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Top 175 Big Board, Superflex PPR: Version 1.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/17/21 |
PPR | Half-Point PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex


Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men are asked to work in harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men are being asked to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it doesn't mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make 8,000 "decisions". That is not a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst that does not consider it at all. I like to believe that even if readers believe my process is flawed for whatever reason, they can appreciate how much thought has been put into that opinion.

How much thought, you ask?

For example, Allen Robinson lined up on the left side of the formation 409 times, on the right side 298 times and in the slot 245 times last year. Since the majority of defensive coordinators tend to have their cornerbacks stick to one side as opposed to following a particular receiver, Robinson's ability to match up and defeat each of the defensive backs in those spots should be considered. I do that for each player who projects to stand inside the top three of his team's depth chart, and all of that information is factored into my projections. While how often Robinson lines up in a certain spot will inevitably change from last year, it's unlikely the way he is deployed will change all that much in this fourth year under HC Matt Nagy.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is identifying when stocks may be poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 10 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions that have been featured in this space over the last few weeks. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern.

Over the next week, I will release my first Big Boards for Half-Point PPR leagues as well as and the FFPC. In the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason, I will rank at least 200 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

 Superflex Big Board - Top 175
Rk Pos Player Tm Age SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 RB Christian McCaffrey CAR 25 12.22
2 QB Patrick Mahomes KC 25 7.36
3 RB Ezekiel Elliott DAL 26 6.77
4 QB Kyler Murray ARI 24 6.76
5 QB Josh Allen BUF 25 6.64
6 RB Nick Chubb CLE 25 5.97
7 WR Davante Adams GB 28 5.94
8 RB Dalvin Cook MIN 26 5.93
9 RB Derrick Henry TEN 27 5.86
10 RB Austin Ekeler LAC 26 5.82
11 QB Lamar Jackson BAL 24 5.75
12 RB Alvin Kamara NO 26 5.65
13 RB Aaron Jones GB 26 5.30
14 TE Travis Kelce KC 31 5.21
15 QB Dak Prescott DAL 28 5.11
16 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 37 5.03
17 WR Tyreek Hill KC 27 4.97
18 RB Najee Harris PIT 23 4.88
19 RB Saquon Barkley NYG 24 4.66
20 RB Jonathan Taylor IND 22 4.54
21 QB Ryan Tannehill TEN 33 4.54
22 TE Darren Waller LV 28 4.53
23 QB Russell Wilson SEA 32 4.42
24 WR DeAndre Hopkins ARI 29 4.41
25 RB Antonio Gibson WAS 23 3.96
26 RB Joe Mixon CIN 25 3.92
27 QB Tom Brady TB 44 3.72
28 WR Calvin Ridley ATL 26 3.41
29 RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC 22 3.29
30 WR Stefon Diggs BUF 27 3.24
31 TE George Kittle SF 27 3.07
32 QB Justin Herbert LAC 23 2.83
33 QB Matthew Stafford LAR 33 2.58
34 RB Chris Carson SEA 26 2.32
35 WR DK Metcalf SEA 23 2.24
36 RB David Montgomery CHI 24 1.69
37 WR A.J. Brown TEN 24 1.63
38 QB Jalen Hurts PHI 23 1.54
39 WR Allen Robinson CHI 27 1.51
40 RB J.K. Dobbins BAL 22 1.50
41 QB Joe Burrow CIN 24 1.47
42 WR Terry McLaurin WAS 25 1.41
43 QB Trevor Lawrence JAC 21 1.36
44 WR Justin Jefferson MIN 22 1.02
45 QB Trey Lance SF 21 0.99
46 WR Keenan Allen LAC 29 0.92
47 QB Carson Wentz IND 28 0.74
48 WR Robert Woods LAR 29 0.58
49 QB Matt Ryan ATL 36 0.52
50 WR Mike Evans TB 27 0.44
51 WR CeeDee Lamb DAL 22 0.38
52 QB Sam Darnold CAR 24 0.34
53 RB D'Andre Swift DET 22 0.33
54 WR Amari Cooper DAL 27 0.11
55 QB Justin Fields CHI 22 0.06
56 WR Cooper Kupp LAR 28 0.03
57 QB Tua Tagovailoa MIA 23 -0.10
58 RB Travis Etienne JAC 22 -0.32
59 WR Chris Godwin TB 25 -0.33
60 WR Julio Jones TEN 32 -0.37
61 WR Tyler Lockett SEA 28 -0.43
62 QB Kirk Cousins MIN 32 -0.47
63 RB Myles Gaskin MIA 24 -0.55
64 WR Tee Higgins CIN 22 -0.85
65 WR Adam Thielen MIN 30 -0.93
66 WR Ja'Marr Chase CIN 33 -1.19
67 TE Mark Andrews BAL 25 -1.24
68 RB Josh Jacobs LV 23 -1.25
69 WR D.J. Moore CAR 24 -1.31
70 RB Chase Edmonds ARI 25 -1.36
71 RB Darrell Henderson LAR 23 -1.40
72 TE Kyle Pitts ATL 20 -1.42
73 WR Diontae Johnson PIT 25 -1.44
74 RB Miles Sanders PHI 24 -1.46
75 QB Ryan Fitzpatrick WAS 38 -1.53
76 QB Daniel Jones NYG 24 -1.55
77 QB Derek Carr LV 30 -1.56
78 WR Chase Claypool PIT 23 -1.60
79 QB Baker Mayfield CLE 26 -1.64
80 WR Courtland Sutton DEN 25 -1.73
81 TE T.J. Hockenson DET 24 -1.87
82 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 39 -2.16
83 QB Zach Wilson NYJ 22 -2.18
84 RB Kareem Hunt CLE 26 -2.19
85 WR Brandon Aiyuk SF 23 -2.20
86 WR Tyler Boyd CIN 26 -2.49
87 RB Mike Davis ATL 28 -2.50
88 RB Michael Carter NYJ 22 -2.60
89 WR Jerry Jeudy DEN 22 -2.63
90 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 24 -2.63
91 RB James Robinson JAC 23 -2.65
92 RB Javonte Williams DEN 21 -2.72
93 WR Robby Anderson CAR 28 -2.79
94 RB Trey Sermon SF 22 -2.81
95 RB Damien Harris NE 24 -2.83
96 WR D.J. Chark JAC 24 -2.84
97 TE Dallas Goedert PHI 27 -3.08
98 WR Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 28 -3.21
99 TE Noah Fant DEN 23 -3.37
100 WR Michael Gallup DAL 25 -3.37
101 QB Taysom Hill NO 30 -3.47
102 RB Raheem Mostert SF 29 -3.53
103 WR Antonio Brown TB 33 -3.55
104 TE Robert Tonyan GB 27 -3.58
105 TE Jonnu Smith NE 25 -3.59
106 WR Mike Williams LAC 26 -3.71
107 QB Jameis Winston NO 27 -3.86
108 WR Kenny Golladay NYG 27 -3.93
109 WR Deebo Samuel SF 25 -4.00
110 WR Michael Thomas NO 28 -4.04
111 WR Darnell Mooney CHI 23 -4.09
112 WR Marvin Jones JAC 31 -4.14
113 WR Jarvis Landry CLE 28 -4.19
114 WR Curtis Samuel WAS 25 -4.32
115 WR Elijah Moore NYJ 26 -4.33
116 RB Kenyan Drake LV 27 -4.36
117 RB Melvin Gordon DEN 28 -4.44
118 QB Drew Lock DEN 24 -4.47
119 QB Mac Jones NE 22 -4.56
120 TE Mike Gesicki MIA 25 -4.59
121 TE Logan Thomas WAS 30 -4.60
122 WR Laviska Shenault JAC 22 -4.62
123 RB Gus Edwards BAL 26 -4.75
124 WR Will Fuller MIA 27 -4.81
125 RB Zack Moss BUF 23 -4.83
126 TE Irv Smith MIN 23 -4.89
127 RB Ronald Jones TB 24 -4.90
128 RB Jamaal Williams DET 26 -5.09
129 RB Giovani Bernard TB 29 -5.15
130 WR DeVonta Smith PHI 22 -5.17
131 RB James White NE 29 -5.19
132 RB Devin Singletary BUF 23 -5.31
133 WR Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR 21 -5.33
134 TE Evan Engram NYG 26 -5.36
135 TE Tyler Higbee LAR 28 -5.37
136 WR Cole Beasley BUF 32 -5.42
137 TE Adam Trautman NO 24 -5.48
138 RB Nyheim Hines IND 24 -5.58
139 WR Brandin Cooks HOU 27 -5.69
140 QB Jared Goff DET 26 -5.69
141 TE Gerald Everett SEA 27 -5.70
142 RB AJ Dillon GB 23 -5.77
143 RB James Conner ARI 26 -5.83
144 QB Andy Dalton CHI 33 -5.96
145 WR Michael Pittman Jr. IND 23 -5.96
146 RB J.D. McKissic WAS 28 -5.96
147 WR Bryan Edwards LV 22 -6.00
148 WR Russell Gage ATL 25 -6.03
149 WR Rondale Moore ARI 21 -6.04
150 WR Parris Campbell IND 24 -6.07
151 TE Blake Jarwin DAL 27 -6.11
152 WR Jaylen Waddle MIA 22 -6.14
153 WR Rashod Bateman BAL 21 -6.30
154 WR Corey Davis NYJ 28 -6.35
155 WR DeVante Parker MIA 28 -6.36
156 RB Latavius Murray NO 31 -6.42
157 RB David Johnson HOU 29 -6.47
158 TE Anthony Firkser TEN 26 -6.49
159 WR T.Y. Hilton IND 31 -6.51
160 TE Hunter Henry NE 26 -6.59
161 TE Jared Cook LAC 34 -6.60
162 WR Marquez Callaway NO 23 -6.61
163 RB Leonard Fournette TB 26 -6.63
164 RB Tarik Cohen CHI 26 -6.64
165 WR Nelson Agholor NE 28 -6.65
166 RB Tony Pollard DAL 24 -6.78
167 TE Cole Kmet CHI 22 -6.83
168 WR Jakobi Meyers NE 24 -6.84
169 RB Kenneth Gainwell PHI 22 -6.84
170 TE Rob Gronkowski TB 32 -7.00
171 WR Randall Cobb GB 30 -7.03
172 WR A.J. Green ARI 33 -7.29
173 WR Henry Ruggs III LV 22 -7.35
174 WR Marquise Brown BAL 24 -7.36
175 WR Sterling Shepard NYG 28 -7.51


PPR Big Board | Half-Pt PPR Big Board | Non-PPR Big Board


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.