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Top 200 Big Board, Half-PPR: Version 1.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/19/22 |
PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men are asked to work in harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men are being asked to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". That is not a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst that does not consider it at all. I like to believe that even if readers believe my process is flawed for whatever reason, they can appreciate how much thought has been put into that opinion.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern.

Over the next couple of days, I will release my first Big Board for FFPC leagues. In the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason, I will rank at least 225 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Half-Point PPR format:

 Half-Point Big Board - Top 200
Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 RB1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 9.12
2 RB2 Jonathan Taylor IND 7.38
3 RB3 Dalvin Cook MIN 6.41
4 WR1 Justin Jefferson MIN 6.09
5 RB4 Joe Mixon CIN 6.02
6 RB5 Saquon Barkley NYG 5.99
7 RB6 D'Andre Swift DET 5.45
8 RB7 Austin Ekeler LAC 4.77
9 WR2 Cooper Kupp LAR 4.40
10 RB8 Aaron Jones GB 3.71
11 RB9 Najee Harris PIT 3.58
12 WR3 CeeDee Lamb DAL 3.20
13 RB10 Derrick Henry TEN 3.06
14 WR4 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 2.76
15 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 2.57
16 WR5 Davante Adams LV 2.18
17 RB11 Nick Chubb CLE 2.17
18 RB12 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 2.12
19 RB13 Breece Hall NYJ 1.93
20 RB14 Javonte Williams DEN 1.86
21 RB15 Travis Etienne JAC 1.69
22 QB1 Josh Allen BUF 1.59
23 RB16 Leonard Fournette TB 1.50
24 RB17 Alvin Kamara NO 1.36
25 WR6 Stefon Diggs BUF 1.27
26 TE2 Kyle Pitts ATL 1.08
27 WR7 Tee Higgins CIN 0.41
28 WR8 Tyreek Hill MIA 0.39
29 WR9 Mike Evans TB 0.37
30 WR10 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 0.35
31 TE3 Darren Waller LV 0.30
32 RB18 J.K. Dobbins BAL 0.22
33 RB19 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC 0.05
34 WR11 Courtland Sutton DEN -0.04
35 TE4 Mark Andrews BAL -0.11
36 WR12 A.J. Brown PHI -0.17
37 RB20 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL -0.19
38 WR13 Allen Robinson LAR -0.22
39 RB21 AJ Dillon GB -0.39
40 RB22 Elijah Mitchell SF -0.40
41 RB23 David Montgomery CHI -0.41
42 TE5 George Kittle SF -0.63
43 WR14 Deebo Samuel SF -0.67
44 WR15 Keenan Allen LAC -0.90
45 WR16 Terry McLaurin WAS -0.92
46 QB2 Justin Herbert LAC -1.06
47 RB24 Damien Harris NE -1.12
48 WR17 Jaylen Waddle MIA -1.15
49 WR18 Mike Williams LAC -1.21
50 TE6 T.J. Hockenson DET -1.24
51 QB3 Patrick Mahomes KC -1.32
52 WR19 D.J. Moore CAR -1.35
53 WR20 Diontae Johnson PIT -1.40
54 RB25 Chase Edmonds MIA -1.40
55 WR21 Jerry Jeudy DEN -1.47
56 RB26 Rhamondre Stevenson NE -1.48
57 WR22 Brandin Cooks HOU -1.49
58 QB4 Jalen Hurts PHI -1.70
59 QB5 Lamar Jackson BAL -1.73
60 WR23 DK Metcalf SEA -1.78
61 WR24 Elijah Moore NYJ -1.86
62 RB27 Miles Sanders PHI -1.86
63 RB28 Tony Pollard DAL -1.87
64 QB6 Kyler Murray ARI -1.92
65 RB29 James Conner ARI -1.95
66 TE7 Dallas Goedert PHI -2.04
67 RB30 Josh Jacobs LV -2.12
68 WR25 Michael Thomas NO -2.12
69 RB31 Melvin Gordon DEN -2.26
70 WR26 Hunter Renfrow LV -2.28
71 WR27 Marquise Brown ARI -2.33
72 RB32 Antonio Gibson WAS -2.38
73 WR28 Rashod Bateman BAL -2.40
74 WR29 DeVonta Smith PHI -2.50
75 QB7 Dak Prescott DAL -2.56
76 WR30 Darnell Mooney CHI -2.56
77 QB8 Tom Brady TB -2.62
78 WR31 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET -2.62
79 QB9 Russell Wilson DEN -2.67
80 RB33 Kareem Hunt CLE -2.70
81 QB10 Trey Lance SF -2.74
82 WR32 Gabriel Davis BUF -2.75
83 RB34 James Cook BUF -2.84
84 QB11 Joe Burrow CIN -2.84
85 WR33 Allen Lazard GB -2.88
86 TE8 Zach Ertz ARI -2.88
87 RB35 Nyheim Hines IND -2.97
88 TE9 Albert Okwuegbunam DEN -3.00
89 WR34 Adam Thielen MIN -3.08
90 QB12 Matthew Stafford LAR -3.10
91 WR35 Kadarius Toney NYG -3.23
92 TE10 Dalton Schultz DAL -3.27
93 WR36 Russell Gage TB -3.29
94 TE11 Dawson Knox BUF -3.33
95 WR37 Brandon Aiyuk SF -3.35
96 QB13 Aaron Rodgers GB -3.36
97 RB36 Tyler Allgeier ATL -3.46
98 TE12 Irv Smith MIN -3.49
99 TE13 Cole Kmet CHI -3.56
100 RB37 Cam Akers LAR -3.66
101 TE14 Pat Freiermuth PIT -3.73
102 RB38 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -3.79
103 WR38 Drake London ATL -3.84
104 WR39 Tyler Boyd CIN -3.85
105 WR40 Chris Godwin TB -3.85
106 WR41 Tyler Lockett SEA -3.86
107 TE15 Tyler Higbee LAR -3.90
108 WR42 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC -3.94
109 QB14 Kirk Cousins MIN -3.96
110 TE16 Austin Hooper TEN -3.98
111 RB39 Devin Singletary BUF -4.00
112 WR43 Christian Kirk JAC -4.01
113 RB40 Dameon Pierce HOU -4.03
114 RB41 James Robinson JAC -4.06
115 TE17 David Njoku CLE -4.09
116 RB42 Kenneth Walker SEA -4.16
117 WR44 Marvin Jones JAC -4.16
118 TE18 Noah Fant SEA -4.22
119 TE19 Evan Engram JAC -4.23
120 WR45 DeVante Parker NE -4.34
121 WR46 Chris Olave NO -4.37
122 WR47 Robert Woods TEN -4.42
123 WR48 Treylon Burks TEN -4.51
124 TE20 Brevin Jordan HOU -4.56
125 RB43 Isaiah Spiller LAC -4.57
126 WR49 DeAndre Hopkins ARI -4.60
127 WR50 Skyy Moore KC -4.63
128 WR51 Amari Cooper CLE -4.66
129 WR52 Nico Collins HOU -4.75
130 WR53 Garrett Wilson NYJ -4.76
131 RB44 Michael Carter NYJ -4.77
132 RB45 Jamaal Williams DET -4.82
133 RB46 Rachaad White TB -4.83
134 TE21 Gerald Everett LAC -4.88
135 WR54 Chase Claypool PIT -4.97
136 TE22 Hunter Henry NE -5.25
137 QB15 Derek Carr LV -5.30
138 RB47 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -5.43
139 WR55 Rondale Moore ARI -5.55
140 QB16 Trevor Lawrence JAC -5.68
141 WR56 Jahan Dotson WAS -5.70
142 WR57 Romeo Doubs GB -5.85
143 QB17 Daniel Jones NYG -5.89
144 TE23 Mike Gesicki MIA -5.93
145 TE24 Tyler Conklin NYJ -5.94
146 RB48 J.D. McKissic WAS -5.98
147 WR58 K.J. Osborn MIN -6.10
148 WR59 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -6.13
149 RB49 Darrell Henderson LAR -6.14
150 QB18 Justin Fields CHI -6.14
151 RB50 Khalil Herbert CHI -6.15
152 WR60 D.J. Chark DET -6.17
153 QB19 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -6.17
154 RB51 Isiah Pacheco KC -6.18
155 QB20 Matt Ryan IND -6.18
156 TE25 Jonnu Smith NE -6.19
157 WR61 Julio Jones TB -6.28
158 WR62 Jarvis Landry NO -6.29
159 WR63 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC -6.35
160 WR64 Isaiah McKenzie BUF -6.37
161 WR65 George Pickens PIT -6.40
162 WR66 Jakobi Meyers NE -6.44
163 RB52 Gus Edwards BAL -6.47
164 WR67 Kendrick Bourne NE -6.50
165 RB53 Alexander Mattison MIN -6.55
166 RB54 Chris Evans CIN -6.55
167 QB21 Ryan Tannehill TEN -6.60
168 RB55 Rashaad Penny SEA -6.67
169 QB22 Mitchell Trubisky PIT -6.67
170 WR68 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE -6.70
171 WR69 Josh Palmer LAC -6.71
172 WR70 Robbie Anderson CAR -6.76
173 RB56 D'Onta Foreman CAR -6.82
174 WR71 Curtis Samuel WAS -6.82
175 QB23 Jameis Winston NO -6.85
176 RB57 Eno Benjamin ARI -7.00
177 WR72 Parris Campbell IND -7.01
178 QB24 Mac Jones NE -7.14
179 RB58 Ameer Abdullah LV -7.33
180 WR73 Van Jefferson LAR -7.44
181 WR74 Cedrick Wilson MIA -7.46
182 WR75 Kenny Golladay NYG -7.50
183 WR76 Velus Jones Jr. CHI -7.59
184 RB59 Sony Michel MIA -7.69
185 RB60 Zamir White LV -7.70
186 RB61 Raheem Mostert MIA -7.72
187 RB62 Hassan Haskins TEN -7.92
188 WR77 Mecole Hardman KC -7.98
189 WR78 Jalen Tolbert DAL -8.13
190 WR79 Alec Pierce IND -8.20
191 RB63 Mark Ingram NO -8.49
192 WR80 Christian Watson GB -8.76
193 WR81 Michael Gallup DAL -8.77
194 WR82 Zay Jones JAC -8.81
195 WR83 Randall Cobb GB -8.90
196 WR84 Corey Davis NYJ -9.22
197 WR85 Jameson Williams DET -9.42
198 WR86 Sammy Watkins GB -10.65
199 WR87 KJ Hamler DEN -10.72
200 WR88 Kyle Phillips TEN -10.99


PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.