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Top 175 Big Board, PPR: Version 1.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/12/20 |
PPR | Half-Point PPR | Non-PPR

Before I begin, I apologize for the bare-bones Big Board this week. I am healthy and doing fine, but events in recent days have made it virtually impossible for me to spend any time doing the research necessary to provide content this week. Thanks for understanding. I will discuss the matters at a later time.

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Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men are being asked to work in harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men are being asked to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards in this day and age - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it doesn't mean we shouldn't try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make 7,500 "decisions". This is not meant to be a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. I like to think that even if readers believe my logic is flawed for whatever reason, they can count on the fact that much thought has been put into that opinion.

How much thought, you ask?

For example, Michael Gallup lined up on the left side of the formation 456 times, on the right side 292 times and in the slot 96 times last year. Since the majority of defensive coordinators tend to have their cornerbacks stick to one side as opposed to following a particular receiver, Gallup's ability to match up and defeat each of the defensive backs in those spots should/needs to be considered. I do that for each player who projects to stand inside the top three of his team's depth chart, and all of that information is factored into my projections. While how often Gallup lines up in a certain spot will inevitably be different from last year, it's unlikely his role as Dallas' "X" receiver will change under second-year OC Kellen Moore.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and our job as analysts is identifying when stocks may be poised for an increase or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy owners/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. This is the approach I have taken for more than 10 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions that have been featured in this space over the last two weeks. As always, the matchups are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern.

Over the next two weeks, I will release my first Big Boards for 0.5 PPR and standard leagues as well as The Fantasy Championship (TFC) and FFPC Big Boards. In the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason, I will rank at least 200 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

 PPR Big Board - Top 175
Rank Pos Player Tm Age SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 RB Christian McCaffrey CAR 24 13.2
2 RB Saquon Barkley NYG 23 10.6
3 RB Alvin Kamara NO 25 10.5
4 RB Dalvin Cook MIN 25 10
5 RB Miles Sanders PHI 23 8.7
6 RB Ezekiel Elliott DAL 25 6.7
7 WR Davante Adams GB 27 6.5
8 WR Michael Thomas NO 27 6.5
9 RB Josh Jacobs LV 22 5.3
10 WR Julio Jones ATL 31 5.2
11 RB Joe Mixon CIN 24 4.8
12 RB Kenyan Drake ARI 26 4.7
13 RB Derrick Henry TEN 26 4.6
14 RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC 21 4.6
15 RB Austin Ekeler LAC 25 4.6
16 TE Travis Kelce KC 30 4.2
17 WR Chris Godwin TB 24 4.2
18 RB Aaron Jones GB 25 3.9
19 TE George Kittle SF 26 3.8
20 WR Tyreek Hill KC 26 3.7
21 WR DeAndre Hopkins ARI 28 3.3
22 RB Nick Chubb CLE 24 3.2
23 WR Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 27 2.8
24 WR Mike Evans TB 26 2.8
25 QB Patrick Mahomes KC 24 2.6
26 WR A.J. Brown TEN 23 2.4
27 WR Allen Robinson CHI 26 2.3
28 WR D.J. Moore CAR 23 2.3
29 RB Chris Carson SEA 25 2.2
30 RB James Conner PIT 25 2.2
31 WR Calvin Ridley ATL 25 2.2
32 WR Kenny Golladay DET 26 2.2
33 WR Tyler Lockett SEA 27 2.2
34 WR Robert Woods LAR 28 2.1
35 RB Todd Gurley ATL 26 2.1
36 RB Melvin Gordon DEN 27 2.1
37 QB Lamar Jackson BAL 23 1.9
38 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 23 1.8
39 TE Zach Ertz PHI 29 1.8
40 WR Adam Thielen MIN 29 1.7
41 RB Leonard Fournette JAC 25 1.6
42 TE Mark Andrews BAL 24 1.6
43 WR DeVante Parker MIA 27 1.4
44 RB Jonathan Taylor IND 21 1.3
45 WR Amari Cooper DAL 26 1.3
46 RB Le'Veon Bell NYJ 28 1.3
47 RB David Johnson HOU 28 1.1
48 WR A.J. Green CIN 32 1.1
49 TE Darren Waller LV 27 0.9
50 WR Cooper Kupp LAR 27 0.9
51 WR D.J. Chark JAC 23 0.4
52 QB Dak Prescott DAL 27 0.4
53 WR Tyler Boyd CIN 25 0.4
54 WR Terry McLaurin WAS 24 0.3
55 WR Keenan Allen LAC 28 0.2
56 WR Courtland Sutton DEN 24 0.1
57 TE Hayden Hurst ATL 26 0.1
58 RB Mark Ingram BAL 30 0
59 WR Jarvis Landry CLE 27 -0.2
60 WR DK Metcalf SEA 22 -0.2
61 QB Russell Wilson SEA 31 -0.3
62 QB Carson Wentz PHI 27 -0.3
63 RB Ronald Jones TB 23 -0.4
64 WR Michael Gallup DAL 24 -0.4
65 QB Deshaun Watson HOU 24 -0.4
66 TE Evan Engram NYG 25 -0.5
67 WR Marquise Brown BAL 23 -0.5
68 QB Kyler Murray ARI 23 -0.5
69 RB Raheem Mostert SF 28 -0.6
70 RB D'Andre Swift DET 21 -0.6
71 WR Stefon Diggs BUF 26 -0.7
72 RB David Montgomery CHI 23 -0.7
73 RB Kareem Hunt CLE 25 -0.8
74 RB J.K. Dobbins BAL 21 -1.2
75 RB James White NE 28 -1.4
76 WR Emmanuel Sanders NO 33 -1.4
77 QB Drew Brees NO 41 -1.5
78 WR T.Y. Hilton IND 30 -1.6
79 WR Marvin Jones DET 30 -1.6
80 RB Tarik Cohen CHI 25 -1.6
81 WR Jamison Crowder NYJ 27 -1.7
82 WR Julian Edelman NE 34 -1.7
83 WR CeeDee Lamb DAL 21 -1.7
84 WR Brandin Cooks HOU 26 -1.8
85 TE Hunter Henry LAC 25 -1.8
86 WR Henry Ruggs III LV 21 -1.9
87 WR Diontae Johnson PIT 24 -2
88 RB Cam Akers LAR 21 -2
89 RB Phillip Lindsay DEN 26 -2
90 RB Devin Singletary BUF 22 -2.1
91 QB Tom Brady TB 43 -2.2
92 WR Anthony Miller CHI 25 -2.2
93 QB Matt Ryan ATL 35 -2.2
94 TE Jared Cook NO 33 -2.2
95 WR Michael Pittman Jr. IND 22 -2.3
96 QB Matthew Stafford DET 32 -2.4
97 WR Golden Tate NYG 32 -2.5
98 WR Will Fuller HOU 26 -2.5
99 RB Zack Moss BUF 22 -2.6
100 TE Tyler Higbee LAR 27 -2.7
101 WR Curtis Samuel CAR 24 -2.9
102 QB Josh Allen BUF 24 -3
103 TE Mike Gesicki MIA 24 -3
104 TE Noah Fant DEN 22 -3.1
105 TE T.J. Hockenson DET 23 -3.1
106 WR Justin Jefferson MIN 21 -3.1
107 TE Blake Jarwin DAL 26 -3.2
108 QB Daniel Jones NYG 23 -3.2
109 TE Chris Herndon NYJ 24 -3.2
110 TE Dallas Goedert PHI 26 -3.2
111 WR Christian Kirk ARI 23 -3.3
112 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 36 -3.3
113 WR Parris Campbell IND 23 -3.4
114 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 38 -3.4
115 WR Deebo Samuel SF 24 -3.4
116 WR Sterling Shepard NYG 27 -3.5
117 WR John Brown BUF 30 -3.5
118 RB Matt Breida MIA 25 -3.6
119 TE Jace Sternberger GB 24 -3.7
120 QB Cam Newton NE 31 -3.7
121 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 36 -3.7
122 TE Eric Ebron PIT 27 -3.7
123 RB Jordan Howard MIA 25 -3.8
124 WR Jerry Jeudy DEN 21 -3.8
125 RB Duke Johnson HOU 26 -3.9
126 QB Baker Mayfield CLE 25 -4
127 TE Jonnu Smith TEN 24 -4
128 WR Jalen Reagor PHI 21 -4
129 TE Rob Gronkowski TB 31 -4.1
130 RB Adrian Peterson WAS 35 -4.1
131 TE Irv Smith MIN 22 -4.1
132 RB Boston Scott PHI 25 -4.2
133 WR DeSean Jackson PHI 33 -4.2
134 WR Allen Lazard GB 24 -4.2
135 QB Joe Burrow CIN 23 -4.2
136 QB Ryan Tannehill TEN 32 -4.3
137 TE Greg Olsen SEA 35 -4.3
138 TE Gerald Everett LAR 26 -4.3
139 WR Steven Sims WAS 23 -4.4
140 QB Jared Goff LAR 25 -4.4
141 RB Tevin Coleman SF 27 -4.5
142 QB Jimmy Garoppolo SF 28 -4.6
143 WR Mecole Hardman KC 22 -4.6
144 RB Tony Pollard DAL 23 -4.6
145 RB Kerryon Johnson DET 23 -4.6
146 WR Mike Williams LAC 25 -4.7
147 RB Sony Michel NE 25 -4.7
148 WR Randall Cobb HOU 29 -4.8
149 WR Preston Williams MIA 23 -4.8
150 WR Robby Anderson CAR 27 -4.8
151 RB Marlon Mack IND 24 -4.8
152 WR Darius Slayton NYG 23 -5.1
153 TE Tyler Eifert JAC 29 -5.2
154 QB Derek Carr LV 29 -5.3
155 TE Austin Hooper CLE 25 -5.3
156 TE Jack Doyle IND 30 -5.4
157 QB Gardner Minshew JAC 24 -5.4
158 TE Ian Thomas CAR 24 -5.5
159 WR Dede Westbrook JAC 26 -5.5
160 RB Darrynton Evans TEN 22 -5.6
161 QB Kirk Cousins MIN 31 -5.6
162 QB Tyrod Taylor LAC 31 -5.6
163 WR Sammy Watkins KC 27 -5.6
164 TE O.J. Howard TB 25 -5.7
165 WR Cole Beasley BUF 31 -5.7
166 QB Philip Rivers IND 38 -5.8
167 RB Chris Thompson JAC 29 -5.8
168 RB Jerick McKinnon SF 28 -5.9
169 WR Bryan Edwards LV 21 -6.1
170 RB Alexander Mattison MIN 22 -6.2
171 RB Latavius Murray NO 30 -6.2
172 WR Laviska Shenault Jr. JAC 21 -6.2
173 WR Brandon Aiyuk SF 22 -6.2
174 WR Mohamed Sanu NE 30 -6.3
175 WR James Washington PIT 24 -6.3


Half-Pt PPR Big Board | Non-PPR Big Board


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.