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The Great Divide



By Doug Orth | 10/20/22 |

Fantasy football is often won by special players doing special things on a more consistent basis than other players. Many factors contribute to why special players are, in fact, special. Those factors are more of a discussion for the offseason. During the season, it often helps to take a macro look at the fantasy landscape of each position.

Below you will find a position-by-position breakdown of relevant players in the fantasy game. The goal of this piece is twofold: 1) to clearly illustrate and contextualize what each player is doing on a weekly basis and 2) to see how glaring the difference between certain players at the same position are.

For each position, I will lay out different fantasy scoring criteria that will illuminate what has transpired to this point and give fantasy managers a clear picture of how much of a disparity there is between the upper, middle and lower classes at each position. The color coding should provide some insight as to how consistent each player has been as well.

Note: Tables are sorted by fantasy points per game.

Key:

Green - At least 24 fantasy points per game (FPts/G) [Elite QB1]
White - Between 20-24 FPPG [Mid-range or low-end QB1]
Yellow - Between 15-20 FPPG [QB2]
Red - Less than 15 FPts/G
Blue - Did not play (DNP)
Black - Bye week

 Weekly QB Scoring
Rk Player 1 2 3 4 5 6 FPts FPts/G
1 Josh Allen 33.5 29.7 27.7 24.5 36.2 27.4 178.9 29.8
2 Lamar Jackson 21.2 42.6 40.4 15.1 15.8 18.1 153.2 25.5
3 Jalen Hurts 24.7 34.0 27.6 17.0 27.7 16.9 147.9 24.6
4 Patrick Mahomes 34.9 17.3 17.1 24.4 30.5 21.6 145.7 24.3
5 Joe Burrow 22.2 15.6 23.0 20.1 18.3 32.5 131.6 21.9
6 Jared Goff 16.5 26.0 14.9 33.2 7.9 B 98.5 19.7
7 Kyler Murray 19.6 25.9 13.4 23.9 17.2 16.9 116.8 19.5
8 Geno Smith 17.2 7.1 19.9 31.7 24.0 12.7 112.6 18.8
9 Justin Herbert 23.3 24.5 14.6 21.1 14.4 9.4 107.2 17.9
10 Tua Tagovailoa 14.8 40.9 11.4 3.4 DNP DNP 70.5 17.6
11 Trevor Lawrence 14.4 18.5 24.2 10.7 12.3 24.9 105.0 17.5
12 Derek Carr 16.8 19.0 20.8 11.5 17.9 B 86.1 17.2
13 Carson Wentz 28.7 27.8 9.6 9.3 22.9 4.2 102.5 17.1
14 Joe Flacco 15.4 27.9 7.4 DNP DNP DNP 50.6 16.9
15 Kirk Cousins 19.1 11.8 18.3 13.9 22.2 15.5 100.9 16.8
16 Marcus Mariota 20.8 15.4 17.6 4.9 17.0 24.2 99.8 16.6
17 Jameis Winston 20.7 10.6 16.6 DNP DNP DNP 47.9 16.0
18 Tom Brady 11.4 10.4 14.7 26.4 18.7 13.7 95.4 15.9
19 Jimmy Garoppolo 16.7 10.4 13.9 18.0 18.9 77.9 15.6
20 Matt Ryan 17.3 4.8 16.3 19.8 8.1 27.2 93.5 15.6
21 Daniel Jones 17.0 13.1 14.7 21.6 12.4 14.5 93.4 15.6
22 Russell Wilson 17.8 12.1 9.1 27.5 11.2 13.8 91.4 15.2
23 Jacoby Brissett 10.9 16.5 17.9 16.0 15.4 11.6 88.2 14.7
24 Aaron Rodgers 5.7 17.4 17.1 17.1 16.9 12.8 87.0 14.5
25 Mac Jones 10.5 13.7 18.9 DNP DNP DNP 43.1 14.4
26 Ryan Tannehill 19.3 2.9 19.8 14.4 11.5 B 67.9 13.6
27 Zach Wilson DNP DNP DNP 20.8 14.6 4.5 39.9 13.3
28 Justin Fields 14.6 9.8 6.9 11.2 17.0 19.4 79.0 13.2
29 Matthew Stafford 10.8 20.9 10.2 8.8 13.3 12.8 76.7 12.8
30 Bailey Zappe DNP DNP DNP 7.0 11.0 19.4 37.3 12.4
31 Kenny Pickett DNP DNP DNP 15.3 13.1 8.3 36.7 12.2
32 Baker Mayfield 19.0 13.3 10.7 8.9 7.6 DNP 59.5 11.9
33 Andy Dalton DNP DNP DNP 13.7 10.9 10.5 35.1 11.7
34 Davis Mills 16.5 7.2 11.8 15.8 5.8 B 57.1 11.4
35 Mitchell Trubisky 12.7 11.4 15.0 2.5 DNP 10.3 51.8 10.4
36 Cooper Rush 2.6 13.6 12.4 17.6 4.0 8.2 58.4 9.7
37 Teddy Bridgewater DNP DNP 0.0 11.8 0.0 20.2 32.0 8.0

For most of the 15-plus years that I played in leagues that awarded six fantasy points for all touchdowns, I considered 20 fantasy points the bare minimum of what I should expect from my starting quarterback. After all, 200 yards passing and two touchdowns or 250 yards and two touchdowns with one interception is not a lot to ask in today's game. Even though most of my leagues are now four points per passing touchdown, the influx of quarterbacks who regularly contribute to the running game still makes 20 fantasy points a reasonable goal for fantasy managers to shoot for with their signal-callers.

With that in mind, it has been a case of the haves and have-nots through six weeks. In other words, fantasy managers are blessed to have Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes or hoping for the best with the rest of the options at the position. The separation between first place (Allen) and second place (Jackson) is stark as it is at 4.3 points/game. However, it makes for a potentially rough week for nearly half of your league if they know they have to find a way to make up 10 points at other positions in their lineup if they are rolling with Justin Herbert (17.9) or even Kyler Murray (19.5) in the same week they face the Allen team.

The color coding paints a grim picture of the state of the position right now. Allen is the only quarterback to live in the green. Only five quarterbacks have avoided a yellow and red. Joe Burrow was able to join the 20-point-per-game club because he shredded the Saints last week (32.5 fantasy points), but it is at least notable that he was neck-and-neck with Jared Goff before that game.

The landscape looks even worse once we get past Geno Smith at 18.8 points per game - a figure that dropped significantly after a surprise defensive battle took place against the Cardinals in Week 6. (Or maybe it was just Arizona's offensive ineptitude.) Even if we round up on Goff (19.7) and Murray (19.5) and give Smith credit for what he did before last week, only eight quarterbacks are averaging 20 points. That is a startling number for a position that saw 13 full-time starters reach that mark last season and 17 in 2020. We have to go back to 2017 to find the last time the position had as few as 12 full-time starters score more than 20 points per game (and that was only because Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers played only seven games apiece).

About the only beacon of hope we have at this position is the return of Dak Prescott. Although his showing in the opener against a stout Tampa Bay defense was not great before suffering his thumb injury, the expectation was that he was going to run more this season. He also has a very capable supporting cast. It is also fair to assume that Justin Herbert will be better than he has been to this point. Not only does the schedule get easier for him, but Keenan Allen's eventual return should also be a boon to his fantasy bottom line.

Key:

Green - At least 16 fantasy points per game (FPts/G) [Elite RB1]
White - Between 12-16 FPts/G [Mid-range or low-end RB1]
Yellow - Between 8-12 FPts/G [RB2]
Red - Less than 8 FPts/G [RB3]
Blue - Did not play (DNP)
Black - Bye week

 Weekly RB Scoring
Rk Player 1 2 3 4 5 6 FPts FPts/G
1 Austin Ekeler 11.2 18.4 13.3 34.9 35.9 24.3 138.0 23.0
2 Saquon Barkley 33.4 11.8 22.6 18.2 19.6 18.5 124.1 20.7
3 Nick Chubb 15.3 32.3 17.3 20.7 25.4 8.0 119.0 19.8
4 Christian McCaffrey 15.7 16.8 13.5 25.8 23.4 22.8 118.0 19.7
5 Josh Jacobs 8.3 9.1 14.7 34.5 30.3 B 96.9 19.4
6 Leonard Fournette 15.7 9.4 12.0 18.4 35.9 22.1 113.5 18.9
7 Derrick Henry 8.2 8.5 25.3 23.7 27.2 B 92.9 18.6
8 Breece Hall 11.1 13.0 15.2 15.8 27.7 20.1 102.9 17.2
9 D'Andre Swift 26.5 16.7 7.6 DNP DNP B 50.8 16.9
10 Dameon Pierce 4.9 8.7 18.1 25.9 20.3 B 77.9 15.6
11 Jamaal Williams 16.0 7.0 24.7 23.9 5.6 B 77.2 15.4
12 Rhamondre Stevenson 4.7 6.1 20.1 12.9 19.5 25.1 88.4 14.7
13 Cordarrelle Patterson 22.6 4.1 22.3 9.8 DNP DNP 58.8 14.7
14 Alvin Kamara 7.6 DNP 8.3 DNP 24.4 18.4 58.7 14.7
15 Dalvin Cook 13.8 7.6 14.6 10.6 26.1 15.3 88.0 14.7
16 Miles Sanders 18.5 11.6 5.4 29.6 8.4 14.2 87.7 14.6
17 Joe Mixon 21.5 11.3 6.8 17.4 11.8 16.8 85.6 14.3
18 Clyde Edwards-Helaire 22.4 15.8 14.9 22.4 6.5 3.3 85.3 14.2
19 Aaron Jones 10.6 32.0 6.7 14.5 10.0 7.4 81.2 13.5
20 Jonathan Taylor 27.5 7.3 12.1 4.3 DNP DNP 51.2 12.8
21 James Robinson 19.9 15.8 20.6 2.9 5.9 6.5 71.6 11.9
22 Devin Singletary 8.2 4.1 24.1 12.6 5.6 14.7 69.3 11.6
23 Dontrell Hilliard 21.9 DNP 5.4 5.8 12.3 B 45.4 11.4
24 Antonio Gibson 20.0 12.1 11.0 9.3 6.9 8.3 67.6 11.3
25 Khalil Herbert 11.3 5.1 30.9 11.1 1.1 7.5 67.0 11.2
26 Kareem Hunt 23.0 9.4 9.1 8.8 14.7 1.2 66.2 11.0
27 Tevin Coleman DNP DNP DNP DNP 21.7 0.3 22.0 11.0
28 Damien Harris 7.8 16.7 12.6 15.4 2.2 DNP 54.7 10.9
29 Najee Harris 10.6 13.9 14.1 7.4 6.6 12.9 65.5 10.9
30 Jeff Wilson 5.0 12.3 12.6 13.4 20.2 1.5 65.0 10.8
31 Javonte Williams 20.8 9.5 9.0 3.7 DNP DNP 43.0 10.8
32 Latavius Murray DNP DNP DNP 13.5 DNP 7.4 20.9 10.5
33 Rashaad Penny 8.7 1.5 7.9 28.7 5.4 DNP 52.2 10.4
34 David Montgomery 8.0 15.6 1.1 DNP 18.2 9.0 51.9 10.4
35 Ty Montgomery 10.3 DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 10.3 10.3
36 Michael Carter 17.0 10.0 5.6 4.9 17.3 5.7 60.5 10.1
37 James Conner 16.5 7.1 8.7 10.7 7.3 DNP 50.3 10.1
38 Ezekiel Elliott 5.9 5.9 14.5 10.1 7.8 15.6 59.8 10.0
39 Tony Pollard 4.2 19.8 10.5 1.8 14.6 7.2 58.1 9.7
40 Travis Etienne 8.5 8.3 10.5 3.2 14.4 12.8 57.7 9.6
41 Kenneth Walker DNP 3.5 6.3 3.4 14.8 19.0 47.0 9.4
42 AJ Dillon 20.1 7.7 5.8 9.4 3.4 9.2 55.6 9.3
43 Darrell Henderson 12.3 10.7 1.7 6.9 7.0 13.2 51.8 8.6
44 Raheem Mostert 4.2 10.9 1.1 10.1 19.2 5.8 51.3 8.6
45 J.K. Dobbins DNP DNP 6.0 22.3 4.4 1.5 34.2 8.6
46 Eno Benjamin 9.1 8.1 4.3 5.5 14.3 9.5 50.8 8.5
47 J.D. McKissic 7.8 13.3 10.0 8.6 8.7 2.0 50.4 8.4
48 Rex Burkhead 12.0 2.9 7.0 14.9 4.8 B 41.6 8.3
49 Chase Edmonds 10.5 5.1 15.7 10.0 0.1 5.1 46.5 7.8
50 Melvin Gordon 8.2 6.3 16.5 -0.2 13.3 0.8 44.9 7.5
51 Kenyan Drake 5.6 0.8 DNP DNP 3.7 19.7 29.8 7.5
52 Phillip Lindsay DNP DNP DNP DNP 8.4 6.2 14.6 7.3
53 Brian Robinson Jr. DNP DNP DNP DNP 2.2 12.0 14.2 7.1
54 Deon Jackson 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 13.1 28.1 40.9 6.8
55 Nyheim Hines 11.4 7.7 8.0 2.3 1.8 DNP 31.2 6.2
56 Samaje Perine 6.7 2.0 14.1 0.0 9.6 3.6 36.0 6.0
57 Jerick McKinnon 7.9 9.6 2.0 1.0 9.2 6.0 35.7 6.0
58 Alexander Mattison 3.6 4.4 11.4 8.8 7.0 0.3 35.5 5.9
59 Mark Ingram 2.3 7.1 7.8 7.3 3.6 6.7 34.8 5.8
60 Tyler Allgeier DNP 3.0 4.0 11.4 4.5 5.1 28.0 5.6
61 Brandon Bolden 10.8 DNP 4.1 0.9 6.4 B 22.2 5.6
62 Rachaad White 4.1 0.1 0.0 15.6 7.2 5.3 32.3 5.4
63 Caleb Huntley DNP 0.3 DNP 11.6 3.4 5.9 21.2 5.3
64 Joshua Kelley 5.5 3.5 2.3 1.5 16.2 0.0 29.0 4.8
65 Craig Reynolds 0.0 3.9 2.8 5.2 12.2 B 24.1 4.8
66 Cam Akers 0.0 8.2 11.1 1.3 3.3 DNP 23.9 4.8
67 Kenneth Gainwell 11.2 2.8 0.6 8.7 2.0 2.5 27.8 4.6
68 Justice Hill 3.1 1.6 6.0 7.7 DNP DNP 18.4 4.6
69 Elijah Mitchell 4.1 DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 4.1 4.1
70 Isiah Pacheco 12.2 0.6 0.9 6.3 0.0 3.8 23.8 4.0
71 James Cook -0.8 5.3 8.0 0.0 9.1 0.8 22.4 3.7
72 Jaylen Warren 0.7 2.5 4.3 3.2 10.3 0.2 21.2 3.5
73 Sony Michel 1.2 2.9 4.1 5.7 0.0 7.2 21.1 3.5
74 Mike Boone 1.2 0.0 0.0 3.9 11.5 1.4 18.0 3.0

*** Several running backs - such as 49ers FB Kyle Juszczyk - who average enough points to make the list but shouldn't be anywhere close to fantasy rosters were excluded from the table above.

At running back, I want my top running back to average at least 16 fantasy points (preferably closer to 20), which is the equivalent of 80 total yards and a touchdown and includes two catches. The problem with that expectation is that there have only been 44 occurrences of a back reaching each of those benchmarks in a game this season (about 7.5 per week). Worse yet, only 12 backs have achieved that feat more than once. Making matters worse, only four backs (Dameon Pierce, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley) have hit each of those marks at least three times.

The running back position comes with its usual caveats, including but not limited to games in which they leave early due to injury. If we keep that in mind for a player like D'Andre Swift, nine backs are performing at a RB1 level. Unsurprisingly, three of the four backs mentioned in the previous paragraph find themselves in this group. The fourth (Pierce) would likely push that RB1 group number to 10 if it was not for the Texans' coaching staff spoon-feeding him over the first week or two.

The running back position has not quite been the land of haves or have-nots that quarterback has, but the color coding makes it obvious that there is a lack of depth with how quickly the green fades out at the top of the table. It is also worth mentioning that injuries - as is typically the case at this position - have likely robbed fantasy managers of a few more entrants (Cordarrelle Patterson and Jonathan Taylor among them), but the fact remains most managers are not getting what they hoped for out of this position quite yet.

There is reason for hope, however. Dalvin Cook is only going to get better as long as the Vikings' passing game continues to improve. The recent success of Deon Jackson could incentivize HC Frank Reich to use Taylor as a receiver more often. Green Bay will eventually figure out that it needs to give Aaron Jones more work in the passing game (and preferably on targets a bit more down the field).

Before we move to receivers and tight ends, I do have an encouraging thought to share: league scoring is significantly down this year. How is that encouraging? Football is an eternal battle of offense versus defense. One side will eventually devise a way to exploit or shut down the other side when it becomes obvious that the former has gained a clear advantage. The tide then turns over the course of months or years and the cycle repeats itself. Through six weeks, the defense holds the upper hand. One of the most logical reasons why scoring is down across the league is how often defenses are playing zone and have adopted the strategy of forcing offenses to be patient - an approach popularized by Vic Fangio and Brandon Staley a few years ago.

Repeatedly forcing offenses into 12- or 15-play drives is not a new concept, but the willingness to dare offenses to run the ball - and stick to it - when the game is as pass-heavy as it has ever been is a bit of a new twist. The most obvious solution - and there are several - to this "new" dilemma is to give the defense what it wants but to do so with an emphasis on speed and explosiveness coming out of the backfield. It makes a ton of sense: if defenses are going to continually give offenses light boxes and/or smaller personnel (defenses play in sub packages - nickel, dime, etc. - on roughly 70 percent of plays in today's NFL), then it stands to reason that we want backs who can take advantage of that it. Unsurprisingly, each of the seven running backs (Khalil Herbert, Rashaad Penny, Nick Chubb, Cordarrelle Patterson, Aaron Jones, Travis Etienne and Kenneth Walker) that are among the top 10 qualified rushers in terms of yards per attempt right now are highly explosive.

Key:

Green - At least 16 fantasy points per game (FPts/G) [WR1]
White - Between 13-16 FPts/G [WR2]
Yellow - Between 9-12 FPts/G [WR3]
Red - Less than 8 FPts/G [WR4]
Blue - Did not play (DNP)
Black - Bye week

 Weekly WR Scoring
Rk Player 1 2 3 4 5 6 FPts FPts/G
1 Stefon Diggs 26.2 44.8 14.4 10.2 24.2 30.8 150.6 25.1
2 Cooper Kupp 31.8 32.8 16.4 26.2 25.9 16.7 149.8 25.0
3 Tyreek Hill 18.0 42.0 5.3 25.9 13.0 29.7 133.9 22.3
4 Justin Jefferson 39.4 10.8 4.4 31.0 30.3 16.7 132.6 22.1
5 Davante Adams 30.1 9.2 14.2 19.5 27.4 B 100.4 20.1
6 Amon-Ra St. Brown 20.4 39.4 13.3 DNP 5.8 B 78.9 19.7
7 Ja'Marr Chase 28.9 10.8 13.7 12.1 12.0 32.2 109.7 18.3
8 Marquise Brown 14.3 12.8 28.0 20.8 21.8 11.8 109.5 18.3
9 Michael Pittman Jr. 27.1 DNP 15.2 6.1 10.9 26.4 85.7 17.1
10 Michael Thomas 22.7 18.5 9.9 DNP DNP DNP 51.1 17.0
11 Jaylen Waddle 17.7 40.1 15.1 5.9 5.3 17.9 102.0 17.0
12 A.J. Brown 25.5 11.9 19.5 14.5 6.2 17.7 95.3 15.9
13 Jakobi Meyers 10.2 18.5 DNP DNP 24.1 10.0 62.8 15.7
14 Mike Evans 18.1 9.1 DNP 30.3 12.1 8.2 77.8 15.6
15 Chris Olave 9.1 12.0 23.7 16.7 15.4 DNP 76.9 15.4
16 Deebo Samuel 13.6 14.7 12.9 23.7 11.2 16.0 92.1 15.4
17 Gabriel Davis 18.8 DNP 6.7 2.3 32.1 16.4 76.3 15.3
18 Amari Cooper 4.7 25.1 23.1 1.9 20.6 14.4 89.8 15.0
19 CeeDee Lamb 4.9 15.1 22.7 21.7 10.3 12.7 87.4 14.6
20 Tyler Lockett 5.8 19.7 16.6 14.1 27.4 3.7 87.3 14.6
21 Allen Lazard DNP 9.3 14.5 17.6 13.5 17.6 72.5 14.5
22 Christian Kirk 17.7 25.8 19.2 8.3 2.1 11.8 84.9 14.2
23 DeVonta Smith 0.0 15.0 30.9 4.7 18.7 15.4 84.7 14.1
24 Mike Williams 3.0 25.3 8.5 19.0 23.4 3.7 82.9 13.8
25 Josh Reynolds 3.8 12.8 15.6 21.1 15.2 B 68.5 13.7
26 DK Metcalf 9.6 7.5 17.4 21.9 18.8 5.4 80.6 13.4
27 Courtland Sutton 11.2 19.7 17.7 16.2 12.4 3.4 80.6 13.4
28 Curtis Samuel 20.2 22.9 13.1 7.8 12.2 2.6 78.8 13.1
29 Jahan Dotson 18.0 17.9 3.0 13.3 DNP DNP 52.2 13.1
30 Brandon Aiyuk 6.7 11.3 12.9 7.7 8.8 28.3 75.7 12.6
31 Tee Higgins 4.7 19.1 14.3 25.4 0.0 10.7 74.2 12.4
32 Tyquan Thornton DNP DNP DNP DNP 2.7 21.3 24.0 12.0
33 Adam Thielen 6.6 9.2 18.1 15.2 6.7 15.6 71.4 11.9
34 Chris Godwin 6.5 DNP DNP 12.9 12.3 15.5 47.2 11.8
35 Drake London 12.4 24.6 14.4 3.7 7.5 7.0 69.6 11.6
36 Rashod Bateman 13.9 20.8 6.9 4.7 DNP DNP 46.3 11.6
37 JuJu Smith-Schuster 12.9 4.0 13.9 9.6 6.3 22.3 69.0 11.5
38 Sterling Shepard 15.1 9.4 9.9 DNP DNP DNP 34.4 11.5
39 Devin Duvernay 21.4 12.2 10.3 9.1 12.8 2.4 68.2 11.4
40 Zay Jones 12.5 5.3 24.5 DNP 4.2 9.2 55.7 11.1
41 Terry McLaurin 13.8 12.2 16.2 3.5 12.6 8.2 66.5 11.1
42 Diontae Johnson 12.5 13.7 16.4 4.2 11.0 8.6 66.4 11.1
43 Corey Davis 13.7 16.3 4.7 18.4 5.8 7.2 66.1 11.0
44 Tyler Boyd 13.3 5.7 20.5 7.6 6.2 12.6 65.9 11.0
45 Garrett Wilson 9.2 30.0 12.0 6.1 5.7 1.8 64.8 10.8
46 Brandin Cooks 15.2 9.4 4.2 18.7 6.0 B 53.5 10.7
47 Keenan Allen 10.6 DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 10.6 10.6
48 Isaiah McKenzie 9.9 5.7 21.2 12.1 DNP 2.9 51.8 10.4
49 Romeo Doubs 8.8 4.7 21.3 14.7 5.9 6.1 61.5 10.3
50 Alec Pierce 0.0 DNP 9.1 12.0 16.1 13.9 51.1 10.2
51 Mack Hollins 2.6 11.6 30.0 6.3 0.0 B 50.5 10.1
52 Jerry Jeudy 20.2 2.2 3.7 15.3 8.3 8.4 58.1 9.7
53 Chase Claypool 9.4 6.6 7.6 0.0 10.0 23.4 57.0 9.5
54 Josh Palmer 3.9 13.0 15.9 3.5 5.4 14.7 56.4 9.4
55 Rondale Moore DNP DNP DNP 3.7 13.1 10.9 27.7 9.2
56 Noah Brown 11.8 20.1 10.4 9.1 1.5 2.0 54.9 9.2
57 Olamide Zaccheaus 7.9 10.1 6.9 7.5 11.9 9.8 54.1 9.0
58 Marvin Jones 7.8 6.3 13.3 0.0 17.4 DNP 44.8 9.0
59 Ben Skowronek 6.5 3.6 10.6 5.3 10.1 16.7 52.8 8.8
60 Robert Woods 2.3 7.9 12.5 13.0 7.7 B 43.4 8.7
61 Sammy Watkins 4.8 12.3 DNP DNP DNP DNP 17.1 8.6
62 Russell Gage 3.3 7.8 25.7 4.4 6.0 4.0 51.2 8.5
63 Laviska Shenault DNP DNP 17.0 0.0 DNP DNP 17.0 8.5
64 Jarvis Landry 18.4 6.5 4.2 4.7 DNP DNP 33.8 8.5
65 Nico Collins 4.6 9.8 6.1 11.2 10.5 B 42.2 8.4
66 D.J. Moore 8.0 13.3 2.5 12.1 10.7 3.7 50.3 8.4
67 Tre'Quan Smith DNP DNP 14.5 2.8 2.0 13.3 32.6 8.2
68 Nelson Agholor 4.8 23.0 5.1 7.6 0.0 DNP 40.5 8.1
69 George Pickens 1.3 3.3 6.9 16.2 14.3 5.8 47.8 8.0
70 Greg Dortch 13.3 15.5 17.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 47.4 7.9
71 Hunter Renfrow 5.1 11.9 DNP DNP 6.5 B 23.5 7.8
72 Donovan Peoples-Jones 12.0 0.0 2.0 12.1 9.0 11.6 46.7 7.8
73 Allen Robinson 2.2 15.3 4.3 2.7 4.2 17.3 46.0 7.7
74 Mecole Hardman 10.6 7.5 1.2 1.4 12.0 13.2 45.9 7.7
75 D.J. Chark 15.2 0.0 7.6 DNP DNP B 22.8 7.6
76 Michael Gallup DNP DNP DNP 10.4 8.4 3.8 22.6 7.5
77 Marquez Valdes-Scantling 8.1 3.3 8.8 9.3 15.0 0.0 44.5 7.4
78 Randall Cobb 3.4 6.7 7.7 7.2 16.9 1.8 43.7 7.3
79 DeVante Parker 1.9 0.0 20.6 10.4 0.0 10.4 43.3 7.2
80 K.J. Osborn 4.4 4.5 18.3 1.5 9.1 4.8 42.6 7.1
81 Wan'Dale Robinson 1.5 DNP DNP DNP DNP 12.7 14.2 7.1
82 Darnell Mooney 1.8 0.6 4.3 13.4 7.2 13.8 41.1 6.9
83 Parris Campbell 6.7 0.0 3.0 8.3 4.2 18.7 40.9 6.8
84 Julio Jones 11.6 DNP DNP 1.7 DNP DNP 13.3 6.7
85 DeAndre Carter 15.4 8.5 5.6 2.6 2.9 4.7 39.7 6.6
86 Robbie Anderson 21.2 5.2 2.4 5.6 4.2 0.0 38.6 6.4
87 Richie James 11.1 10.1 8.0 0.9 3.6 3.8 37.5 6.3
88 Treylon Burks 8.5 8.7 3.1 3.8 DNP B 24.1 6.0
89 Elijah Moore 9.9 6.5 8.9 8.5 2.1 0.0 35.9 6.0

Much like running back, I want my top wide receiver to average at least 16 fantasy points (preferably closer to 18), which is the equivalent of four catches for 60 yards and a touchdown. Most veteran fantasy managers understand that the touchdown cannot be a weekly expectation, but most of today's top receivers can often get to that 16-point mark with volume (eight catches for 80 yards, for example) even when they can't find the end zone.

The top five entries are about what we expected this summer, albeit in a slightly different order. It is particularly interesting that despite the depth that exists at receiver and how important the passing game is nowadays, we have only two more 16-point scorers at receiver (11) than running back (nine). There are some obvious reasons as to why that is - which we will not get into today because that is not the purpose of the article - but this is yet another reminder that even the deepest position in fantasy football does not have enough WR1 options for every manager in a 12-team league.

Let me be clear: I recognize that if we lower the threshold of both running back and receiver to 15 points per game, the disparity between the two positions becomes wider. (We currently have 11 backs and 18 receivers averaging 15 PPG.) With that said, one of the reasons why we should set a 16-point threshold is because it holds our fantasy assets to a higher standard - one that often needs to be reached for our teams to challenge for fantasy championships.

As we might expect for the deepest position in fantasy, we are getting much more high-end consistency from our receivers than at any other position. A quick look at the chart above reveals that most of the top 27 options - ending with Courtland Sutton - have given their fantasy managers at least three WR1-level performances. That is an encouraging thought despite how many players from this group have already missed games due to injury.

Key:

Green - At least 12 fantasy points per game (FPts/G) [TE1]
White - Between 9-12 FPts/G [Mid-range or low-end TE1]
Yellow - Between 6-9 FPts/G [TE2]
Red - Less than 6 FPts/G [TE3]
Blue - Did not play (DNP)
Black - Bye week

 Weekly TE Scoring
Rk Player 1 2 3 4 5 6 FPts FPts/G
1 Travis Kelce 26.1 10.1 17.9 24.2 33.5 19.2 131.0 21.8
2 Mark Andrews 10.2 25.7 28.9 3.5 22.9 23.6 114.8 19.1
3 Zach Ertz 11.4 15.5 10.5 16.7 10.8 14.0 78.9 13.2
4 T.J. Hockenson 7.8 5.6 10.8 39.9 1.6 B 65.7 13.1
5 Taysom Hill 15.3 1.4 DNP 8.1 34.1 4.5 63.4 12.7
6 Greg Dulcich DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 12.4 12.4 12.4
7 Dallas Goedert 9.0 13.2 11.6 12.2 17.5 4.2 67.7 11.3
8 David Njoku 1.7 6.2 23.9 10.7 14.8 8.8 66.1 11.0
9 Tyler Higbee 8.9 14.1 10.1 17.3 11.6 1.7 63.7 10.6
10 Pat Freiermuth 12.5 12.2 6.1 15.5 3.2 DNP 49.5 9.9
11 Gerald Everett 14.4 13.1 4.5 17.1 1.2 7.9 58.2 9.7
12 Robert Tonyan 6.6 3.1 9.7 10.2 6.3 19.0 54.9 9.2
13 George Kittle DNP DNP 6.8 4.4 8.7 16.3 36.2 9.1
14 Hayden Hurst 9.6 7.4 1.7 11.7 17.3 5.1 52.8 8.8
15 Mike Gesicki 1.1 14.1 1.6 4.3 4.0 24.9 50.0 8.3
16 Tyler Conklin 11.6 10.0 16.4 8.2 0.0 2.7 48.9 8.2
17 Will Dissly 13.3 2.0 12.4 13.9 4.1 2.2 47.9 8.0
18 Darren Waller 11.9 17.0 5.2 5.4 0.0 B 39.5 7.9
19 Daniel Bellinger 0.0 8.6 8.0 5.3 10.4 14.8 47.1 7.9
20 Evan Engram 6.8 11.6 3.9 2.6 12.9 9.0 46.8 7.8
21 Logan Thomas 7.5 12.7 2.5 6.9 DNP DNP 29.6 7.4
22 Irv Smith 0.0 14.6 5.2 5.3 8.2 10.7 44.0 7.3
23 Kyle Pitts 3.9 3.9 13.7 3.5 DNP 10.9 35.9 7.2
24 Dawson Knox 1.5 8.1 6.5 7.0 DNP 12.7 35.8 7.2
25 Noah Fant 4.6 3.1 6.7 7.2 7.9 10.5 40.0 6.7
26 Mo Alie-Cox 4.6 1.9 1.9 26.5 1.7 0.0 36.6 6.1
27 Hunter Henry 4.0 0.0 1.8 3.3 9.4 16.1 34.6 5.8
28 Kylen Granson 5.2 3.4 2.7 10.2 2.6 7.8 31.9 5.3
29 Juwan Johnson 6.3 8.0 0.0 6.3 2.3 8.1 31.0 5.2
30 Jelani Woods 0.0 0.0 15.3 4.3 0.0 10.7 30.3 5.1
31 Cameron Brate 1.7 1.9 10.2 7.2 DNP 3.4 24.4 4.9
32 O.J. Howard 17.8 1.7 0.0 4.7 0.0 B 24.2 4.8
33 Cade Otton 0.0 1.4 DNP 5.9 10.3 4.3 21.9 4.4
34 Jonnu Smith 6.3 0.0 6.5 0.0 DNP 8.1 20.9 4.2
35 Dalton Schultz 13.2 2.8 DNP 0.0 0.0 DNP 16.0 4.0

*** Several tight ends - such as Jordan Akins and MyCole Pruitt - who average enough points to make the list but shouldn't be anywhere close to fantasy rosters were excluded from the table above.

I tend to set the bar at tight end around 12 points per game. It is a low bar because I believe it should be closer to 14. At 12 points per game, we are hoping for something around six catches for 60 yards or five for 70. Most fantasy managers already know what we are dealing with at the position, however; tight ends are not reaching that benchmark often enough.

Through six weeks, there have only been 52 instances of a tight end scoring at least 12 fantasy points about 8.7 per week). That may not sound all that bad until we consider Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz are responsible for 12 of them (23.1 percent). Throw in Dallas Goedert, Pat Freiermuth, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett and that number swells to 23 (44.3 percent). There have been only about 10 consistently usable tight ends. Even that statement is a stretch considering the low bar we established earlier.

There is reason for hope. Hayden Hurst, George Kittle and Darren Waller have the resume or recent production to justify the faith fantasy managers need to have to keep them on their rosters. They should join the TE1 fray relatively soon. Robert Tonyan, Daniel Bellinger and Greg Dulcich also have a chance to get there eventually. Until that time comes, Kelce is essentially the equivalent of Josh Allen and Andrews is the equivalent of Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. And then there is everyone else trying to push Ertz for third.

Regarding Ertz, he has been a model of consistency. His biggest problem is that Arizona has attempted only 31 passes inside the red zone (17 inside the 10) and Kyler Murray has only completed 12 of them (four inside the 10). Ertz is among the league leaders with 11 red zone targets and seven targets inside the 10. He has been on the receiving side of 23.5 percent of Murray's red zone completions and 50 percent of Murray's completions inside the 10. His problem is not opportunity. His biggest issues are also the Cardinals' biggest problems: interior offensive line play and HC Kliff Kingsbury's lack of creativity. Perhaps the return of DeAndre Hopkins helps ease the burden of every Arizona offensive player, especially in the red zone.

************

The overriding point of this piece is that fantasy managers likely need to have at least one of the elite options to have any hope of making the postseason. If you have one, you need two. If you have two, try to get three. While nothing is guaranteed when trading for a top-three quarterback or a top-two tight end, it is the best way to gain a significant advantage over the other managers in your league.

Riding with a player like Zay Jones in your WR3 spot may be uncomfortable for a few weeks after completing a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 trade (one which involves you trading a high-end starter at receiver) to land Kelce or Andrews. However, the odds of finding a replacement for Jones down the line are a lot better than finding a tight end that can rival Kelce or Andrews. The same can be said for Allen, Jackson and Hurts at quarterback.

 


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.