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Top 200 Big Board, Superflex PPR: Version 1.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/16/22 |
PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men are asked to work in harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men are being asked to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". That is not a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst that does not consider it at all. I like to believe that even if readers believe my process is flawed for whatever reason, they can appreciate how much thought has been put into that opinion.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern.

Over the next two weeks, I will release my first Big Boards for Half-PPR and standard leagues as well as the FFPC Big Boards. In the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason, I will rank at least 200 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

 Superflex Big Board - Top 200
Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 RB1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 9.9
2 QB1 Josh Allen BUF 8.8
3 RB2 Jonathan Taylor IND 7.6
4 WR1 Justin Jefferson MIN 7.3
5 RB3 Dalvin Cook MIN 6.9
6 RB4 D'Andre Swift DET 6.5
7 RB5 Saquon Barkley NYG 6.5
8 QB2 Justin Herbert LAC 6.2
9 QB3 Patrick Mahomes KC 5.9
10 QB4 Jalen Hurts PHI 5.7
11 QB5 Lamar Jackson BAL 5.5
12 WR2 Cooper Kupp LAR 5.4
13 QB6 Kyler Murray ARI 5.2
14 RB6 Austin Ekeler LAC 5.1
15 RB7 Joe Mixon CIN 5.0
16 QB7 Tom Brady TB 4.6
17 WR3 CeeDee Lamb DAL 4.6
18 QB8 Russell Wilson DEN 4.6
19 QB9 Trey Lance SF 4.6
20 QB10 Dak Prescott DAL 4.5
21 QB11 Joe Burrow CIN 4.5
22 RB8 Aaron Jones GB 4.0
23 QB12 Matthew Stafford LAR 4.0
24 QB13 Aaron Rodgers GB 4.0
25 RB9 Najee Harris PIT 3.4
26 QB14 Kirk Cousins MIN 3.3
27 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 3.3
28 RB10 Derrick Henry TEN 3.0
29 WR4 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 2.9
30 WR5 Davante Adams LV 2.7
31 QB15 Derek Carr LV 1.9
32 WR6 Stefon Diggs BUF 1.9
33 QB16 Trevor Lawrence JAC 1.6
34 RB11 Nick Chubb CLE 1.5
35 RB12 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 1.4
36 TE2 Kyle Pitts ATL 1.4
37 WR7 Tyreek Hill MIA 1.4
38 QB17 Daniel Jones NYG 1.4
39 RB13 Breece Hall NYJ 1.3
40 RB14 Travis Etienne JAC 1.2
41 RB15 Alvin Kamara NO 1.2
42 RB16 Javonte Williams DEN 1.2
43 QB18 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 1.1
44 QB19 Justin Fields CHI 1.0
45 QB20 Matt Ryan IND 1.0
46 WR8 Mike Evans TB 0.7
47 WR9 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 0.6
48 WR10 Tee Higgins CIN 0.5
49 RB17 Leonard Fournette TB 0.5
50 QB21 Ryan Tannehill TEN 0.5
51 QB22 Mitchell Trubisky PIT 0.4
52 TE3 Mark Andrews BAL 0.4
53 QB23 Mac Jones NE 0.2
54 QB24 Jameis Winston NO 0.0
55 TE4 Darren Waller LV 0.0
56 WR11 Courtland Sutton DEN 0.0
57 WR12 A.J. Brown PHI 0.0
58 WR13 Keenan Allen LAC -0.2
59 WR14 Deebo Samuel SF -0.2
60 RB18 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC -0.3
61 QB25 Carson Wentz WAS -0.3
62 WR15 Allen Robinson LAR -0.3
63 WR16 Diontae Johnson PIT -0.4
64 TE5 George Kittle SF -0.4
65 RB19 J.K. Dobbins BAL -0.6
66 WR17 D.J. Moore CAR -0.6
67 WR18 Jaylen Waddle MIA -0.7
68 WR19 Brandin Cooks HOU -0.8
69 RB20 Elijah Mitchell SF -1.0
70 WR20 Terry McLaurin WAS -1.0
71 RB21 James Conner ARI -1.0
72 RB22 David Montgomery CHI -1.1
73 TE6 T.J. Hockenson DET -1.2
74 QB26 Baker Mayfield CAR -1.2
75 RB23 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL -1.3
76 WR21 Mike Williams LAC -1.5
77 WR22 Michael Thomas NO -1.5
78 QB27 Zach Wilson NYJ -1.7
79 WR23 DK Metcalf SEA -1.8
80 WR24 Elijah Moore NYJ -1.8
81 WR25 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET -1.8
82 WR26 Jerry Jeudy DEN -1.8
83 QB28 Marcus Mariota ATL -1.9
84 WR27 Hunter Renfrow LV -2.0
85 QB29 Jared Goff DET -2.1
86 RB24 AJ Dillon GB -2.1
87 RB25 Cam Akers LAR -2.4
88 RB26 Chase Edmonds MIA -2.4
89 TE7 Dallas Goedert PHI -2.5
90 WR28 Rashod Bateman BAL -2.5
91 WR29 Kadarius Toney NYG -2.5
92 WR30 DeVonta Smith PHI -2.5
93 RB27 Damien Harris NE -2.5
94 RB28 Antonio Gibson WAS -2.5
95 RB29 Rhamondre Stevenson NE -2.7
96 WR31 Marquise Brown ARI -2.7
97 RB30 Melvin Gordon DEN -2.8
98 RB31 Tony Pollard DAL -2.8
99 TE8 Zach Ertz ARI -2.9
100 WR32 Darnell Mooney CHI -3.1
101 WR33 Chris Godwin TB -3.1
102 QB30 Deshaun Watson CLE -3.1
103 WR34 Russell Gage TB -3.2
104 TE9 Albert Okwuegbunam DEN -3.2
105 RB32 Miles Sanders PHI -3.3
106 WR35 Adam Thielen MIN -3.3
107 WR36 Gabriel Davis BUF -3.4
108 RB33 James Cook BUF -3.4
109 WR37 Brandon Aiyuk SF -3.4
110 WR38 DeAndre Hopkins ARI -3.4
111 RB34 Nyheim Hines IND -3.5
112 RB35 Kareem Hunt CLE -3.5
113 WR39 Christian Kirk JAC -3.6
114 TE10 Dalton Schultz DAL -3.7
115 WR40 Drake London ATL -3.7
116 QB31 Davis Mills HOU -3.8
117 TE11 Pat Freiermuth PIT -3.9
118 WR41 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC -3.9
119 WR42 Tyler Lockett SEA -3.9
120 TE12 Dawson Knox BUF -3.9
121 WR43 Allen Lazard GB -3.9
122 TE13 Irv Smith MIN -4.0
123 TE14 Cole Kmet CHI -4.0
124 WR44 Tyler Boyd CIN -4.0
125 RB36 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -4.0
126 WR45 Marvin Jones JAC -4.1
127 RB37 Josh Jacobs LV -4.2
128 TE15 Noah Fant SEA -4.2
129 WR46 Robert Woods TEN -4.2
130 WR47 Treylon Burks TEN -4.3
131 TE16 Evan Engram JAC -4.4
132 RB38 Isaiah Spiller LAC -4.4
133 TE17 David Njoku CLE -4.4
134 TE18 Tyler Higbee LAR -4.5
135 WR48 Romeo Doubs GB -4.5
136 WR49 Chris Olave NO -4.5
137 WR50 Garrett Wilson NYJ -4.6
138 RB39 Tyler Allgeier ATL -4.6
139 WR51 Chase Claypool PIT -4.7
140 RB40 James Robinson JAC -4.8
141 RB41 Rachaad White TB -4.8
142 TE19 Brevin Jordan HOU -4.9
143 WR52 DeVante Parker NE -4.9
144 WR53 Amari Cooper CLE -4.9
145 QB32 Geno Smith SEA -5.0
146 WR54 Rondale Moore ARI -5.1
147 WR55 Julio Jones TB -5.1
148 RB42 Kenneth Walker SEA -5.2
149 TE20 Austin Hooper TEN -5.2
150 WR56 Nico Collins HOU -5.3
151 RB43 Michael Carter NYJ -5.4
152 RB44 Devin Singletary BUF -5.4
153 TE21 Gerald Everett LAC -5.4
154 WR57 Skyy Moore KC -5.4
155 TE22 Hunter Henry NE -5.6
156 RB45 Jamaal Williams DET -5.6
157 WR58 Isaiah McKenzie BUF -5.7
158 WR59 Jahan Dotson WAS -6.1
159 RB46 Dameon Pierce HOU -6.1
160 WR60 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -6.4
161 WR61 Jakobi Meyers NE -6.9
162 WR62 Parris Campbell IND -7.0
163 WR63 Jarvis Landry NO -7.0
164 WR64 K.J. Osborn MIN -7.0
165 RB47 J.D. McKissic WAS -7.0
166 WR65 George Pickens PIT -7.1
167 WR66 D.J. Chark DET -7.1
168 WR67 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC -7.2
169 WR68 Kendrick Bourne NE -7.3
170 WR69 Curtis Samuel WAS -7.3
171 RB48 Darrell Henderson LAR -7.3
172 WR70 Josh Palmer LAC -7.4
173 RB49 Khalil Herbert CHI -7.4
174 WR71 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE -7.5
175 WR72 Jameson Williams DET -7.5
176 RB50 Rashaad Penny SEA -7.5
177 RB51 Eno Benjamin ARI -7.6
178 RB52 Alexander Mattison MIN -7.6
179 WR73 Robbie Anderson CAR -7.7
180 RB53 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -7.8
181 RB54 Chris Evans CIN -7.9
182 RB55 D'Onta Foreman CAR -8.3
183 RB56 Kenyan Drake LV -8.3
184 RB57 Isiah Pacheco KC -8.3
185 RB58 Raheem Mostert MIA -8.3
186 WR74 Velus Jones Jr. CHI -8.3
187 WR75 Cedrick Wilson MIA -8.4
188 RB59 Sony Michel MIA -8.5
189 RB60 Gus Edwards BAL -8.5
190 WR76 Mecole Hardman KC -8.7
191 WR77 Van Jefferson LAR -8.7
192 RB61 Zamir White LV -8.8
193 WR78 Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR -9.1
194 WR79 Alec Pierce IND -9.2
195 WR80 Jalen Tolbert DAL -9.5
196 WR81 Byron Pringle CHI -9.6
197 WR82 Zay Jones JAC -9.6
198 RB62 Hassan Haskins TEN -9.7
199 WR83 Christian Watson GB -9.8
200 WR84 Corey Davis NYJ -9.8


PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.