Notes:
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
Bears @ Lions
- (Swanson) Line: CHI -4.5 Total: 38.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Mitchell Trubisky delivered his best game
of the 2019 season with 278 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns
in the Bears’ 19-14 win against the Giants. The much-maligned
third-year pro overcame a slow start to complete 25 of 41 passes
while adding 18 rushing yards and his first rushing touchdown
of the season.
Part of the reason why Trubisky played so well is the fact that
the Giants defense is one of the worst in the league and one of
the most giving to opposing quarterbacks. The season of giving
continues for the Trubisky and the Bears skill position players
this week when they head to Detroit to take on a Lions defense
that ranks ninth in points allowed to quarterbacks, 13th to wide
receivers, and second in points to running backs.
To put it lightly, the Lions are terrible. They cannot stop opponents
in any facet of the game, making them an excellent matchup for
even a below-average fantasy QB like Trubisky. In fact, Trubisky’s
second-best game of the season came against the Lions when the
two teams faced off two weeks ago at Soldier Field.
With so many solid quarterback options, it would make sense to
avoid Trubisky in anything other than the deepest of leagues or
super-flex formats. However, Trubisky’s excellent matchup
means that Allen Robinson owners should be in line for a solid
game, and even the secondary options in the passing game like
Anthony Miller are worthy of a flex play. Taylor Gabriel is listed
with a concussion on the Week 13 injury report and missed practice
on Monday, making him a stretch to play on Thursday.
If you have been holding on to Tarik Cohen hoping for a big game,
this might be your week on Turkey day. The Lions have given up
a league-worst seven receiving touchdowns to opposing running
backs, and only the Chiefs and the Texans have allowed more receiving
yards to running backs.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: As the No.34 ranked running back in fantasy
football with 8.9 points per game, it is safe to say that rookie
David Montgomery has not lived up to the hype he was given in
the fantasy community this summer. Injuries to the offensive line,
terrible play at the quarterback position, and questionable play
calls by Matt Nagy have all contributed to a disappointing rookie
campaign for Montgomery.
It may be tough for Montgomery owners to pull the trigger and
start the rookie this week based on the fact that he has averaged
fewer than three yards per carry in his last three games and has
not scored a touchdown since Week 9.
Even in a solid matchup on paper against the Lions three weeks
ago, Montgomery managed to post just 60 rushing yards on 17 carries.
Once again, on paper, this looks like a great matchup, especially
because the Lions will be rolling out Jeff Driskel again, making
a positive game script a possibility for the Bears ground game.
But Montgomery is just as likely to give you a single-point dud,
with Tarik Cohen being the running back to own and start for the
fourth-straight week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Lions will likely roll out Jeff Driskel
(hamstring) for a fourth start with Matthew Stafford recovering
from a back injury. With the Lions all but out of playoff contention,
it makes little sense to rush back Stafford and make his already
delicate back injury worse.
So that means Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones owners get another
week of Driskel, who all but killed the WR1 value of Golladay
with four catches for 95 yards and zero touchdowns combined in
matchups against the Cowboys and Redskins.
Golladay posted a nice 3/57/1 line against the Bears when Driskel
made the last-minute start for the Lions Week 10, but the majority
of those yards and the score came on a broken play. Golladay owners
are going to start their stud, but expectations should be tempered
based on what we have seen from this passing offense over the
last month.
You can also start Jones with a bit of trepidation, as he is
capable of two touchdowns like he posted against the Cowboys while
also a 5/46/0 line is all within the realm of possibility. If
Stafford were healthy and playing both wideouts would be solid
plays, but with Driskel in the lineup, it is hard to predict great
games for the wideouts.
Another thing to be concerned about is the health of Driskel’s
hamstring. He was a limited participant on Monday due to the injury
and could be limited in the game. Mobility and making plays outside
of the pocket is one of the strength’s in Driskel’s
game, and a bum hamstring is a concern for the skill portion players
in the passing offense.
Staring center Frank Ragnow is listed with a concussion on the
Week 13 injury report and could miss the game. His absence would
be a knock in both the passing game and running game for the Lions,
especially against a stout pass rush like Chicago’s.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: The Lions may have found a viable running
game in Bo Scarbrough, the former Alabama running back who was
promoted from the practice squad two weeks ago. Scarbrough sacred
a rushing touchdown against Dallas Week 11 and followed up with
98 yards on 18 carrels against the Redskins last week.
The one area in which the Bears have been vulnerable this year
on defense has been stopping the run. The loss of Akiem Hicks
left a hole in the middle of the Chicago run defense that the
team has not yet been able to fix, and opposing teams have been
able to run the ball fairly well between the tackles against the
Bears.
Chicago ranks 16th in point allowed to running backs, with seven
running backs finishing with double digits in fantasy points.
Surprisingly, Saquon Barkley struggled with 59 yards on a17 carries
last week, which could be as much about the state of his injured
ankle as it was about the play of the Bears defense.
Look for the Lions to try and run the ball between the tackles
with Scarbrough. While I would not expect a monster game, I would
not be shocked to see Bo score another rushing touchdown with
80 or so rushing yards.
Bills @ Cowboys
- (Katz) Line: DAL -7.0 Total: 46.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Josh Allen has at least 16 fantasy points
in every game this season where he didn’t face the Patriots.
Buoyed by a near touchdown’s worth of rushing per game,
Allen is one of the safest quarterbacks in fantasy. With that
being said, the Bills have had one of the easiest schedules thus
far. The Cowboys have forced the fewest interceptions with just
four, but they’ve also allowed just 12 passing touchdowns
and only allow 213.6 passing yards per game. On the road on a
short week could be tricky.
John Brown’s ability to produce consistently has been one
of the great stories of 2019. Brown has scored less than double
digits just once and has settled in as a reliable WR2. At home,
the Cowboys are allowing just 7.1 fantasy points per game to opposing
WR1s. Brown comes with a reliable floor, but a ceiling game seems
unlikely. Could there be a Cole Beasley revenge game narrative?
He’s a passable WR4 that you probably don’t need to
start with bye weeks over. The Cowboys allow 8.4 fantasy points
per game to the slot, where Beasley spends 69.3% of his time.
Dawson Knox is playing the vast majority of tight end snaps, but
he is not fantasy relevant.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore has finally been vanquished.
Devin Singletary has 21 carries last week and can be relied upon
for volume. Unfortunately, his passing game work seems to have
disappeared. Singletary has a mere three targets over the past
two weeks due to the immense positive game script the Bills have
experienced. If we are banking on that narrative, with the Bills
as touchdown underdogs this week, Singletary should be in line
for more passing work. The Cowboys have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns
on the season and are overall a middle of the road run defense.
You can certainly do worse than Singletary as your RB2.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Dak Prescott finished as a QB2 last week
for just the second time all season. The Bills have been a no
fly zone, allowing just 12.4 fantasy points per game to opposing
quarterbacks. Prescott gets to go from the top passing defense
to the third best passing defense. With that being said, he should
still succeed this week. As referenced above, the Bills haven’t
exactly faced many good quarterbacks. Prescott is, by far, the
best quarterback the Bills have seen. Expect Prescott to raise
the Bills’ 184.3 passing yards against average as well as
add to their mere seven touchdowns allowed.
Tre’Davious White erased Courtland Sutton last week, holding
him to just one catch for 27 yards, which was still more than
Amari Cooper accomplished against Stephon Gilmore. Now Cooper
gets to face off with White and his 1.22 fantasy points allowed
per target, 11th in the league. Prescott could look to utilize
Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb much like he did last week. Cobb
only played 44% of the snaps last week, but still managed a WR26
finish. The Bills allow 9.2 fantasy points per game to slot receivers,
where Cobb lines up 83% of the time. Cobb can definitely beat
that average. As for Gallup, he’s still averaging over eight
targets per game and is an every week starter. Jason Witten has
posted just two TE1 games all season. Blake Jarwin needs to start,
but as the Cowboys have proven, their coaching staff is incompetent.
Continue to ignore Witten in fantasy.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Ezekiel Elliott’s
usage remains excellent as he handled 25 touches last week including
four targets. Unfortunately, the ceiling just hasn’t been
there this season. Zeke has not recorded a 30 point game and has
just three games over 20. The good news is the Bills are more
vulnerable on the ground than through the air. They’ve allowed
11 rushing touchdowns and allow 4.4 yards per carry. Fantasy owners
would like to see more passing work for Elliott, but hopefully
he can find his way into the end zone this week in a game that
should feature positive game script.
Saints @ Falcons
- (Green) Line: NO -7.0 Total: 49.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Last week was a vintage Drew Brees game
as he completed a high percentage of his throws, topped 300 yards
and threw for multiple scores; and he also led a game-winning
drive as time expired. Ho hum. It was anything but easy three
weeks ago when the Saints laid an egg against the Falcons at home.
Brees' final line (32 completions for 287 yards) doesn't do justice
to what was a rough afternoon as the Saints failed to reach the
end zone in a humbling 27-9 loss.
New Orleans has scored 34 points in each of the two games since,
and the passing game has expanded to revolve around three players:
Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and now Jared Cook. Thomas has topped
100 yards in five consecutive games (and six of seven) and is
the top receiver in fantasy. Kamara, meanwhile, has 27 receptions
on 29 targets in three games since the bye. Cook has started to
gel with Brees, too, compiling a 14-206-2 line in that same three-game
stretch. He's finally a solid TE1.
Just when things seemed to be looking up for the Falcons, they
spit the bit in an ugly home loss to the free-falling Buccaneers.
Mistake-prone Jameis Winston threw for 313 yards and three scores
on just 18 completions in that one, and it looked like the Atlanta
secondary we'd seen before the bye week. With the Falcons' momentum
stalled, Thomas, Cook and Brees are all strong options on Thanksgiving
Day.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: Kamara hasn't been great on the ground
this season, topping 70 yards just twice and never reaching the
century mark (something Latavius Murray did in consecutive weeks
when Kamara was injured). His involvement in the passing game
is so significant (and consistent), however, that he remains a
high-end RB1 each week. As for Murray, he carried seven times
for 64 yards and a score against the Panthers last Sunday. That
marked his best game when both backs have been active and speaks
to his limited role most weeks.
This Thursday could be an exception, though, given the short
turnaround as he should be considerably fresher than Kamara. Granted,
the Falcons held Murray to just 19 yards in Week 10, but I'd still
consider him an intriguing flex. For the season, the Falcons have
allowed 109.9 yards rushing per game, which sits 18th in the NFL.
I'd expect inspired efforts all around from a Saints team that
was embarrassed last time.
Passing
Game Thoughts: At home against a team that'd lost five
of six and carried one of the league's worst secondaries into
town, Matt Ryan completed just half of his 46 passes for 271 yards,
0 TDs and an INT. After throwing for multiple scores in five of
six games to open the 2019 campaign, Ryan has accomplished that
feat just once in the last four. That came against these same
Saints in Week 10, though it was attached to just 182 passing
yards, his lowest full-game output of the year.
Beyond just losing a game, the Falcons also saw Julio Jones incur
a shoulder injury in Week 12. There's been no official update
from Dan Quinn, but Jones' track record speaks for itself when
it comes to gutting it out through injuries. He may be a game-time
decision so keep an eye on the inactives -- the silver lining
is that since they play Thursday you'll have plenty of time to
formulate a Plan B if necessary.
One player who isn't expected to play is Austin Hooper (knee),
who's likely to miss at least one more week with his knee injury.
That could leave Calvin Ridley (6-85-1 last week) as the primary
option. He's not Jones, but he's a must play independent of whoever
else suits up for the Falcons. Russell Gage caught eight passes
last week and could be a one-week roll of the dice if Jones can't
go.
Defensively, the Saints sit mid-pack against the pass, giving
up 232.7 yards per game. Their secondary could be buoyed by the
return of No. 1 cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) from
a two-game absence, though like many banged up players he's likely
to be a game-time decision on the short week.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: Like Lattimore, Devonta Freeman (foot)
has missed the past two games but is trending toward a possible
Turkey Day return. Sans Freeman, the running game has been stuck
in neutral, accounting for just 111 yards on 45 attempts combined
in that span. Brian Hill, who did a nice job in relief of Freeman
against the Saints, has 24 totes for 44 yards, a woeful 1.8 yards
per carry. It all comes down to Freeman's status: if he's active
he's an RB2, if not, Hill offers limited flex value.
New Orleans remains one of the NFL's better run defenses, allowing
only 88.5 yards per game this season. That being said, both Atlanta
(34 rushes for 143 yards) and Carolina (29-121) had success pounding
the rock recently, and I don't expect the Falcons to abandon that
approach this week.
Redskins @ Panthers
- (Green) Line: CAR -10.0 Total: 40.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Whatever the future may hold for Dwayne
Haskins, the 15th overall pick in this year's draft, in the present
he looks hopelessly overmatched. In three starts he has completed
47 of 86 passes for 514 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs. As bad as those
numbers look, the reality is probably worse as easily his best
statistical game came in Week 11 against the Jets when the 'Skins
trailed by 31 in the fourth quarter. If I were to rank all 32
starting QBs for Week 13, Haskins might be 33rd.
There's really one name to know when it comes to Washington's
passing game, and that's Terry McLaurin. The rookie starred at
Ohio State with Haskins and has come the closest to preserving
some semblance of fantasy appeal following the QB switch. In Haskins'
three starts, McLaurin has 12 catches (on 22 targets) for 180
yards. That's not great, but it could be low-end WR3 or flex value
in some leagues. As for Trey Quinn, Paul Richardson (hamstring)
and Kelvin Harmon, none of them carry any fantasy value.
Carolina has yielded 239.6 passing yards per game (18th) this
season, and they have to be salivating at the prospect of facing
Haskins on the heels of seeing Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Drew
Brees over the previous three weeks.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: While he hasn't done a whole lot just
yet, the fact that Derrius Guice is back on the field has to qualify
as a silver lining for Washington after injuries forced him to
miss 24 of his first 25 possible games. In two games since being
activated off IR, Guice has run 17 times for 56 yards; he also
caught Haskins' first TD pass on a screen that ruptured into a
45-yard score against the Jets.
With Guice coming off major injuries, the team will continue
to split touches between him and veteran Adrian Peterson, who
has seen 19 carries (for 52 yards) in two games with the second-year
pro. Between the timeshare and defenses stacking the line, neither
player is more than a low-end flex selection. Defensively, Carolina
has really struggled against the run (127.5 yards allowed per
game; 27th), but that's not enough for me to be bullish on Guice
or Peterson.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Coming off a poor showing in a 26-point
home loss to Atlanta, Kyle Allen held his own against Drew Brees
in Week 12, completing 23 of 36 passes for 256 yards and 3 TDs.
Allen's up-and-down performances from one week to the next is
a little reminiscent of Ryan Fitzpatrick, making him the same
kind of a risky play with a potentially high ceiling and a very
low floor. Despite Carolina being heavily favored, this doesn't
read like a great matchup for Allen, who is more of a QB2.
More and more each week the Panthers' passing game is looking
a three-man affair with D.J. Moore (six receptions, 126 yards,
2 TDs last week), Christian McCaffrey (9-69-1) and Greg Olsen
(5-44-0) getting most of the looks. The odd man out has been Curtis
Samuel (1-9-0), who salvaged some value last week by rushing for
40 yards. With fewer than 50 yards receiving in four of the last
five games, Samuel is no more than a shaky flex play, while Moore
is on the threshold of weekly WR1 status.
A couple of years ago, the storyline of this game would've been
the return of Josh Norman to Carolina. Now it's unclear what role
the veteran even has; Bill Callahan wouldn't commit to Norman
starting going forward after holding him out of action a week
ago due to medical reasons. Overall, Washington ranks 11th in
pass defense (231.4 yards per game) with Landon Collins as the
centerpiece of the secondary.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: McCaffrey carried 22 times for 64 yards
(2.9 YPC) and a touchdown against the Saints last week. His dual-threat
ability is currently unmatched, and he's in line for tons of touches
against Washington this Sunday. For the year, the 'Skins have
surrendered 137.6 rushing yards per game, which is 28th in the
NFL. This could be a big day for Run CMC.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It may surprise many readers to learn
that only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have more fantasy points
at the quarterback position over the past three games than Sam
Darnold.
The second-year quarterback is riding a hot streak with three
games of over 24 fantasy points, including 30.4 and 31.4 points
in his last two games against the Redskins and the Raiders. Darnold
is taking advantage of a soft schedule filled with teams in the
bottom quarter of the league in fantasy points allowed to QBs
and wide receivers.
Look for the hot streak to continue this week against a Bengals
defense that gives up the 11th-most points to quarterbacks and
the 19th most points to wide receivers. Cincinnati also struggles
against running backs, making all the skill position players on
the Jets nice plays this week.
Nine different receivers posted at least ten fantasy points against
the Bengals this season, highlighted by Cooper Kupp’s 220
yards and a score for 28 points Week 8.
Both slot possession and deep threat receivers have found success
against the Bengals, making Jamison Crowder and Robby Anderson
viable plays this week.
Anderson’s targets continue to be an issue with no more
than five targets in any game doing back to Week 8 at Jacksonville,
but he does have a score in each of the last two games and could
be in line for a big play or two on Sunday.
Like Anderson, tight end Ryan Griffin has been on a hot streak
with a touchdown in each of his last two games. The Bengals have
given up big games to Darren Waller and Mark Andrews, recently,
so Griffin owners may want to stay in the flames and play him
this week.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: The first year of Le’Veon Bell as
a New York Jet has been a mixed bag through 11 games of the season.
Bell’s 10.6 point per game ranks 24th among the running
back position - not exactly what owners were hoping for when he
was drafted in the top 15 overall this summer.
Bell does have a streak of at least ten fantasy points in his
last four games, despite posting a meager 3.4 yard per carry average.
This is the week where Bell will pay dividends. The Bengals are
dreadful at stopping the run, with 12 total touchdowns allowed
this season, and three players have topped 100 rushing yards.
Benny Snell just dropped 98 yards on the Bengals, leading me
to believe Bell is in line for a similar yardage total with the
upside of a touchdown or two.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Bengals benched Andy Dalton in favor
of rookie Ryan Finley after their Week 9 bye with the hope of
giving the rook a few games to prove he is the quarterback of
the future. With the Bengals a near-lock for the first overall
pick and a chance to draft Tua or Joe Barrow, it made sense at
the time to see if Finley had much to offer.
Finley did not respond well to his opportunity, with 474 passing
yards and two touchdowns in three games. The former North Carolina
State star completed just 47% of his passes, looking lost and
times like a deer in headlights.
So, back to Dalton the team will go with five games left in the
season. Dalton returns to the starting lineup with a good chance
of being fantasy relevant in two-quarterback leagues, and his
return to the field should be a boost to Tyler Boyd and Auden
Tate
The Jets rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks
and eighth in points allowed to wide receivers. Both New York
teams have been a smorgasbord of fantasy goodness for wide receivers
this season, with the Jets and the Giants ranking in the top 10
in points allowed.
Eleven different wide receivers have topped ten fantasy points
this year, and four opponents have scored more than 19 points.
This game has the makings of a shootout between two teams who
have little to play for and two defenses who cannot stop anyone.
Fire up Tyler Boyd as a solid low-end WR2, and slot receiver Alex
Erickson could be a sneaky flex option in PPR formats.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: After a terrible start to the season in
which he posted 4.4 combined fantasy points against the Seahawks
and 49ers, Mixon has steadily climbed up the running back rankings
with an average of 12 fantasy points in his last four games.
The matchup against the Jets is not great, as New York ranks
23rd in the league in points allowed to running backs. No running
back has scored a touchdown on the ground against New York since
Sony Michel posted three rushing touchdowns Week 7, and no opposing
back has topped 30 yards in a game since Leonard Fournette rushed
for 76 yards on 19 carries in Week 8.
The way to beat the Jets as of late has been in the air and not
the ground, and I anticipate head coach Zac Taylor will look to
take advantage of this fact in his gameplan on Sunday.
Titans @ Colts
- (Green) Line: IND -2.5 Total: 43.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Since making the switch to Ryan Tannehill,
the Titans have won four of five and are right back in the thick
of the playoff chase. Tannehill has been highly effective, throwing
for multiple scores in each of those four wins. He's also shown
some shiftiness as a runner, amassing 115 yards and three TDs
on the ground in the past three games. The yardage hasn't been
stellar, nor has the number of completions, which adds a lot of
volatility to Tennessee's passing game.
There are no sure things amongst the Titans receiving corps,
but A.J. Brown (4-135-1 in Week 12) offers the best odds to contribute
on a game-by-game basis. There's still risk a plenty with the
rookie, though, who has been held to under 20 receiving yards
twice on Tannehill's watch. Corey Davis has battled injuries and
done little when on the field, so I'd shy away from him for now.
Delanie Walker (ankle) was finally placed on IR, giving the top
job to Jonnu Smith, who could have some late-season appeal. Adam
Humphries isn't worth owning.
Indy got hit with some big plays last week against the Texans,
which at least gives hope to downfield threats like Brown and
Davis, though that tandem isn't in the same league as DeAndre
Hopkins and Will Fuller. On the season, the Colts rank 16th against
the pass, allowing 235 yards per game via the air.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: Derrick Henry has been an absolute savage
over the past two games, compiling 347 yards on 42 carries (8.3
YPC) and four scores while hitting long TD runs in each. Even
without the benefit of involvement in the passing game, Henry
has ascended into RB1 territory. He ran for 82 yards and a score
in Week 2 against the Colts, which rank eighth in the NFL against
the run (97 yards per game).
Passing
Game Thoughts: In his two games since returning from
a knee injury, Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 148 and 129 yards,
respectively. Whether that's scheme, a lack of healthy options
outside or the lingering effects of the injury is unknown, but
it has undone a lot of good will he'd cultivated with fantasy
owners. During his first meeting with the Titans, Brissett passed
for just 146 yards but supplemented that with a trio of touchdowns
strikes. He's definitely someone to leave on your bench for the
rematch.
Indianapolis' aerial attack got good news last Thursday when
T.Y. Hilton (calf) came back from a calf injury. He was on a snap
count, though, and didn't look sharp; he had a couple of important
drops and finished with just 18 yards on three grabs. He also
reportedly aggravated the injury, and has been ruled out. After
Hilton, the next best bet is Jack Doyle, who should see more looks
with Eric Ebron (ankle) placed on IR. Zach Pascal has completely
vanished but could have some flex appeal with Hilton out.
At 255.6 yards allowed per game, the Titans are currently 24th
against the pass. They've been worse than that of late, only holding
Kyle Allen (232) under that average in their last five games with
three QBs passing for 300-plus. The loss of pass rusher Cameron
Wake (hamstring) could hurt as well. It's just unclear whether
the Colts have the pieces (or mindset) to take advantage.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: With Marlon Mack (hand) out, Jonathan
Williams was the bell cow in Week 12, carrying the ball 26 times
for 104 yards and a TD. Look for more of the same even with normal
backup Jordan Wilkins (ankle) ready to contribute. The Colts rarely
spelled Mack with Wilkins when both were healthy, and I'd expect
them to ride with Williams barring fumbles or complete ineffectiveness.
Nyheim Hines has been marginally more involved recently, but it's
still not enough to take notice.
Tennessee is 12th against the run this season (103.8 per game)
and is coming off a physical matchup with Jacksonville's Leonard
Fournette, who ran 24 times for 97 yards and a pair of scores.
I could see Williams functioning in a similar high-usage role
as Fournette and serving as a middling RB2.
49ers @ Ravens
- (Swanson) Line: BAL -6.0 Total: 46.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: In what could be a Super Bowl preview
between arguably the two best teams in their respective conferences,
the 10-1 San Francisco head to Baltimore to take on the 9-2 Ravens.
After a slow start to the season, Jimmy Garoppolo has been on
fire as of late with 13 passing touchdowns and 1,417 passing yards
over his last five games. His 24.8 points per game during that
span ranks ninth at the position, ahead of Drew Brees, Russell
Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady.
Jimmy G has been far more efficient over that span, completing
over 70% of his passes while throwing just three picks.
He and the other skill position players face a stiff challenge
this week against a team built in a similar fashion to their own,
one that wants to run the ball first and play solid defense. The
problem is the Ravens boast the leading MVP candidate and an offense
that just dropped 45 points on the Rams and appeared to be able
to score at will.
It will be an uphill battle for Jimmy G and the offense to keep
pace with Lamar Jackson and the Rams. The 49ers need to stick
with the run, and high percentage passes to mitigate turnovers
and keep Jackson on the sideline.
The Ravens allow the 6th-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks,
and wide receivers have managed to score a paltry six touchdowns
this season. Look for Garoppolo to lean heavily on throws to George
Kittle and the running backs for the 49ers in favor of trying
to force passes to the opportunistic secondary led by Jimmy Smith
and Marcus Peters.
Starting left tackle Joe Staley missed the last two games with
finger and knee issues. He is once against questionable to play,
but he has not been ruled out as of now. His return would be a
massive lift in limiting the Baltimore pass rush led by Matt Judon.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: The 49ers lead the NFL in fantasy points
scored at the running back position as head coach Kyle Shannahan
continues to produce one of the more potent ground games in the
league.
The vaunted Niner rush attack has been somewhat limited over
the past five games, scoring the 4th most points per game behind
the Ravens, Packers, and Chargers.
Look for Shanahan to focus on trying to run the ball extensively
against the Ravens in what shod be a physical, smash-mouth type
of game and a throwback to the old NFL.
Although the Rams and Todd Gurley failed to do much on the ground
against the Ravens last week, Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde combined
to post 105 yards and a score Week 11 and Joe Mixon posted 151
total yards Week 10.
Tevin Coleman should be viewed as a solid, low-end No.2 running
back while Raheem Mostert could once again be in the flex conversation.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Lamar Jackson experience took Hollywood
by storm on Sunday Night Football, with Jackson throwing five
touchdowns for the second time this season. Jackson continues
to be the cheat code in fantasy football, giving his owners a
massive leg up over the competition.
Hollywood Brown lived up to his name, with two touchdowns and
42 receiving yards on five receptions. Brown now has a receiving
touchdown in each of the last five games and should be a must-start
against even the stout 49ers pass defense. One of the reasons
why the 49ers have been so tough to pass on his the pressure they
get on the quarterback. If Jackson is able to evade the pass rush
and allow Brown to get downfield behind the San Francisco secondary,
there are big plays that can be made on Richard Sherman with speed
receivers.
San Francisco allows the third-fewest points to quarterbacks
and the fewest total passing yards on the season. No team has
allowed fewer points to opposing tight ends, and only the Pats
and the Bucs have allowed fewer points to running backs.
This is the classic battle of strengths against strengths, the
best offense against one of the best defenses. While I don’t
anticipate this will be a high scoring game, Jackson’s amazing
versatility will allow him to still produce enough fantasy points
to be a strong start.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram ran like a man possessed last
week when he rumbled for 111 yards and two total touchdowns against
a Rams team the has not allowed a rushing touchdown or 100-yard
rusher since Week 6.
The Raven run game is a perfect mix of being powerful, explosive,
dynamic, and complicated. Just when you think you have them stopped,
Jackson busts a 40-yard run on a read-option, and Ingram punches
you in the face on the next run game for ten yards up the middle.
If there is a defensive line to match the running ability of
the Ravens offense, it is the 49ers. They are a deep line with
size and speed, and the addition of Nick Bosa on the edge gives
them speed and power to keep contain.
Bosa’s ability to read the option and limit the runs outside
will be key to the success of the Niners in winning this game.
He has struggled with this at times, and I wouldn’t be surprised
to see offensive coordinator Greg Roman key in on read-options
to Bosa’s side.
A knee injury to starting center Matt Skura may negatively affect
the way the Ravens run the ball inside, as rookie Patrick Mekari
will have his hands full stopping DJ Jones, DeForest Buckner,
and Arik Armstead. You are still starting Mark Ingram, just be
aware that the loss of Skura could make running a bit more difficult.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With the Falcons riding high after back-to-back
road wins within the division, Jameis Winston looked to have his
work cut out for him. As it turned out, last Sunday proved to
be light work for Winston, who threw for 313 yards on just 18
completions with three TDs and the obligatory two interceptions.
In a year where many of the expected studs have fallen flat (Jared
Goff, Carson Wentz, even Tom Brady), Winston has become a solid
QB1 where INTs are simply the cost of doing business.
Chris Godwin activated God(win) Mode against the Falcons, hauling
in seven passes for 184 yards and two scores. That easily outpaced
Mike Evans (4-50-0), and that pairing has traded statistical supremacy
throughout the season. They absolutely dominate the focus of Tampa's
passing game, and both are locked in as WR1s. Beyond that, there's
no value to be found. Cameron Brate went from 10 catches in Week
11 to none last week, and O.J. Howard had another one-catch afternoon…
but hey, Vita Vea caught a TD...
Jacksonville ranks 10th against the pass this year, though it's
debatable how much stock should be put into that ranking considering
how miserable they've been against the run; a week ago, Ryan Tannehill
attempted just 18 passes in a 42-20 throttling. I haven't seen
anything from the Jags to make me think Tampa will shy away from
passing.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: After handing off just six times in Week
11, Bruce Arians went for more balance last week, calling Ronald
Jones' number 12 times for 51 yards and a score, and Peyton Barber
for 11 carries and 32 yards. The earlier proclamation that Jones
was the starter has had almost no impact on distribution of touches,
leaving Jones as a low-end RB3 and Barber as a nominal flex option.
Both are staring down the tastiest of matchups this week, though,
as the Jags are giving up 142.3 rushing yards per game (29th).
Incredibly, they've been even worse lately, allowing three 100-yard
performances in the last TWO games -- Indy had two runners top
the century mark. There's risk given Arians' aversion to sticking
with the run, but Jones and Barber have tangible upside.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Much was made of Jacksonville's decision
between Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew, but given how porous the
defense has been recently it probably hasn't mattered. Foles was
32 of 48 for 272 yards in Week 12, giving him 95 passes in two
games, but had no TDs. While this isn't the direction Doug Marrone
wants to go with his offense, playing from behind has forced his
hand, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see more of the same in
Week 13.
Dede Westbrook (8-69-0 last week) seems to be separating a bit
from Chris Conley (4-49-0) as the No.2 target behind D.J. Chark
(5-38-0), which should make Chark and Westbrook the plays this
Sunday while Conley rides the pine. The development of Leonard
Fournette has been an interesting subplot, as he led the team
in both targets (12) and receptions (nine) last week. There's
nothing of interest at tight end.
Tampa Bay may possess the worst secondary in the NFL. They're
currently 31st, allowing 289.9 passing yards per game. Given their
talent on the defensive line and ability to make life tough on
running backs, opponent after opponent goes after the Bucs' DBs,
usually for much success. It's hard not to like some of the matchups
here for J-Ville, though I'd still be hesitant to insert Foles
into your lineup.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: A forgotten man the previous two games,
Fournette ran the ball 24 times for 92 yards and a pair of touchdowns
against the Titans. He might be hard pressed to match that production
against Tampa Bay, which allows just 78.7 yards per contest on
the ground (second-fewest in the NFL). That being said, Fournette's
passing-game exploits should allow him to retain RB1 value.
Packers at Giants
- (Katz) Line: GB -6.5 Total: 45.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: The bad news is Aaron Rodgers has devolved
into nothing more than a streamer based on matchup. The good news
is matchups don’t get much better than the Giants. The Giants
allow 22 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Rodgers has
been the epitome of all or nothing this season. He has three top
three finishes and six finishes outside the top 20. Rodgers is
far more likely to be top three this week. The Giants allow 21.2
fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s. Davante Adams should
smash this week. As for the Packers’ WR2, there is no one.
Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, and
Jake Kumerow all rotate making them tough to roster in fantasy.
Jimmy Graham pays is a threat to catch a random touchdown but
you should not be starting him.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: Aaron Jones had a miserable game last
week against the 49ers. Things should be much easier against the
Giants, who have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns this season. Matt
LaFleur also came out and said he needs to get Jones more involved
in the passing game. Jamaal Williams is also in play this week
because even though Jones should be more involved, Williams is
still playing about 50% of the snaps. He has 31 touches over his
past two games. The Packers will score a lot of points so both
backs have an opportunity to shine.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Daniel Jones continues to look clueless
in the pocket. He’s taken an absurd 23 sacks while committing
11 fumbles over his last five games. Yet, somehow, he has an overall
QB1 and QB3 fantasy performance during that span. Jones’
inability to help the Giants win games does not keep him from
being fantasy viable. The Packers are touchdown favorites and
if they get out to an early lead, we could see Jones eclipse 40
pass attempts again. Jones is a near lock to turn it over a couple
times, but he can overcome that with his stable rushing floor.
Jones has six games of at least 20 rushing yards.
It helps that Sterling Shepard is back healthy. He played every
snap last week and saw nine targets. He may run into Jaire Alexander,
but the volume is going to be there. Chase the targets. Evan Engram
remains sidelined with a foot injury and I’d be surprised
if he played again this season. Giants’ tight ends are off
the table. Golden Tate is dealing with a concussion making him
a tricky start if he plays against a Packers defense allowing
just 5.7 fantasy points per game to the slot. Darius Slayton has
played well and still logged an 86% snap share last week. He’s
a desperation flex play.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: Saquon Barkley is the most talented running
back in the NFL but the Giants offensive line cannot block and
they cannot move the ball. Barkley is having a worse season than
2018 David Johnson. He’s barely an RB1. The Packers have
struggled against the run, though. They allow 4.8 yards per carry
and have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns. It would be nice to see
Barkley more involved in the passing game as he only has eight
targets over his past two games. You are never benching Barkley,
but you are merely hoping for the explosion; it is far from a
certainty, or even likely.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Baker Mayfield entered the 2019 season
on the shortlist of breakout quarterbacks after points a record-setting
27 passing touchdowns as a rookie in 2018. The addition of Odell
Beckham Jr. and Kareem Hunt to an already stacked skill-position
set had some people thinking Mayfield could be this year’s
Patrick Mahomes.
As is often the case with breakout rookies, the sophomore season
for Mayfield started off rocky with the Browns losing six of their
first eight games. After the first six games of the year, Mayfield
led the league in interceptions and had yet to throw more than
one passing touchdown in any game.
Flash forward to the last three games of the season against Buffalo,
Pittsburgh, and Miami. In those games, Mayfield proved to be a
fantasy stud, with an average for 24 points per game, including
327 yards and three passing touchdowns for 28.9 points last week
at home against the Dolphins.
Two weeks ago, Mayfield threw two passing touchdowns and rushed
for another against the same Steelers team that he takes on this
week at Heinz Field. The Browns won that game 21-7, with Myles
Garrett beating Mason Rudolph over the head with his own helmet
in the closing minutes.
It is going to be difficult for Mayfield owners to bench him
even in a tough road matchup like this. Although Baker did post
23.8 points against the Steelers Week 11, Pittsburgh does allow
the 10th fewest points to opposing quarterbacks, and they will
be out for revenge in this divisional tilt.
Russell Wilson and Brian Hoyer each posted three passing touchdowns
when their respective teams played at Heinz Field, while Jared
Goff and Lamar Jackson were held to a combined one passing touchdown.
Jarvis Landry scored a receiving touchdown in each of his last
four games, including one on four catches for 43 yards against
Pittsburgh Week 11. You cannot bench him or OBJ in this game,
as Beckham has averaged ten targets in each of his last four games
and scored his first receiving touchdown in over two months last
week against Miami.
On the injury front, starting left tackle Greg Robinson did not
practice on Wednesday and could be out with a concussion. Although
not one of the better pass-blocking tackles in the league, the
Steelers pass rush led by TJ Watt and Bud Dupree could force a
ton of outside pressure on Mayfield.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: The running back group led by Nick Chubb
ranks eighth in fantasy points scored on the year and sixth in
the past three weeks since Kareem Hunt joined the team from suspension.
Both Chubb and Hunt scored a rushing touchdown last week against
the lowly Dolphins defense, with the former posing his best receiving
day of the year as well. Hunt posted 74 total yards against Pitt
Week 11, and Chubb rushed for 92 yards on 27 carries in a lopsided
win.
With the Steelers turning to Duck Hodges to help spark the offense,
the Browns may not have the same blowout win and positive rushing
game script they had two weeks ago.
On the year, the Steelers give up the sixth-fewest points to
running backs and just four total rushing touchdowns on the season.
No opposing back has reached 100 yards against the Steelers, and
no running back has caught a receiving touchdown.
Chubb’s first and second down volume makes him a decent
No.2 running back this week, and Hunt still has some flex appeal,
but they certainly do not have the same ceiling they each enjoyed
last week at home against the Dolphins.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Devlin Hodges takes over the starting
role at quarterback from the shell-shocked and underperforming
Mason Rudolph. Only the Broncos and Redskins have fewer fantasy
points this season generated at the quarterback position, and
Hodges clearly gave the team a spark last week against the Bengals
when he relieved Rudolph in the second half.
Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster was a DNP on Wednesday’s
practice report and looks like he will miss another game with
a knee injury. Another injury to keep an eye on is left tackle
Alejandro Villanueva, who was limited with a shoulder injury.
Villanueva looks like he is going to play but will likely be limited
and could be in an out of the lineup.
The good news for Villanueva and the entire offensive lineman
for the Steelers is the fact that Myles Garrett is out indefinitely
for the brawl he incited by hitting Mason Rudolph over the head
with a helmet two weeks ago. Larry Ogunjobi returns to the defensive
line with his suspension served, but he has more of an impact
on the run game than the pass.
James Washington took advantage of extra targets and also took
advantage of a terrible Dolphins secondary to post three catches
for 98 yards and a touchdown. Should Smith-Schuster miss another
game, look for Washington and rookie Diontae Johnson to each garner
at least five targets against the Browns.
After a slow start to the season and injuries to the secondary,
the Browns have tightened up their pass defense as of late and
are no longer a team to target in fantasy. Cleveland has given
up the eighth-fewest points to wide receivers in the past three
weeks, with only Allen Hurns reaching pay dirt.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Benny Snell gave the rushing attack
a shot in the arm with 98 yards on a 21 carries against the Bengals
last week. It was the first time a Steeler running back rushed
more than 15 times dating back to James Conner’s 23/145/1
line against Miami Week 8.
Look for Snell to once again be the hammer in the Pittsburgh
ground game with Jaylen Samuels working more as a passing down
threat. Snell is the more powerful runner of the two and appears
to have gained favor in the eyes of head coach Mike Tomlin.
The return of Larry Ogunjobi will give the Browns defense their
own shot in the arm. Cleveland ranks 20th in fantasy points allowed
to running backs, but they have not allowed a rushing touchdown
shine Week 8 or a 100-yard day since Chris Carson lit them up
for 124 yards on 24 carries back in Week 6.
Snell is a nice low-end No. 2 who will deliver solid production
assuming the game flow does not get out of hand, and the Steelers
are forced to throw more than they would like.
It is hard to recommend starting Samuels based on the low volume
we have seen over the past two weeks. If he scores, he is a great
flex, but he could just as easily give you a goose on Turkey week.
Rams @ Cardinals
- (Caron) Line: LAR -3.0 Total: 47.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Rams’ offensive struggles continued
this past week as they were humiliated in front of a national
audience on Monday Night Football, with Jared Goff failing to
throw a touchdown pass for his third straight game. Goff has also
failed to exceed 250 passing yards in this recent stretch and
has thrown a total of five interceptions. While these struggles
are certainly something that fantasy owners need to be concerned
about as the once-dominant Rams offense seems to be a mere shell
of its former self this season, it’s also worth considering
that the Rams have had a really difficult stretch of opponents
recently. The Pittsburgh pass defense has been playing substantially
better since they added Minkah Fitzpatrick and the Bears and Ravens
are among the best pass defenses in football. So while it’s
easy to just say “don’t trust the Rams,” there’s
certainly also reason to be a bit optimistic that things might
turn around this week as the Rams head on the road to face one
of the league’s worst pass defenses, the Arizona Cardinals.
Arizona has given up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks
this season, including a league-most 29 touchdown passes with
only six interceptions. They’ve conceded four straight 300-yard
passing performances and they’ve also given up a total of
12 touchdown passes over that four-game stretch. Goff isn’t
a particularly exciting play given that he’s struggled so
much lately, but this might also be the perfect time to jump on
the LA passing game in DFS.
With Goff playing so poorly, it should come as no surprise that
the Rams pass catching weapons have been terrible as of late,
but 10 targets to Cooper Kupp in Week 12 are something that we
shouldn’t look past even though he was only able to convert
those opportunities into 35 total yards. This week he gets an
Arizona defense that has been absolutely decimated by opposing
slot receivers this season, so Kupp is a very strong play and
should be considered a WR1, especially in PPR formats.
Fellow wide receivers Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods should also
be on fantasy radars as the matchup is intriguing, but it’s
a little more difficult to trust them given that they’ve
really disappointed as a whole this season. On a positive note,
Woods has been targeted a total of 20 times over his past two
games, so perhaps this is the week when he’s finally able
to put those targets together and produce a WR1 game. We’ll
rank him as a WR2 here, but there’s upside given the matchup.
Cooks, meanwhile, is still a viable option if you’re looking
for a Flex play, but he’s been held under 75 receiving yards
in all but one game this season, while only scoring one touchdown,
so don’t expect a massive performance. Still, he’s
the most explosive of the bunch and does have the best big play
ability.
The tight end position is terrible throughout the NFL so it’s
not even all that disappointing that Gerald Everett has only been
targeted three times over the past two weeks while Tyler Higbee
saw five targets in Week 12 alone. Both players have serious touchdown
upside this week against what is by far the worst fantasy defense
against opposing tight ends. Arizona has given up 12 touchdowns
in 11 games to the position this season - four more than any other
team - and they just got done getting smacked by San Francisco’s
backup tight end, Ross Dwelley, for two touchdowns in Week 11.
At this point it’s a trend that we cannot ignore. Everett
is easily the better option and has to be considered a pretty
nice TE1, but those who are desperate at the position in deeper
leagues could find do worse than Higbee as a sleeper play this
week. It’s also worth noting that Everett has been banged
up this week and is considered day-to-day, but he could potentially
miss this game. If he does, make sure you move Higbee up into
the bottom-end-TE1 range.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: The Rams offense has been so bad and so
unpredictable that even one of the league’s best fantasy
players over the past few seasons, Todd Gurley, has failed to
produce start-worthy numbers many times already this season. One
of those times was this past week against the Ravens when Gurley
was given just six carries, which he converted for only 22 rushing
yards. He did add three receptions, but totaled negative three
yards on those catches, so he really didn’t even salvage
his fantasy day. Gurley entered that game after coming off of
a 28-touch day - by far his biggest usage of the season - and
now he’s coming off of his lowest-usage game. Certainly
the massively negative game script didn’t help, but the
Rams offense as a whole just seems to be in shambles.
Thankfully this week they get a bit of a break as they face the
Cardinals who have been one of the league’s worst defenses
overall this season. While they’re better against the run
than they are the pass, Gurley is still in a nice spot against
Arizona’s bottom-10-ranked fantasy run defense.
Gurley’s best bet for fantasy production remains his ability
to convert near the goal line which he still seems to be doing
fairly well this season. He should have more opportunities in
the red zone this week, as well, as opposed to recent weeks where
the Rams have faced significantly better defenses.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray went through
a stretch where he failed to throw a touchdown in four of five
games, but seems to be hitting his stride down the stretch as
he’s given his fantasy owners three straight excellent fantasy
performances. Murray is using his legs to prop up his fantasy
production, but he’s also producing as a passer, having
thrown seven touchdown passes over his past three games. Murray’s
upside, along with his high floor due to his rushing ability,
makes him a mid-range QB1 this week.
Murray’s increased productivity through the air has been
great for his pass catchers. Wide receiver Christian Kirk is averaging
nearly nine targets per game in the contests he’s played,
so that type of opportunity, in an offense that is starting to
perform better, makes him a good WR2 here in Week 13. Larry Fitzgerald,
meanwhile, isn’t seeing quite enough volume to break into
the WR2 or even WR3 range, but he’s still a decent Flex
option in deeper PPR formats. Andy Isabella has shown some explosiveness,
but he, like the other depth pass catchers in this offense, just
don’t see enough playing time to be considered anything
other than big play threats.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: With both David Johnson and Chase Edmonds
expected back on the field this week, the Cardinals offense appears
to be headed toward a dreaded “three headed monster”
type backfield. Kenyan Drake has actually been fairly productive
since being traded to the Cardinals, but it’s going to be
tough to trust he, or any of these backs, until we see more of
what head coach Kliff Kingsbury will opt to do in terms of playing
time. Drake is probably the best option given that Edmonds and
Johnson are still likely hampered by their respective injuries,
but don’t look at him as anything more than a Flex in this
contest. He’s facing an Arizona defense that got torched
for nearly 200 rushing yards by the Ravens running backs this
past week, so there’s some upside, but the Arizona offensive
line is not nearly as good as the one in Baltimore.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was supposed to be at least a decent
matchup in Week 12 for Derek Carr and the Oakland passing game,
but Raiders could not have disappointed more than they did. Carr
threw for just 127 yards in a blowout loss to the Jets while failing
to throw a single touchdown pass. He also threw an interception,
giving him his worst fantasy day of the season. Obviously this
performance was awful and it’s often difficult to forgive
players who just burned you, but this week he does get to face
a Kansas City defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in the league
in fantasy points given up to opposing quarterbacks.
Carr only threw for 198 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions
against this defense back in Week 2 so we do need to be cautious
and certainly Carr isn’t a great start, but there’s
reason to be hopeful for his pass catching weapons, primarily
wide receiver Tyrell Williams and tight end Darren Waller.
Williams caught five passes against the Chiefs when these teams
met earlier this season, including a touchdown reception, and
Hunter Renfrow will miss this week’s contest, so Williams
should see an increased target share against a weaker-than-average
Kansas City secondary. He hasn’t been nearly as productive
in the second half of the season as he was in the first half,
but he’s still worth putting in your lineup as a WR3 in
this matchup.
Waller, on the other hand, is still a TE1 even though he’s
been struggling as of late. We say this every week, but tight
end is just a complete dumpster fire this season, so any player
who’s consistently seeing a good number of targets is fantasy
viable. Waller hasn’t caught a touchdown since back in Week
8, but he’s only failed to see at least five targets in
one game this season. The Chiefs saw the Chargers’ tight
end Hunter Henry targeted nine times against them this past week
so clearly there are some deficiencies in covering that position,
so keep Waller in your lineup with hopes of him getting back into
the end zone.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: Potential NFL rookie of the year Josh Jacobs
was one of the major victims of the horrible performance by the
Raiders offense this past week. Jacobs hadn’t been held
under 10 PPR fantasy points in a game since all the way back in
Week 3, but he was held to just 34 rushing yards and a single
two-yard reception with no touchdowns in this past week’s
pathetic loss to the Jets.
This week Jacobs will look to bounce back against a Chiefs defense
that he rushed for 99 yards against in his second game as a pro
earlier this season. Perhaps even more importantly, the Chiefs
have been the league’s worst fantasy defense against running
backs, including giving up five different 100-yard rushers. It
would be nice to see Jacobs contributing more in the passing game,
but that doesn’t seem like it’s a focus of the Oakland
offense so don’t look for that. Still, he’s a threat
to get to 100 or more rushing yards and is a good bet to score
a touchdown this week against a Chiefs defense that has given
up 13 total touchdowns to opposing running backs so far this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Chiefs avoided a huge blow as it appears
that Tyreek Hill will be back on the field after being knocked
out of Kansas City’s Week 11 game with a hamstring injury.
Hill took the bye week to get healthy and appears to be back to
at least close to full speed as he’ll face Raiders defense
that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide
receivers. You wouldn’t be benching Hill anyway, but this
is a particularly great matchup for him and he should be considered
a high-end WR1.
Tight end Travis Kelce remains the top tight end in fantasy football
and he’s now caught seven passes in each of his past three
games, including touchdowns in back-to-back contests. We knew
he was likely in for some positive touchdown regression after
having caught just two touchdowns over his first nine games this
season, so it’s no surprise to see him getting back into
the end zone.
The other pass catching weapons in Kansas City are always a threat,
but it’s very difficult to trust them given that they simply
don’t see consistent targets come their way. Sammy Watkins,
who is the No.2 wide receiver in the offense, has only been targeted
more than five times in two games this season and that’s
just not enough to make him a start-worthy option in anything
other than deep seasonal fantasy leagues. The other pass catchers,
including Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson, often contribute
at least one deep pass catch between the two of them, but that’s
probably not enough to justify putting them in your lineup either.
Of course, all of this means that Patrick Mahomes should be in
for a nice fantasy day and he’ll again be in the conversation
to be the top-ranked fantasy quarterback here in Week 13.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: With Damien Williams looking
less than likely to play, the Kansas City backfield looks like
it could be a split between veteran LeSean McCoy and second-year
back Darrel Williams. McCoy was the top-scoring back for the team
earlier this season but has seemingly fallen out of favor with
the coaching staff after a few untimely fumbles. This has led
the way for Darrel and Damien Williams to get some additional
playing time, but perhaps more importantly, it has made this backfield
significantly less enticing for fantasy purposes. We just don’t
know which back - if any - is going to see consistent enough touches
to justify putting them into our lineups. If it’s just McCoy
and Darrel Williams then you can consider putting them in your
lineup as a Flex, but it’s probably best to try to avoid
this situation, especially if Damien Williams does play, given
that it could then become a three-headed backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With just four touchdown passes and eight
interceptions over his past four games, it’s now gotten
to the point that we can no longer trust Philip Rivers to be a
QB1 for fantasy purposes. He was always surviving on borrowed
time given his lack of mobility in this changed league, but Rivers’
passing ability seems to be significantly worse than what we’ve
seen from him in the past.
Rivers’ lack of efficiency is affecting his receivers, of
course, but Keenan Allen has been getting better down the stretch
as he’s now caught eight passes in back-to-back games. Perhaps
more important to note is that Rivers has struggled as of late,
but that’s led to him relying even more heavily on Allen,
as he’s been targeted 10 or more times in four of his past
five games. That type of usage is great and would usually mean
that a player is an obvious WR1, but Allen hasn’t very efficient
with his targets and he’s facing a Denver defense that held
him to just four catches for 18 yards when these teams played
back in Week 5. We’ll still give him a WR2 ranking this
week due to the potentially high target share, but don’t
be surprised if he disappoints.
Fellow wide receiver Mike Williams is still on the injury report
with a knee injury heading into this weekend’s contest,
but he’s continued to be the team’s big play threat.
He still hasn’t caught a touchdown this season which is
crazy considering his red zone usage, unfortunately, but that
could come at any time. The lack of touchdowns and lack of targets
as a whole make Williams a dangerous start this week against a
good Denver secondary. He did catch six passes for 64 yards against
this defense so he’s not hopeless but leave him out of your
lineup if you can.
Tight end Hunter Henry continues to be one of the elite producers
at a horrible position and he’s now scored double-digit
fantasy points in all but one game since he returned from injury.
The Broncos are a middle-of-the-pack defense against opposing
tight ends but Henry is an easy TE1 in this and really any matchup.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: There are very few NFL backfields where
more than one back is viable on a weekly basis, but the Chargers
certainly have one of those. With Melvin Gordon seeing primary
back touches and Austin Ekeler contributing as one of the league’s
top passing down specialists, there’s a realistic opportunity
for both players to have quality fantasy games in any contest.
The Broncos got ran all over by the Bills in Week 12 as the duo
of Devin Singletary and Frank Gore rushed for 171 combined yards
but they’ve been a decent defense as a whole against fantasy
running backs so far this season.
One thing to look for in this game is whether or not the Broncos
will significantly change their gameplan from the one they utilized
against the Chargers when these teams played back in Week 5. In
that contest, it was Austin Ekeler who gave fantasy owners a monster
fantasy day as he caught a ridiculous 15 passes. Gordon was just
coming back from his holdout so he didn’t see a full workload,
but even he contributed four receptions in that game to go along
with his 12 carries. It’d be pretty difficult for this duo
to do that again, but both players are viable fantasy options
here in Week 13.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With second round draft pick Drew Lock
stepping in, the Broncos will now be turning to their third quarterback
this season, with their hopes set on Lock being their future franchise
QB. The coaching staff hasn’t exactly shown much confidence
in the young passer so far, but it’d be hard for him to
be much worse than what the team has been dealing with.
Lock himself isn’t an option for fantasy purposes in his
first start, so the real question is how the change behind center
is going to affect the Denver pass catchers, particularly Courtland
Sutton. Sutton has been a breakout receiver this season and has
been dealing with an ankle injury as of late, but he did not show
up on the team’s Week 13 injury report and now gets to play
with the big-armed Lock. Sutton is a big play receiver but he’s
also been targeted at least six times in every game this season
so there’s a good chance that things don’t get any
worse for him. If anything, the odds are that he’ll have
more of an opportunity to make plays down the field if the Broncos
opt to take advantage of the cannon attached to Lock’s shoulder.
The only other Denver pass catcher who should be looked at for
fantasy purposes is tight end Noah Fant. Fant delivered a breakout
performance in Week 9 with his 115-yard, one touchdown performance
against the Browns, but has since caught just seven passes for
74 yards over his past two contests. He will be playing against
a Chargers secondary that has mostly been good against opposing
tight ends this week, but Kansas City’s Travis Kelce did
beat them for seven catches, 92 yards and a touchdown recently.
Fant himself was held to one catch for six yards when these teams
played back in Week 5, but he’s playing substantially more
snaps now and the offense seems to be completely different so
don’t put too much stock into that. Fant is a borderline
starter at TE but he could make it into lineups just based on
perceived target volume alone given that the Broncos really only
have one established pass catcher on the roster right now.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: The Broncos running backs
have been struggling mightily as of late as they’ve had
a number of difficult matchups in a row. It’s not entirely
hopeless, however, as this week they will be facing a Los Angeles
Chargers defense that has given up the eighth-most fantasy points
to opposing running backs so far this season. In fact, the duo
of Phillip Lindsay (114 yards) and Royce Freeman (61 yards) smashed
this defense for a combined 175 rushing yards when these teams
played back in Week 5. With a rookie quarterback getting his first
NFL start behind center, look for the Broncos to rely heavily
on their duo of impressive young backs. That could mean 15-plus
touches for both players, but likely at least 25 touches between
the two of them, which should result in some solid fantasy production.
Lindsay is the better back to own still and should be considered
an RB2, but Freeman could be usable for those who are struggling
down the stretch and searching for a running back to fill in their
Flex spot.
Patriots @ Texans
- (Green) Line: NE -3.0 Total: 45.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: This may sound blasphemous, but Tom Brady
hasn't had a very good season. He beat up on some truly inferior
competition early and has looked anything but elite against the
decent teams on his schedule. That includes Week 12's messy affair
with Dallas where he completed less than half of his throws for
just 190 yards and a TD. After throwing seven TDs and no INTs
in his first three games, Brady has tossed eight touchdowns and
five picks in eight games since.
Outside of Julian Edelman, there aren't any difference makers
at receiver. The likes of Mohamed Sanu (ankle) and Phillip Dorsett
(concussion) have specific skill sets that can benefit an offense,
but neither will consistently move the needle for fantasy owners.
First-round pick N'Keal Harry caught his first touchdown pass
last week but didn't have another catch. Fellow rookie Jakobi
Myers (4-74-0) had a nice game, but he's unlikely to be a factor
when Sanu and Dorsett are active. It's a bit of a mess.
On paper, the Texans present an opportunity for Brady and company
to get back on track. The weather conditions should be nice, and
the banged-up Texans secondary has allowed 259.3 passing yards
per game, which is 25th in the NFL. I don't think Brady is a must-play
any longer, but I wouldn't shy away from him this week. Other
than Edelman, though, I don't think any of Brady's targets make
a reliable fantasy option.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: Opportunities haven't been all that plentiful
for Sony Michel this season with Rex Burkhead eating into his
snaps. The offense flowed through the Georgia product last week,
though, as he carried the ball 20 times for 85 yards. It was his
fourth game of 20 or more carries. In passing situations he defers
to James White, who has experienced a major downturn of his own:
over his last four games, White has just 11 receptions -- he had
30 in his previous four.
Houston is 17th against the run (108 yards per game) and has
had a little extra rest to heal up after dealing with Indy's Jonathan
Williams last Thursday night. It's obviously not the same group
minus J.J. Watt, but the Pats have been so inconsistent with their
RB usage it's hard to strongly endorse anyone in that backfield
as more than an RB3.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Deshaun Watson had some early-season MVP
buzz, but he's fallen by the wayside as Lamar Jackson and Russell
Wilson have seemingly made it a two-man race. Watson is still
a top guy, throwing for 298 yards on 19 completions last Thursday
to go along with two TDs. Watson was held in check the last time
he faced New England back in Week 1 of 2018 as he had only 176
yards passing.
Watson's fortunes improved markedly last week when Will Fuller
returned, giving the team the deep threat it so desperately needs.
In his first game back, Fuller caught seven passes for 140 yards
and opened things up for DeAndre Hopkins, who had six grabs, 94
yards and two scores. With Fuller back, Kenny Stills and Keke
Coutee were complete non-factors, and I don't expect that to change
as long as Fuller is healthy.
When you factor in talent and coaching, New England sits atop
the heap defensively. They rank second in the NFL in passing yards
allowed (158 per game) and allow a league-low 10.6 points per
game. Stephen Gilmore is getting a lot of press after holding
Amari Cooper without a catch last week, and he could shadow Hopkins,
depressing Nuk's value in the process. Still, even against a tough
Pats squad, I'm keeping Watson, Hopkins and Fuller in my lineup.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: Carlos Hyde continues to put together
a solid season, rushing 16 times for 67 yards against the Colts
in Week 12. He'll face the eighth-ranked run defense this week,
which is fresh on the heels of facing Ezekiel Elliott, who ran
for 86 yards on 21 carries. Hyde lacks Elliott's explosiveness,
but I'd still expect Hyde to get quite a few touches to keep pressure
off of Watson.
Duke Johnson's role has dried up a little, having caught two
or fewer passes in eight of his last 10 games. He's also yet to
tally 10 rushing attempts in any single game this year. Despite
a healthy per-touch average, Johnson isn't getting enough touches
to play in most formats.
Eagles at Dolphins
- (Katz) Line: PHI -9.5 Total: 45.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz is coming off his worst performance
of the season; his first game below double digit fantasy points.
It marked his fifth consecutive week finishing as QB17 or worse.
With that being said, he is impossible to fade against the hapless
Dolphins, who allow 22.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Wentz should be getting Alshon Jeffery back as he is practicing
in full this week. That would be a huge boost for Wentz, who dealt
with having Jordan Matthews as his top receiver last week.
The Dolphins allow 20 fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s
making Jeffery a must start. Zach Ertz is also a must start as
the depletion of the Eagles’ pass catching corps has boosted
Ertz’s target share back to 2018 levels. Ertz had only one
double digit target game over his first eight games. He has at
least 11 targets in three straight games. Ertz is apparently dealing
with a hamstring strain and did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday.
If Ertz can’t play, Dallas Goedert is a locked in top five
option and continues to see over 80% of the snaps. Even Nelson
Agholor would be in play as a deeper play if he plays through
a questionable tag.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Jordan Howard still has yet to be cleared
for contact, but that could happen at any moment. If Howard remains
out, Miles Sanders will continue to play nearly 90% of the snaps.
He is the only Eagles’ running back of consequence. The
touches have not correlated to production, but against the Dolphins,
in a game the Eagles project to see significantly positive game
script as 10 point favorites, Sanders should thrive. Only the
Bengals allow more rushing yards per game than the Dolphins’
148.2 at a 4.7 yards per carry clip. Sanders has also seen fairly
consistent targets out of the backfield with at least three targets
in all but two games this season. In the event Howard does get
cleared, he would be a locked in RB2 with touchdown upside and
relegate Sanders to just a flex.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick only has three QB1 performances
this season and although the Eagles began the season as a poor
pass defense, they have played much better of late. The Eagles
contained Russell Wilson last week and I don’t have high
hopes for there to be any Fitzmagic this week. DeVante Parker,
however, has become somewhat of a must start. He has finished
as a WR3 or better in eight straight contests. The Eagles allow
15.3 fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s, but a lot of that
came before Jalen Mills returned from injury. Parker will have
to deal with Mills and his 48.3% catch rate allowed, eighth in
the league. Mike Gesicki led all tight ends in routes run last
week, which is something to hang your hat on if you need a tight
end streamer. The Eagles allow just 6.8 fantasy points per game
to tight ends, but Gesicki could be the de facto WR2 with the
Dolphins dealing with injuries to their receivers. Allen Hurns
is not a fantasy option.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: It is noble of Brian Flores to stick with
Kalen Ballage as his starter, fully embracing the tank, but the
Bengals have built a near insurmountable lead on the first overall
pick. There’s not much to say about this rushing attack.
Patrick Laird is next in line for touches, but we’re talking
about a backup running back on the Dolphins. All these guys can
remain on waivers.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The season started terribly for Kirk Cousins,
but things have certainly gotten better as of late for the Vikings
quarterback. Cousins has thrown an impressive 16 touchdowns over
his past six starts, including three 300-yard games over that
stretch. What’s even more impressive is that he’s
done most of that without star wide receiver Adam Thielen. Certainly
Stefon Diggs has stepped up admirably, turning in four games of
120 or more receiving yards over this stretch, but there is an
outside chance that Thielen plays, which would definitely be a
boost for this offense. Diggs remains an low-end WR1 while Thielen
is out but he would join Thielen as a WR2 here in Week 13 if they’re
both active.
Cousins’ ascension back into the QB1 conversation has been
something to behold because his ranking still seems to be suppressed
throughout the industry. The Seahawks defense is nothing to be
worried about from a fantasy standpoint and Cousins has been producing
at an elite level as of late, so if your usual QB is struggling
or in a very difficult matchup, don’t be afraid to throw
Cousins into your lineup this week.
Other Minnesota pass catching weapons, including wide receiver
Olabisi Johnson as well as tight end Irv Smith, are probably players
that you’ll want to avoid for the most part this week. Kyle
Rudolph is another borderline startable tight end who is essentially
a touchdown-or-bust type of player, but he’s the position
is bad enough that he’s in the same tier with about a dozen
other tight ends.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: Dalvin Cook’s 26 rushing yards against
the Broncos this past week was his worst performance of the season,
but the fact that he added a touchdown on the ground along with
five catches for 31 yards is a great demonstration of why he is
one of the safest fantasy players in the league this season. Cook
has not yet finished below 15 PPR fantasy points in any game this
season and he’s score at least one touchdown in all but
two games.
The Vikings have been leaning much more heavily on their passing
game as of late, but that doesn’t necessarily mean something
bad for Cook. Cook is one of the more active bell cow running
backs in the league in the passing game and he’s caught
at least four passes in four straight contests for the Vikings.
Cook is dealing with a chest injury that limited him in practice
throughout the week but it appears as though he’ll be ready
to play on Sunday. Still, make sure you’re rostering Alexander
Mattison in your league if he’s available just in case you
end up having to make the last minute change.
Passing
Game Thoughts: While Russell Wilson continues to be mentioned
in the MVP conversation, and deservedly so, his fantasy production
has taken a significant dip over his past five games. Aside from
his huge Week 9 performance against the Buccaneers, Wilson has
failed to reach even 17 points in four of his past five games.
The biggest reason for that is a lack of touchdown scoring, which
can be fluky, but he’s also being hamstrung by his team’s
coaching staff, who only let him attempt 20 passes against the
Falcons in Week 8 and 25 passes against the Eagles this past week.
Wilson is still a great fantasy QB but he doesn’t have a
great matchup here in Week 13 against a Vikings defense that has
given up just five passing touchdowns over their past four games.
Of course, three of those games were against some pretty pathetic
quarterbacks, but it’s still worth considering that this
isn’t an excellent matchup for Wilson and the Seattle passing
game. Still, he’s a mid-level QB1 given his legs and his
propensity to produce when his team needs him most.
Tyler Lockett will look to get back into the WR1 conversation
after two weeks of poor performance. This came following back-to-back
100-yard performances in Weeks 8 and 9, however, so look at these
past two games as more of a blip on the radar, partially due to
his shin injury, rather than a trend. Lockett is still a low-end
WR1 with a high floor and plenty of upside.
Josh Gordon remains a player who probably shouldn’t even
be owned in most fantasy leagues as he rides the bench behind
rookie D.K. Metcalf. Metcalf has been a great find by the Seahawks
and he’s now seen at least five targets in six straight
games. Metcalf is always a big play and/or touchdown threat in
any game given Wilson’s desire to push the ball down the
field. Feel free to roll with him as your WR3 or even low-end
WR2 if you’re in need.
Tight end Jacob Hollister is another one of the “boom or
bust” tight ends, but he plays in an offense with a quarterback
who looks to the tight end position quite often in the red zone.
The Broncos targeted their tight ends 14 times this past week
against the Vikings, one of which results in a touchdown, so there’s
reason to believe that Hollister will find the end zone again
here in Week 13 after failing to do so in his most recent game.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Seattle drafting Rashaad
Penny in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft didn’t make
much sense at the time, but it made even less sense when the team
proceeded to give him practically no touches as a rookie, then
through most of his second season, in favor of former seventh-round
pick Chris Carson who was already on the roster when they drafted
Penny.
Things might finally be coming together for Penny, however, as
Carson took just eight carries this past week in the Seahawks’
eight-point victory over the Eagles. Carson’s previous season
low for carries was 15, but he sat on the sidelines while Penny
took 15 carries - by far his most of the 2019 season - in that
same game. Penny was also quite productive with his touches as
he converted those 14 carries for 129 yards and a touchdown. Of
course, the one touchdown run of 58 yards accounted for almost
half of his yards, but even if you take away that carry, he still
averaged well over five yards per carry on the day.
We don’t know that Penny has officially taken over as the
lead back in Seattle, but it’s worth noting that head coach
Pete Carroll told reporters that the team plans on seeing “if
we can get more out of [Penny]” going forward.
A full on committee is the worst case scenario for this backfield
and it would likely mean that the duo looks similar to the Broncos’
backfield of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, with neither player
being a real RB1 and both having the capability of producing as
an RB2 on a given week.
For now, we’ll move Carson down to being an RB2 in this
difficult matchup against the Vikings, while we are a little more
cautious with Penny, ranking him as a Flex play.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Mitchell Trubisky delivered his best game
of the 2019 season with 278 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns
in the Bears’ 19-14 win against the Giants. The much-maligned
third-year pro overcame a slow start to complete 25 of 41 passes
while adding 18 rushing yards and his first rushing touchdown
of the season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Lions will likely roll out Jeff Driskel
(hamstring) for a fourth start with Matthew Stafford recovering
from a back injury. With the Lions all but out of playoff contention,
it makes little sense to rush back Stafford and make his already
delicate back injury worse.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Josh Allen has at least 16 fantasy points
in every game this season where he didn’t face the Patriots.
Buoyed by a near touchdown’s worth of rushing per game,
Allen is one of the safest quarterbacks in fantasy. With that
being said, the Bills have had one of the easiest schedules thus
far. The Cowboys have forced the fewest interceptions with just
four, but they’ve also allowed just 12 passing touchdowns
and only allow 213.6 passing yards per game. On the road on a
short week could be tricky. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: Dak Prescott finished as a QB2 last week
for just the second time all season. The Bills have been a no
fly zone, allowing just 12.4 fantasy points per game to opposing
quarterbacks. Prescott gets to go from the top passing defense
to the third best passing defense. With that being said, he should
still succeed this week. As referenced above, the Bills haven’t
exactly faced many good quarterbacks. Prescott is, by far, the
best quarterback the Bills have seen. Expect Prescott to raise
the Bills’ 184.3 passing yards against average as well as
add to their mere seven touchdowns allowed. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: Last week was a vintage Drew Brees game
as he completed a high percentage of his throws, topped 300 yards
and threw for multiple scores; and he also led a game-winning
drive as time expired. Ho hum. It was anything but easy three
weeks ago when the Saints laid an egg against the Falcons at home.
Brees' final line (32 completions for 287 yards) doesn't do justice
to what was a rough afternoon as the Saints failed to reach the
end zone in a humbling 27-9 loss.
Passing
Game Thoughts: At home against a team that'd lost five
of six and carried one of the league's worst secondaries into
town, Matt Ryan completed just half of his 46 passes for 271 yards,
0 TDs and an INT. After throwing for multiple scores in five of
six games to open the 2019 campaign, Ryan has accomplished that
feat just once in the last four. That came against these same
Saints in Week 10, though it was attached to just 182 passing
yards, his lowest full-game output of the year.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Whatever the future may hold for Dwayne
Haskins, the 15th overall pick in this year's draft, in the present
he looks hopelessly overmatched. In three starts he has completed
47 of 86 passes for 514 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs. As bad as those
numbers look, the reality is probably worse as easily his best
statistical game came in Week 11 against the Jets when the 'Skins
trailed by 31 in the fourth quarter. If I were to rank all 32
starting QBs for Week 13, Haskins might be 33rd.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Coming off a poor showing in a 26-point
home loss to Atlanta, Kyle Allen held his own against Drew Brees
in Week 12, completing 23 of 36 passes for 256 yards and 3 TDs.
Allen's up-and-down performances from one week to the next is
a little reminiscent of Ryan Fitzpatrick, making him the same
kind of a risky play with a potentially high ceiling and a very
low floor. Despite Carolina being heavily favored, this doesn't
read like a great matchup for Allen, who is more of a QB2.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It may surprise many readers to learn
that only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have more fantasy points
at the quarterback position over the past three games than Sam
Darnold. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Bengals benched Andy Dalton in favor
of rookie Ryan Finley after their Week 9 bye with the hope of
giving the rook a few games to prove he is the quarterback of
the future. With the Bengals a near-lock for the first overall
pick and a chance to draft Tua or Joe Barrow, it made sense at
the time to see if Finley had much to offer.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Since making the switch to Ryan Tannehill,
the Titans have won four of five and are right back in the thick
of the playoff chase. Tannehill has been highly effective, throwing
for multiple scores in each of those four wins. He's also shown
some shiftiness as a runner, amassing 115 yards and three TDs
on the ground in the past three games. The yardage hasn't been
stellar, nor has the number of completions, which adds a lot of
volatility to Tennessee's passing game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In his two games since returning from
a knee injury, Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 148 and 129 yards,
respectively. Whether that's scheme, a lack of healthy options
outside or the lingering effects of the injury is unknown, but
it has undone a lot of good will he'd cultivated with fantasy
owners. During his first meeting with the Titans, Brissett passed
for just 146 yards but supplemented that with a trio of touchdowns
strikes. He's definitely someone to leave on your bench for the
rematch.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In what could be a Super Bowl preview
between arguably the two best teams in their respective conferences,
the 10-1 San Francisco head to Baltimore to take on the 9-2 Ravens.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Lamar Jackson experience took Hollywood
by storm on Sunday Night Football, with Jackson throwing five
touchdowns for the second time this season. Jackson continues
to be the cheat code in fantasy football, giving his owners a
massive leg up over the competition. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: With the Falcons riding high after back-to-back
road wins within the division, Jameis Winston looked to have his
work cut out for him. As it turned out, last Sunday proved to
be light work for Winston, who threw for 313 yards on just 18
completions with three TDs and the obligatory two interceptions.
In a year where many of the expected studs have fallen flat (Jared
Goff, Carson Wentz, even Tom Brady), Winston has become a solid
QB1 where INTs are simply the cost of doing business.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Much was made of Jacksonville's decision
between Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew, but given how porous the
defense has been recently it probably hasn't mattered. Foles was
32 of 48 for 272 yards in Week 12, giving him 95 passes in two
games, but had no TDs. While this isn't the direction Doug Marrone
wants to go with his offense, playing from behind has forced his
hand, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see more of the same in
Week 13.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The bad news is Aaron Rodgers has devolved
into nothing more than a streamer based on matchup. The good news
is matchups don’t get much better than the Giants. The Giants
allow 22 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Rodgers has
been the epitome of all or nothing this season. He has three top
three finishes and six finishes outside the top 20. Rodgers is
far more likely to be top three this week. The Giants allow 21.2
fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s. Davante Adams should
smash this week. As for the Packers’ WR2, there is no one.
Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, and
Jake Kumerow all rotate making them tough to roster in fantasy.
Jimmy Graham pays is a threat to catch a random touchdown but
you should not be starting him.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Daniel Jones continues to look clueless
in the pocket. He’s taken an absurd 23 sacks while committing
11 fumbles over his last five games. Yet, somehow, he has an overall
QB1 and QB3 fantasy performance during that span. Jones’
inability to help the Giants win games does not keep him from
being fantasy viable. The Packers are touchdown favorites and
if they get out to an early lead, we could see Jones eclipse 40
pass attempts again. Jones is a near lock to turn it over a couple
times, but he can overcome that with his stable rushing floor.
Jones has six games of at least 20 rushing yards.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Baker Mayfield entered the 2019 season
on the shortlist of breakout quarterbacks after points a record-setting
27 passing touchdowns as a rookie in 2018. The addition of Odell
Beckham Jr. and Kareem Hunt to an already stacked skill-position
set had some people thinking Mayfield could be this year’s
Patrick Mahomes.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Devlin Hodges takes over the starting
role at quarterback from the shell-shocked and underperforming
Mason Rudolph. Only the Broncos and Redskins have fewer fantasy
points this season generated at the quarterback position, and
Hodges clearly gave the team a spark last week against the Bengals
when he relieved Rudolph in the second half.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Rams’ offensive struggles continued
this past week as they were humiliated in front of a national
audience on Monday Night Football, with Jared Goff failing to
throw a touchdown pass for his third straight game. Goff has also
failed to exceed 250 passing yards in this recent stretch and
has thrown a total of five interceptions. While these struggles
are certainly something that fantasy owners need to be concerned
about as the once-dominant Rams offense seems to be a mere shell
of its former self this season, it’s also worth considering
that the Rams have had a really difficult stretch of opponents
recently. The Pittsburgh pass defense has been playing substantially
better since they added Minkah Fitzpatrick and the Bears and Ravens
are among the best pass defenses in football. So while it’s
easy to just say “don’t trust the Rams,” there’s
certainly also reason to be a bit optimistic that things might
turn around this week as the Rams head on the road to face one
of the league’s worst pass defenses, the Arizona Cardinals.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray went through
a stretch where he failed to throw a touchdown in four of five
games, but seems to be hitting his stride down the stretch as
he’s given his fantasy owners three straight excellent fantasy
performances. Murray is using his legs to prop up his fantasy
production, but he’s also producing as a passer, having
thrown seven touchdown passes over his past three games. Murray’s
upside, along with his high floor due to his rushing ability,
makes him a mid-range QB1 this week. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was supposed to be at least a decent
matchup in Week 12 for Derek Carr and the Oakland passing game,
but Raiders could not have disappointed more than they did. Carr
threw for just 127 yards in a blowout loss to the Jets while failing
to throw a single touchdown pass. He also threw an interception,
giving him his worst fantasy day of the season. Obviously this
performance was awful and it’s often difficult to forgive
players who just burned you, but this week he does get to face
a Kansas City defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in the league
in fantasy points given up to opposing quarterbacks. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Chiefs avoided a huge blow as it appears
that Tyreek Hill will be back on the field after being knocked
out of Kansas City’s Week 11 game with a hamstring injury.
Hill took the bye week to get healthy and appears to be back to
at least close to full speed as he’ll face Raiders defense
that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide
receivers. You wouldn’t be benching Hill anyway, but this
is a particularly great matchup for him and he should be considered
a high-end WR1. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: With just four touchdown passes and eight
interceptions over his past four games, it’s now gotten
to the point that we can no longer trust Philip Rivers to be a
QB1 for fantasy purposes. He was always surviving on borrowed
time given his lack of mobility in this changed league, but Rivers’
passing ability seems to be significantly worse than what we’ve
seen from him in the past.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With second round draft pick Drew Lock
stepping in, the Broncos will now be turning to their third quarterback
this season, with their hopes set on Lock being their future franchise
QB. The coaching staff hasn’t exactly shown much confidence
in the young passer so far, but it’d be hard for him to
be much worse than what the team has been dealing with.
Passing
Game Thoughts: This may sound blasphemous, but Tom Brady
hasn't had a very good season. He beat up on some truly inferior
competition early and has looked anything but elite against the
decent teams on his schedule. That includes Week 12's messy affair
with Dallas where he completed less than half of his throws for
just 190 yards and a TD. After throwing seven TDs and no INTs
in his first three games, Brady has tossed eight touchdowns and
five picks in eight games since.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Deshaun Watson had some early-season MVP
buzz, but he's fallen by the wayside as Lamar Jackson and Russell
Wilson have seemingly made it a two-man race. Watson is still
a top guy, throwing for 298 yards on 19 completions last Thursday
to go along with two TDs. Watson was held in check the last time
he faced New England back in Week 1 of 2018 as he had only 176
yards passing.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz is coming off his worst performance
of the season; his first game below double digit fantasy points.
It marked his fifth consecutive week finishing as QB17 or worse.
With that being said, he is impossible to fade against the hapless
Dolphins, who allow 22.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Wentz should be getting Alshon Jeffery back as he is practicing
in full this week. That would be a huge boost for Wentz, who dealt
with having Jordan Matthews as his top receiver last week. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick only has three QB1 performances
this season and although the Eagles began the season as a poor
pass defense, they have played much better of late. The Eagles
contained Russell Wilson last week and I don’t have high
hopes for there to be any Fitzmagic this week. DeVante Parker,
however, has become somewhat of a must start. He has finished
as a WR3 or better in eight straight contests. The Eagles allow
15.3 fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s, but a lot of that
came before Jalen Mills returned from injury. Parker will have
to deal with Mills and his 48.3% catch rate allowed, eighth in
the league. Mike Gesicki led all tight ends in routes run last
week, which is something to hang your hat on if you need a tight
end streamer. The Eagles allow just 6.8 fantasy points per game
to tight ends, but Gesicki could be the de facto WR2 with the
Dolphins dealing with injuries to their receivers. Allen Hurns
is not a fantasy option. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: The season started terribly for Kirk Cousins,
but things have certainly gotten better as of late for the Vikings
quarterback. Cousins has thrown an impressive 16 touchdowns over
his past six starts, including three 300-yard games over that
stretch. What’s even more impressive is that he’s
done most of that without star wide receiver Adam Thielen. Certainly
Stefon Diggs has stepped up admirably, turning in four games of
120 or more receiving yards over this stretch, but there is an
outside chance that Thielen plays, which would definitely be a
boost for this offense. Diggs remains an low-end WR1 while Thielen
is out but he would join Thielen as a WR2 here in Week 13 if they’re
both active.
Passing
Game Thoughts: While Russell Wilson continues to be mentioned
in the MVP conversation, and deservedly so, his fantasy production
has taken a significant dip over his past five games. Aside from
his huge Week 9 performance against the Buccaneers, Wilson has
failed to reach even 17 points in four of his past five games.
The biggest reason for that is a lack of touchdown scoring, which
can be fluky, but he’s also being hamstrung by his team’s
coaching staff, who only let him attempt 20 passes against the
Falcons in Week 8 and 25 passes against the Eagles this past week.
