Fortunately, he faces another great fantasy matchup as he’ll be up against a Packers defense that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs so far this season. They got the Christian McCaffrey treatment this past week and were even beaten up by the Chargers’ backfield the week prior so Coleman is looking to turn in the third straight RB1 performance against the Packers. Of course, even if Breida is out, Coleman will likely have to share at least some of the touches with Raheem Mostert and even potentially some with Jeff Wilson. The 49ers are not a team that’s going to give all of the running back touches to one player, so Coleman’s upside will continue to be capped, but Breida being out would make him a high-end RB2 as opposed to a low-end RB2 if Breida is out there this Sunday.

Value Meter:
QB1: Jimmy Garoppolo (low end)
RB2: Tevin Coleman (high-end)
WR2: Deebo Samuel (if Sanders is out)
TE1: George Kittle
Flex: Deebo Samuel (if Sanders plays), Emmanuel Sanders
Bench: Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Kendrick Bourne, Marquise Goodwin, Dante Pettis, Ross Dwelley

Prediction: 49ers 27, Packers 24 ^ Top

Ravens @ Rams - (Caron)
Line: BAL -3.0
Total: 46.5

Passing Game Thoughts: The breakout fantasy season for Lamar Jackson seems to just get better and better every week as he threw for another four-touchdown performance while still contributing huge yardage on the ground this past week in the Ravens’ win over the Texans. Jackson is not only performing as a runner, which we expected, but he’s also typically producing good enough numbers as a passer that he’d be a viable fantasy option even without his legs. Jackson is one of the very few matchup-proof quarterbacks and he’ll continue to be a QB1 for the foreseeable future.

Of course, the passing game production isn’t exactly translating into much production for his wide receivers. No Ravens wide receiver has caught more than four passes in a game since all the way back in Week 2. In fact, it only happened that one time as rookie Marquise Brown caught eight passes for 86 yards. The lack of volume for the Baltimore receivers just makes them all big play or bust type performers. They really need to score a touchdown or they’re just not going to be particularly viable and none of them have proven to be consistent touchdown scorers. Brown is certainly the most productive of the bunch, but he’ll likely be matched up quite a bit against star cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey hasn’t been great since the trade that brought him to Los Angeles, but he’s still not someone who fantasy owners should be excited about their rookie wide receiver playing against. Brown is a Flex option at best.

If you’re looking for production out of these Baltimore pass catchers, it’s likely to come in the form of the tight end position, more specifically Mark Andrews. We’ve seen other tight ends have productive games here and there which has been a little frustrating, but Andrews has been by far the best of the bunch and he’s really established himself as one of the league’s premier fantasy options at tight end. Andrews has scored six touchdowns on the season, including three over his past two games. He’s facing a Rams defense that has been pretty good against opposing tight ends this season, especially recently, but they haven’t exactly faced the most difficult schedule against the position. Look for Andrews to again be Jackson’s top target which makes him a quality TE1.

LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram’s 10 total touchdowns on 829 total yards is an extremely high rate of scoring that is probably unsustainable to some extent, but it’s also worth considering that this Baltimore offense has one of the most efficient running schemes that we’ve seen. Lamar Jackson being on the field keeps defenses honest as they can’t fully commit on stopping Ingram without the possibility of giving up the big run (or pass) to Jackson. That’s an extremely difficult scheme to contain, especially near the goal line, and it at least partially explains why Ingram’s touchdown scoring has been so impressive and also why he might not be in line for as much regression in that area as one might think simply by looking at the numbers.

Ingram does face a very difficult matchup here in Week 12, however, as he’ll be up against a Rams defense that hasn’t allowed a single running back to rush for more than 70 yards against them since all the way back in Week 5. Ingram’s usage in the passing game has been very limited this season, so he’s not padding his fantasy stats with catches and that does make him a little riskier to play against this defense. Still, the Ravens are a red hot offense right now and Ingram is seeing a dozen or more touches per week, so he’s fine to put in your lineup as an RB2.

Gus Edwards did have a great game this past weekend in the Ravens’ blowout victory over the Texans and certainly that could happen again this week against the struggling Rams, but it’s not something that’s wise to bet on. Even this past week, when he rushed for 112 yards, he did so on just eight attempts. He hasn’t touched the ball 10 times in a single game since all the way back in Week 1 so let’s not get overzealous about a single performance. Edwards remains one of the league’s top handcuff options and should probably be owned in most leagues at this point of the season due to that fact, but keep him out of your starting lineup.

Value Meter:
QB1: Lamar Jackson
RB2: Mark Ingram
TE1: Mark Andrews
Flex: Marquise Brown
Bench: Gus Edwards, Willie Snead, Miles Boykin, Seth Roberts, Hayden Hurst, Nick Boyle

Passing Game Thoughts: After a slow start to the season and now having thrown zero touchdowns and three interceptions over his past two weeks, the panic button has been smashed down by fantasy owners of Rams quarterback Jared Goff. Goff was one of the breakout fantasy stars of the first-half of the 2018 season and rode that performance to a top-12 performance at the position on the year, but he really struggled down the stretch this past season and now it’s been a full calendar year since we’ve really seen any sort of consistent high-end production from Goff. At this point he needs to be on your bench in normal, single-QB fantasy leagues, especially against a Ravens defense that ranks in the top eight in fewest fantasy points given up to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. They just got done holding Deshaun Watson to 169 passing yards and they have only given up one multiple-touchdown passing day to an opposing QB so far this season.

Thankfully, Goff’s struggles don’t necessarily spell disaster for the Rams pass catching weapons. The team consolidates their targets to their three receivers - whichever grouping that might be - and this season they’ve also been sprinkling in passes to tight end Gerald Everett. Beyond those players, though, it’s pretty much a wasteland for anyone else in this offense, which is a good thing for fantasy because we know that the fantasy-viable options will typically have opportunities.

It’s been a very weak start to the second half of the fantasy season for Cooper Kupp, however, as he’s now been held to under 55 receiving yards in four of his past five games. Of course, that does include the one exception, in Week 8 when he destroyed the Bengals for 220 yards and a touchdown, but it’s still been a pretty tough stretch for Kupp’s fantasy owners as of late. He does have by far the best matchup among Rams players this week, however, as the Ravens have actually struggled quite a bit against opposing slot receivers as of late. Both Mohamed Sanu and Julian Edelman, who primarily play out of the slot, caught 10 passes against the Ravens back in Week 9 and players like Jarvis Landry as well as both Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald - all of whom are slot receivers - went over 100 yards against this defense. Baltimore’s secondary is good overall so DFS players might be off Kupp more than usual which should give fantasy owners a nice opportunity to get him at a potentially suppressed ownership rate given his own recent struggles and the perceived difficult matchup.

The other players in this passing game, however, should probably be avoided at the moment. Sure, you can maybe get tight end Gerald Everett in your lineup as a low-end TE1 given the dumpster fire that is the position as a whole, but Baltimore is a top five defense as a whole against opposing tight ends so it’s not a great matchup. Also, while they’ve struggled against slot receivers, the Ravens have been elite against outside pass catching weapons, so it’s going to be difficult to trust any of these other wide receivers.

Brandin Cooks is expected to be back on the field as he finally cleared the concussion protocol, but he hadn’t been particularly great before that injury anyway. Meanwhile, Robert Woods, who missed Week 11 with “personal reasons,” does not carry an injury designation heading into this game but there has been no confirmation that he’ll play on Monday night. Given the lack of certainty and the fact that it might be too late to pivot off of Woods into another quality receiver on what could be short notice, Woods should probably be avoided in most leagues. If you take the chance and he’s on the field, sure, he’s a quality play, but that’s a very big risk to take. Last, Josh Reynolds is an option for the most desperate of fantasy owners, but he’s only someone you could put in your lineup if either Cooks or Woods is sidelined. Otherwise he simply won’t be on the field. It’s too difficult to trust him given the lack of opportunity to get him out of your lineup if Woods and Cooks are on the field.

BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28

Running Game Thoughts: The rumor out of Rams camp was that the team was planning on using Todd Gurley more down the stretch this season than they did in the first half of the season and we may have just seen the first indication of that being true this past week when the former All-Pro back touched the ball 28 times for 133 yards and a touchdown against the Bears. It was by far his best yardage output of the season and only his second 100-yard day of 2019.

Certainly we can’t expect that Gurley is going to see that high of usage on a weekly basis, but him getting 28 touches in a single game seems to indicate that the Rams realize that this season may be slipping away and they need to take the necessary risks to scratch their way back into playoff contention. The passing game is struggling mightily at the moment, so that probably means another heavy workload is coming for Gurley here in Week 12 against the Ravens.

Baltimore has been a great defense as a whole this season, but they have stumbled a bit in recent weeks, having given up over 100 rushing yards in each of their past two games against the Bengals and Texans. They’ve also quietly given up 10 total touchdowns to the position this season, so Gurley actually might have a decent opportunity of getting into the end zone in this matchup.

The Rams offensive struggles hurt Gurley’s upside as a whole, but he’s still a potential low-end RB1 in standard leagues and a high-end RB2 in PPR leagues.

Value Meter:
RB1: Todd Gurley (low-end)
WR1: Cooper Kupp
WR3: Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks
TE1: Gerald Everett (low-end)
Bench: Jared Goff, Malcolm Brown, Darrell Henderson, Josh Reynolds, Mike Thomas, Tyler Higbee

Prediction: Ravens 28, Rams 20 ^ Top