Raw numbers do not tell us nearly everything we need to know as
fantasy football managers.
Scoring touchdowns may be random events more often than not,
but wild statistical peaks and valleys from a player usually happen
for a reason (or multiple reasons). Unfortunately, with 32 teams
and 16 games most weeks, it is impractical and probably impossible
for one person (or even a team of people) to study the film, truly
understand what they are watching and answer all the questions
that need to be asked before the next week begins. The sad truth
is most of those questions probably don't have clear answers anyway.
Thus, we are often left with studying consistency of opportunity
and some of the peripheral numbers that we know contribute or
at least strongly correlate to player performance. An idea I have
wanted to explore for some time was a week-by-week breakdown of
target shares. (I did a preseason column similar to this several
years ago, but I have never done it during the season.) Just like
with everything else in fantasy football, context is needed.
The table below shows a weekly breakdown of the pass attempts
by each team's quarterbacks. While I acknowledge non-quarterbacks
do occasionally throw the ball and contribute to a pass-catcher's
target total as a result, I wanted this research to be as "pure"
as possible. (Because I wanted to provide more context, numbers
in red came in team losses while numbers in green came in team
wins. This applies to each of the tables below.)
Key:
Avg W - Average number
of pass attempts in wins Avg L - Average number of pass attempts in losses
QB Pass Attempts
Per Game, Weeks 1-5
Tm
1
2
3
4
5
Avg
Avg W
Avg L
Min
Max
ARI
32
36
34
32
31
33.0
33.0
N/A
31
36
ATL
35
48
36
42
45
41.2
40.5
41.7
35
48
BAL
30
26
31
37
43
33.4
34.3
30.0
26
43
BUF
51
33
43
30
26
36.6
33.0
51.0
26
51
CAR
35
38
34
39
37
36.6
35.7
38.0
34
39
CHI
40
24
20
17
21
24.4
20.7
30.0
17
40
CIN
27
30
18
32
38
29.0
25.7
34.0
18
38
CLE
28
21
31
33
32
29.0
28.3
30.0
21
33
DAL
58
27
26
22
32
33.0
26.8
58.0
22
58
DEN
36
34
25
37
38
34.0
31.7
37.5
25
38
DET
57
36
30
38
35
39.2
N/A
39.2
30
57
GB
35
27
33
36
39
34.0
33.8
35.0
27
39
HOU
33
29
28
21
29
28.0
33.0
31.0
21
33
IND
38
36
37
32
35
35.6
32.0
36.5
32
38
JAC
51
33
34
24
33
35.0
N/A
35.0
24
51
KC
36
31
44
30
54
39.0
33.0
43.0
30
54
LAC
47
41
38
38
43
41.4
41.5
41.0
38
47
LAR
26
30
38
41
37
34.4
32.8
41.0
26
41
LVR
56
37
43
34
35
41.0
45.3
34.5
34
56
MIA
27
44
49
30
39
37.8
27.0
37.8
27
49
MIN
49
32
38
38
34
38.2
36.0
39.7
32
49
NE
39
30
51
40
30
38.0
30.0
43.3
30
51
NO
21
22
21
26
30
24.0
24.0
24.0
21
30
NYG
37
32
35
40
38
36.4
40.0
35.5
32
40
NYJ
37
33
35
34
32
34.2
34.0
34.3
32
37
PHI
35
23
39
48
37
36.4
36.0
36.7
23
48
PIT
32
40
58
40
25
39.0
28.5
46.0
25
58
SF
26
30
40
41
29
33.2
28.0
36.7
26
41
SEA
23
31
32
23
33
28.4
23.0
32.0
23
33
TB
50
36
55
43
45
45.8
43.5
55.0
36
55
TEN
35
40
27
49
22
34.6
29.7
42.0
22
49
WAS
21
46
24
33
41
33.0
39.5
28.7
21
46
Several things become clear upon reviewing the information in the
table above:
1) six teams (CHI, CIN, CLE, HOU, NO, SEA) are not averaging
30 pass attempts - which is a pace that would lend itself to fewer
than 480 throws over the course of a 16-game season. (Because
this is the first year of the 17-game schedule, I think it makes
sense here to work within the 16-game construct.) Only two teams
last season (NE, BAL) attempted fewer than 30 passes per game.
2) Chicago and New Orleans are barely on pace to throw the ball
400 times even if we account for the 17th game. Even the 2020
Ravens' threw the ball more than the Bears and Saints are so far.
We have to go back to the ground-and-pound 2009 Jets to find the
last team that attempted fewer than 400 pass attempts in a season.
Jericho Cotchery led that team with 57 catches and 821 receiving
yards while Braylon Edwards paced the team with four receiving
touchdowns. If you are looking for answers as to why Allen Robinson,
Darnell Mooney and Marquez Callaway are failing to live up to
expectations, the ridiculous lack of volume in the passing game
is a good place to start.
3) On the other end of the spectrum, four teams (ATL, LAC, LV,
TB) are averaging more than 40 pass attempts. (The league average
is usually around 35.)
a) While Justin Herbert and Tom Brady are likely on a roster
in every single "normal" league, Derek Carr and especially
Matt Ryan may not be. Carr's pass attempts have normalized somewhat
since his 56 attempts in the season opener. Ryan's attempts have
not, going over 40 throws three times since his season-low 35
in Week 1. On a related note, this kind of volume pretty much
locks in Calvin Ridley as a player who will see 10 or more targets
per game. It also means Cordarrelle Patterson's target volume
is unlikely to change much even when Russell Gage returns.
b) it should go without saying that if Brady is going to continue
averaging 45 pass attempts, there is going to be more than enough
volume for Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski
and likely at least one other Buc. For those that care about such
things, Tampa Bay is on a 17-game pace to throw roughly 779 passes
at its current average of 45.8 pass attempts.
***************
Very good production for most receivers typically starts at around
a 20 percent target share - give or take a few percentage points
(depending on variables such as average depth of target and catch
rate). Elite target share is typically 25 percent or higher. For
running backs and tight ends, those marks are usually 15 and 20,
respectively.
With that in mind, the goal for this week is to highlight the
players who are consistently reaching those benchmarks and which
ones are trending in the right direction.
Key:
25/20/15/10 - Number of times
the running back reached the target share threshold.
20 & Over Club (two or more times above 20 percent target
share)
Alvin Kamara
Najee Harris
Alexander Mattison
When we combine Dalvin Cook's 14.3 percent target share in Week
1 and 15.8 percent target share in Week 4 with Mattison handling
a 20 percent share twice, it is clear whomever the healthy running
back in Minnesota in a given week is going to produce regardless
of game script.
15 & Over Club (two or more times above 15 percent
target share)
Alvin Kamara
D'Andre Swift
Najee Harris
Alexander Mattison
Myles Gaskin
David Johnson
Cordarrelle Patterson
Kareem Hunt
Chase Edmonds
Austin Ekeler
Nyheim Hines
Saquon Barkley*
Christian McCaffrey
David Montgomery**
James White ***
* - Reportedly out 2-6 weeks
** - Reportedly out at least a month
*** - Likely out for the season
It is not surprising given their skill sets that Gaskin and Johnson
are on the list above, but it is surprising that appear here given
how much their roles have been minimized when compared to 2020.
Hines has been the ultimate negative game script back in recent
years, so his presence above is not a shock for a 1-4 team. Devontae Booker is no Barkley, but we can expect he will probably see something
approaching the 15 and 20 percent marks Barkley had before his
early exit in Week 5. Even though Montgomery has only missed one
full game, Damien Williams already has four games above a 10 percent
target share.
Moving on up (under-the-radar RBs who have steadily seen
their target shares increase since Week 1)
Brandon Bolden
Kyle Juszczyk
AJ Dillon
Michael Carter
Darrel Williams
Bolden appears to be the new - and less exciting - James White.
He is not someone fantasy managers want to rely on (obviously),
but Bolden also should not be floating around on a waiver wire
in any league where a team was willing to use White in the flex.
There may be a time in the near future Elijah Mitchell grabs more
of the work in the passing game, but Juszczyk figures to remain
the main option in San Francisco in long down-and-distance and
two-minute situations - at least until JaMycal Hasty returns.
He would be a desperation play for sure, but fantasy managers
in a pinch during the bye weeks could do worse than the 49ers
fullback in games where San Francisco is expected to play from
behind.
Dillon's recent fantasy point totals indicate he is starting
to carve out more of a role in Green Bay, but his usage (snaps,
routes run, target share, etc.) suggests little has changed. Carter's
target share has yet to rise above 10 percent in any game, but
his ability to contribute in the passing game was one of his strengths
in college. The Jets seem to like/trust Ty Johnson more at the
moment, but it is encouraging nonetheless that the rookie is at
least consistently pushing for a 10 percent target share while
also handing more than half of the rushing attempts. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
only saw a target share of 10 percent once before going down,
so don't expect Darrel Williams to be much different. CEH's floor
should be the expectation from Williams while Edwards-Helaire
is out.
Key:
25/20/15/10 - Number
of times the tight end reached the target share threshold.
20 & Over Club (three or more times above 20 percent
target share)
Mark Andrews
Darren Waller
Travis Kelce
Dalton Schultz
Kyle Pitts
The five players in the 20 & Over Club rank second, fifth,
first, fourth and sixth, respectively, in overall scoring at tight
end. There is not too much to worry about from this group, but
fantasy managers should consider selling high on Schultz. Michael Gallup will return soon, adding another capable target to an offense
that is averaging only 26.8 pass attempts since Week 1.
15 & Over Club (three or more times above 15 percent
target share)
Mark Andrews
Darren Waller
Travis Kelce
Cole Kmet
Dalton Schultz
Kyle Pitts
Mike Gesicki
Noah Fant
T.J. Hockenson
George Kittle
Zach Ertz
There are two very surprising names in the 15 & Over Club.
The argument can be made that it is not overly difficult for a
player to reach a target share of 15 percent when his offense
is averaging 24.4 pass attempts, but there is reason to believe
Kmet could bust out if Chicago finds itself in a negative game
script again anytime soon. (There is a good chance that happens
over the next two weeks with games against the Packers and Bucs.)
The other noteworthy name is Ertz. Philadelphia has targeted the
tight end position 44 times through five games (8.8 per game).
Ertz holds a 25-19 edge on Dallas Goedert for the season and should
get all the targets to himself for at least Week 6 with Goedert
landing on the COVID list earlier this week.
An interesting omission from both lists is Dawson Knox, who has
unquestionably become a bigger part of the Buffalo offense in
2021 but only has a plus-15 target share twice in five games.
His overall production (18-261-5) is very similar to that of David Njoku (14-260-1), with the major difference between that Knox
is averaging one touchdown for every 3.6 catches and Njoku is
not. There is a possibility Knox is this year's Robert Tonyan.
The major difference between the two situations is that Tonyan
was the clear No. 2 option in the Green Bay offense in 2020. Emmanuel Sanders holds that distinction in Buffalo right now. Working in
Knox's favor is how much more volume there is in the Bills' passing
game than what Green Bay had last season, so Knox could remain
very relevant. The problem with believing that is that Cole Beasley
must remain an afterthought in the offense coming off back-to-back
100-target seasons), Stefon Diggs must continue being unlucky
in the red zone and Knox must maintain a scoring rate we probably
have not seen since Rob Gronkowski's rookie year (10 TDs on 46
catches).
Moving on up (under-the-radar TEs who have steadily seen
their target shares increase since Week 1)
Hunter Henry
Zach Ertz
Dan Arnold
Tommy Tremble
Mo Alie-Cox
Tyler Conklin
There are 12 instances of a tight end going over 25 percent target
share this season. Henry did exactly that last week. Jonnu Smith
is running a route on a third of New England's pass plays for
the season, leaving Henry to grab the rest of the work. Arnold
ran a route on 74 percent of Jacksonville's pass plays in Week
5, less than two weeks after his trade from Carolina. There is
a good chance we will be talking about him as a top-15 tight end
the rest of the way. Tremble reached a target share of 10 percent
for the first time in Week 5. His route run rate has almost doubled
since the Arnold trade, but so has Ian Thomas'. Tremble will push
past Thomas at some point, but it is nearly impossible to guess
when that will happen.
Alie-Cox appears as if he is making a push. We have been down
this road before with him, only to have Indy flip the script and
try to make Trey Burton or an aging Jack Doyle a thing. Alie-Cox
is worth using in a pinch this week against the Texans, who own
the most forgiving defense against tight ends. Conklin's peripherals
(snaps, routes run, target share, etc.) did not change much from
recent weeks in Week 5, but his target share dropped below 10
percent for the first time since Week 1. It is most likely a matter
of weekly volatility, especially when we consider Minnesota could
not get Adam Thielen involved until late in the game.
Key:
25/20/15/10 - Number of times
the running back reached the target share threshold.
25 & Over Club (four times above 25 percent target
share)
Deebo Samuel
Cooper Kupp
Davante Adams
Terry McLaurin
Ja'Marr Chase
The lowest ranking of a receiver in the 25 & Over Club is
McLaurin at 13. The other four are ninth or higher.
20 & Over Club (five times above 20 percent target
share)
Deebo Samuel
Cooper Kupp
Davante Adams
Terry McLaurin
Ja'Marr Chase
Darnell Mooney
DeVonta Smith
Keenan Allen
Stefon Diggs
D.J. Moore
Brandon Cooks
Jakobi Meyers
DK Metcalf
Mike Williams
Courtland Sutton
Marquise Brown
Michael Pittman Jr.
Adam Thielen
Calvin Ridley
Most of the 19 names in this group are ones you would expect,
as Ridley's WR39 spot is the second-lowest of the group. Then
there is Mooney, who sits at WR55. (He would be the WR45 if had
even just one touchdown to his name.) Chicago's 20.5 pass attempts
per game since Week 1 is not going to allow any pass-catcher to
flourish. It is a mindboggling notion that a team has chosen to
resort to this kind of "attack" in today's NFL to protect
its rookie quarterback from his offensive line.
Moving on up (under-the-radar WRs who have steadily seen
their target shares increase since Week 1)
Hunter Renfrow
Tim Patrick
Kadarius Toney
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Quez Watkins
Jamal Agnew
You would not know it based on how much his name comes up in
fantasy football discussions, but Renfrow is the WR28 through
five weeks. It is what can happen when a player is extremely savvy
with his route running, has trustworthy hands and owns an average
depth of target of 7.3 yards. Tim Patrick is the perimeter receiver
version of Renfrow. He has a target share of 20 percent in each
of Teddy Bridgewater's last two full games. I comped Toney to
a smaller version of Deebo Samuel when I evaluated him this spring.
His rise to prominence will likely lead to a smaller role moving
forward for Darius Slayton, although the situation is fluid considering
how often primary slot receiver Sterling Shepard gets hurt. We
saw a microcosm of the danger moving forward with Toney in Week
5; he is an incredible talent that has maturity issues dating
back to his early days at the University of Florida.
Detroit passing game saw Quintez Cephus shine in Weeks 1-2, Kalif Raymond step up in Weeks 3-4 and St. Brown in Week 5. With Tyrell Williams still out and Cephus (collarbone) likely done for the
year, the natural inclination is to believe the rookie's back-to-back
20 percent target rates could be a trend. The more likely outcome,
however, is that Cephus' absence will lead to more targets moving
forward for D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson - the latter of which
has been battling through a knee injury. The Philadelphia passing
game - at least when discussing receivers - is all about DeVonta Smith. However, Jalen Hurts noted in August that the secret was
out on Watkins after he showed off his explosiveness during the
preseason. Jalen Reagor is still getting a bigger piece of the
passing game pie than Watkins for now, but a quick look at their
fantasy numbers is enough to make one wonder why that is the case.
Reagor was drafted largely because of his speed, but his 8.2 yards
per catch and 8.4 aDOT (compared to Watkins' 20.5 and 11.0, respectively)
would suggest a change on the depth chart is overdue - especially
when we consider Watkins' catch rate is higher.
I wrote last week about
Tavon Austin emerging as a potential deep-dive option for fantasy
owners. While a 5-54-0 showing on five targets isn't bad for someone
who was virtually unowned in fantasy before Week 5, the reason
I passed on Agnew in the column was that I thought he was too
important as a returner to risk in a full-time offensive role.
Yeah, about that … he somehow ran more routes than Laviska Shenault did in Week 5. Getting a target share of 24.2 percent
in your first game as a key offensive contributor is impressive,
regardless of the reason. Before anyone gets overly hyped though,
his aDOT in that game was 3.3. On the plus side: his return ability
tells us he is explosive and his 24 snaps in the slot last week
tells us the Jaguars believe in his ability to get open quickly.
He is someone to monitor over the next game or two.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010.
He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football
internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
