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Top 200 Big Board, Non-PPR: Version 2.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/30/20 |
PPR | Half-Point PPR | Non-PPR | SuperFlex

Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men are being asked to work in harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men are being asked to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards in this day and age - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it doesn't mean we shouldn't try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make 7,500 "decisions". This is not meant to be a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. I like to think that even if readers believe my logic is flawed for whatever reason, they can count on the fact that much thought has been put into that opinion.

How much thought, you ask?

For example, Michael Gallup lined up on the left side of the formation 456 times, on the right side 292 times and in the slot 96 times last year. Since the majority of defensive coordinators tend to have their cornerbacks stick to one side as opposed to following a particular receiver, Gallup's ability to match up and defeat each of the defensive backs in those spots should/needs to be considered. I do that for each player who projects to stand inside the top three of his team's depth chart, and all of that information is factored into my projections. While how often Gallup lines up in a certain spot will inevitably be different from last year, it's unlikely his role as Dallas' "X" receiver will change under second-year OC Kellen Moore.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and our job as analysts is identifying when stocks may be poised for an increase or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy owners/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. This is the approach I have taken for more than 10 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions that have been featured in this space over the last two weeks. As always, the matchups are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern.

In the coming days, I will present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams. Next week will feature Top 200 Big Boards for Superflex leagues as well as the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Non-PPR format:

 Non-PPR Big Board - Top 200
Rank Tier Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 8.5
2 1 RB2 Saquon Barkley NYG 8.3
3 1 RB3 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 6.7
4 1 RB4 Derrick Henry TEN 6.4
5 1 RB5 Alvin Kamara NO 5.8
6 1 RB6 Dalvin Cook MIN 4.9
7 1 RB7 Josh Jacobs LV 4.6
8 1 RB8 Joe Mixon CIN 4.5
9 1 RB9 Nick Chubb CLE 4.4
10 1 WR1 Davante Adams GB 4.2
11 2 RB10 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC 3.8
12 2 RB11 Kenyan Drake ARI 3.8
13 2 RB12 Miles Sanders PHI 3.8
14 2 QB1 Patrick Mahomes KC 3.3
15 2 RB13 Aaron Jones GB 3.2
16 2 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 3.1
17 2 WR2 Michael Thomas NO 3.0
18 2 TE2 George Kittle SF 3.0
19 2 RB14 Jonathan Taylor IND 2.9
20 2 WR3 Tyreek Hill KC 2.7
21 2 WR4 Chris Godwin TB 2.7
22 2 WR5 Julio Jones ATL 2.6
23 3 RB15 Chris Carson SEA 2.3
24 3 RB16 James Conner PIT 2.0
25 3 WR6 A.J. Brown TEN 2.0
26 3 WR7 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 1.9
27 3 RB17 Mark Ingram BAL 1.9
28 3 QB2 Lamar Jackson BAL 1.8
29 3 WR8 Mike Evans TB 1.7
30 3 WR9 DeAndre Hopkins ARI 1.6
31 3 RB18 Austin Ekeler LAC 1.5
32 3 WR10 Adam Thielen MIN 1.3
33 3 WR11 Allen Robinson CHI 1.3
34 3 WR12 Calvin Ridley ATL 1.3
35 3 WR13 Kenny Golladay DET 1.3
36 4 TE3 Mark Andrews BAL 1.2
37 4 WR14 DK Metcalf SEA 1.1
38 4 WR15 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 1.0
39 4 RB19 Todd Gurley ATL 0.9
40 4 RB20 Leonard Fournette JAC 0.9
41 4 WR16 Tyler Lockett SEA 0.9
42 4 TE4 Zach Ertz PHI 0.9
43 4 TE5 Darren Waller LV 0.9
44 4 WR17 D.J. Moore CAR 0.8
45 4 WR18 Robert Woods LAR 0.8
46 4 WR19 Terry McLaurin WAS 0.8
47 4 RB21 Ronald Jones TB 0.7
48 4 RB22 Raheem Mostert SF 0.7
49 4 RB23 Melvin Gordon DEN 0.7
50 5 WR20 DeVante Parker MIA 0.6
51 5 QB3 Dak Prescott DAL 0.5
52 5 WR21 Amari Cooper DAL 0.4
53 5 RB24 David Johnson HOU 0.4
54 5 TE6 Hayden Hurst ATL 0.2
55 5 RB25 D'Andre Swift DET 0.1
56 5 WR22 D.J. Chark JAC 0.1
57 5 WR23 Courtland Sutton DEN 0.1
58 5 WR24 Jarvis Landry CLE 0.1
59 5 WR25 Marquise Brown BAL -0.1
60 5 WR26 Will Fuller HOU -0.1
61 5 RB26 Le'Veon Bell NYJ -0.1
62 5 TE7 Evan Engram NYG -0.1
63 5 RB27 David Montgomery CHI -0.2
64 5 WR27 A.J. Green CIN -0.2
65 5 QB4 Kyler Murray ARI -0.3
66 5 QB5 Russell Wilson SEA -0.3
67 5 QB6 Carson Wentz PHI -0.3
68 5 QB7 Deshaun Watson HOU -0.4
69 5 WR28 Michael Gallup DAL -0.5
70 5 WR29 Tyler Boyd CIN -0.6
71 5 RB28 Cam Akers LAR -0.6
72 6 WR30 Cooper Kupp LAR -0.7
73 6 RB29 Marlon Mack IND -0.7
74 6 RB30 Zack Moss BUF -0.8
75 6 WR31 T.Y. Hilton IND -0.9
76 6 RB31 J.K. Dobbins BAL -0.9
77 6 WR32 Keenan Allen LAC -0.9
78 6 TE8 Tyler Higbee LAR -1.0
79 6 WR33 Stefon Diggs BUF -1.0
80 6 WR34 Marvin Jones DET -1.0
81 6 RB32 Kareem Hunt CLE -1.1
82 6 TE9 Hunter Henry LAC -1.1
83 6 QB8 Tom Brady TB -1.1
84 6 TE10 Rob Gronkowski TB -1.2
85 6 WR35 Brandin Cooks HOU -1.2
86 7 WR36 CeeDee Lamb DAL -1.2
87 7 QB9 Drew Brees NO -1.3
88 7 TE11 T.J. Hockenson DET -1.3
89 7 TE12 Jared Cook NO -1.4
90 7 WR37 Michael Pittman Jr. IND -1.4
91 7 WR38 Jalen Reagor PHI -1.5
92 7 RB33 Phillip Lindsay DEN -1.5
93 7 TE13 Jonnu Smith TEN -1.7
94 7 WR39 Curtis Samuel CAR -1.7
95 7 WR40 Henry Ruggs III LV -1.7
96 7 TE14 Chris Herndon NYJ -1.7
97 7 TE15 O.J. Howard TB -1.7
98 7 WR41 Diontae Johnson PIT -1.8
99 7 WR42 Christian Kirk ARI -1.8
100 7 WR43 Anthony Miller CHI -1.8
101 7 TE16 Mike Gesicki MIA -1.8
102 7 TE17 Eric Ebron PIT -1.8
103 7 RB34 Jordan Howard MIA -1.8
104 7 RB35 Devin Singletary BUF -1.9
105 8 TE18 Noah Fant DEN -1.9
106 8 QB10 Josh Allen BUF -2.0
107 8 WR44 Golden Tate NYG -2.0
108 8 QB11 Matt Ryan ATL -2.2
109 8 TE19 Dallas Goedert PHI -2.2
110 8 WR45 DeSean Jackson PHI -2.2
111 8 WR46 Jamison Crowder NYJ -2.2
112 8 WR47 Emmanuel Sanders NO -2.2
113 8 WR48 Parris Campbell IND -2.2
114 8 QB12 Matthew Stafford DET -2.3
115 8 WR49 Julian Edelman NE -2.3
116 8 RB36 Alexander Mattison MIN -2.3
117 8 RB37 Latavius Murray NO -2.4
118 8 RB38 Matt Breida MIA -2.4
119 9 RB39 Damien Harris NE -2.4
120 9 WR50 Jerry Jeudy DEN -2.4
121 9 WR51 Mecole Hardman KC -2.5
122 9 TE20 Irv Smith MIN -2.5
123 9 WR52 Darius Slayton NYG -2.5
124 9 WR53 Sterling Shepard NYG -2.5
125 9 WR54 Deebo Samuel SF -2.6
126 9 WR55 Preston Williams MIA -2.6
127 9 WR56 Bryan Edwards LV -2.8
128 9 TE21 Blake Jarwin DAL -2.8
129 9 TE22 Gerald Everett LAR -2.8
130 9 QB13 Daniel Jones NYG -2.9
131 9 WR57 John Brown BUF -2.9
132 9 RB40 Adrian Peterson WAS -2.9
133 10 TE23 Austin Hooper CLE -2.9
134 10 TE24 Greg Olsen SEA -2.9
135 10 QB14 Ben Roethlisberger PIT -3.0
136 10 WR58 Randall Cobb HOU -3.0
137 10 RB41 Tarik Cohen CHI -3.0
138 10 RB42 James White NE -3.0
139 10 WR59 Justin Jefferson MIN -3.1
140 10 QB15 Aaron Rodgers GB -3.1
141 10 WR60 Allen Lazard GB -3.2
142 10 RB43 Chase Edmonds ARI -3.2
143 10 WR61 Mike Williams LAC -3.3
144 10 TE25 Tyler Eifert JAC -3.4
145 10 RB44 Tevin Coleman SF -3.5
146 10 QB16 Baker Mayfield CLE -3.5
147 10 RB45 Boston Scott PHI -3.5
148 10 RB46 Kerryon Johnson DET -3.5
149 11 WR62 Brandon Aiyuk SF -3.6
150 11 TE26 Jace Sternberger GB -3.6
151 11 TE27 Ian Thomas CAR -3.7
152 11 RB47 Antonio Gibson WAS -3.8
153 11 WR63 Robby Anderson CAR -3.8
154 11 WR64 Steven Sims WAS -3.8
155 11 QB17 Joe Burrow CIN -3.8
156 11 QB18 Ryan Tannehill TEN -3.8
157 11 TE28 Jack Doyle IND -3.8
158 11 RB48 Duke Johnson HOU -3.9
159 11 RB49 Joshua Kelley LAC -3.9
160 11 WR65 Larry Fitzgerald ARI -3.9
161 11 QB19 Cam Newton NE -4.1
162 11 WR66 Hunter Renfrow LV -4.2
163 11 WR67 Sammy Watkins KC -4.3
164 11 RB50 AJ Dillon GB -4.3
165 11 WR68 James Washington PIT -4.3
166 11 RB51 Darrel Williams KC -4.4
167 11 WR69 John Ross CIN -4.5
168 11 QB20 Jared Goff LAR -4.5
169 12 WR70 Laviska Shenault JAC -4.7
170 12 RB52 Jerick McKinnon SF -4.7
171 12 WR71 Dede Westbrook JAC -4.8
172 12 RB53 Tony Pollard DAL -4.8
173 12 QB21 Gardner Minshew JAC -4.9
174 12 WR72 Cole Beasley BUF -5.0
175 12 WR73 Breshad Perriman NYJ -5.0
176 12 QB22 Jimmy Garoppolo SF -5.0
177 12 RB54 Darrell Henderson LAR -5.1
178 12 QB23 Kirk Cousins MIN -5.1
179 13 WR74 Tee Higgins CIN -5.1
180 13 QB24 Philip Rivers IND -5.1
181 13 WR75 Corey Davis TEN -5.2
182 13 WR76 Trent Taylor SF -5.2
183 13 QB25 Derek Carr LV -5.3
184 13 RB55 Bryce Love WAS -5.4
185 13 WR77 Mohamed Sanu NE -5.4
186 13 QB26 Tyrod Taylor LAC -5.6
187 13 RB56 Chris Thompson JAC -5.6
188 13 QB27 Teddy Bridgewater CAR -5.7
189 13 RB57 Nyheim Hines IND -5.7
190 14 WR78 Kendrick Bourne SF -5.8
191 14 WR79 N'Keal Harry NE -6.0
192 14 RB58 LeSean McCoy TB -6.0
193 14 WR80 Russell Gage ATL -6.0
194 14 WR81 Alshon Jeffery PHI -6.3
195 14 RB59 Sony Michel NE -6.4
196 14 WR82 Denzel Mims NYJ -6.4
197 14 RB60 Darrynton Evans TEN -6.6
198 14 QB28 Drew Lock DEN -6.7
199 14 RB61 Justin Jackson LAC -6.9
200 14 RB62 Jamaal Williams GB -7.9


PPR Big Board | Half-Pt PPR Big Board | SuperFlex





Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.