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Top 225 Big Board, Half-PPR: Version 2.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/25/22 |
PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Allow me to reluctantly engage in a bit of a humble brag before we get into the heart of what I believe is the best draft-day tool around. (Yes, I am biased.) I have been playing in money leagues for more than 20 years and in high-stakes leagues ($1,000-plus entry) for over 10 years. I have played in those high-stakes leagues during the leanest of times, and I did so in part because I knew I had an advantage over my competition. Does it always result in a championship? Of course not. However, I win roughly one of every six leagues I enter and have never had a season in which I lost money. Does that mean it cannot happen? Of course not. With that said, I will stack my success (and the success of many of my readers) against anyone else's in the industry.

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Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men are asked to work in harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men are being asked to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". That is not a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst that does not consider it at all. I like to believe that even if readers believe my process is flawed for whatever reason, they can appreciate how much thought has been put into that opinion.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this final round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos" column).

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Half-PPR format:

 Half-Point Big Board - Top 225
Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 RB1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 9.12
2 RB2 Jonathan Taylor IND 7.14
3 RB3 Dalvin Cook MIN 6.41
4 WR1 Justin Jefferson MIN 6.09
5 RB4 Saquon Barkley NYG 5.99
6 RB5 Joe Mixon CIN 5.65
7 RB6 D'Andre Swift DET 5.05
8 RB7 Austin Ekeler LAC 4.82
9 WR2 Cooper Kupp LAR 4.40
10 RB8 Najee Harris PIT 3.58
11 RB9 Derrick Henry TEN 3.46
12 WR3 CeeDee Lamb DAL 3.20
13 RB10 Aaron Jones GB 2.90
14 RB11 Nick Chubb CLE 2.17
15 WR4 Stefon Diggs BUF 2.17
16 RB12 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 2.16
17 WR5 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 2.12
18 WR6 Davante Adams LV 2.09
19 RB13 Javonte Williams DEN 1.86
20 RB14 Alvin Kamara NO 1.78
21 RB15 Leonard Fournette TB 1.53
22 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 1.30
23 TE2 Kyle Pitts ATL 1.08
24 QB1 Josh Allen BUF 1.02
25 RB16 Travis Etienne JAC 0.84
26 WR7 Tee Higgins CIN 0.49
27 RB17 AJ Dillon GB 0.46
28 WR8 Mike Evans TB 0.37
29 RB18 Breece Hall NYJ 0.36
30 WR9 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 0.35
31 WR10 Tyreek Hill MIA 0.30
32 RB19 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL 0.18
33 RB20 J.K. Dobbins BAL 0.04
34 WR11 Courtland Sutton DEN -0.04
35 TE3 Darren Waller LV -0.07
36 WR12 A.J. Brown PHI -0.07
37 TE4 Mark Andrews BAL -0.11
38 WR13 Allen Robinson LAR -0.22
39 RB21 Elijah Mitchell SF -0.36
40 TE5 George Kittle SF -0.63
41 WR14 Deebo Samuel SF -0.67
42 RB22 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC -0.94
43 WR15 Mike Williams LAC -1.06
44 RB23 Damien Harris NE -1.12
45 QB2 Justin Herbert LAC -1.20
46 WR16 Terry McLaurin WAS -1.29
47 RB24 Chase Edmonds MIA -1.30
48 WR17 Keenan Allen LAC -1.31
49 WR18 D.J. Moore CAR -1.35
50 RB25 David Montgomery CHI -1.36
51 WR19 Jaylen Waddle MIA -1.47
52 WR20 Brandin Cooks HOU -1.49
53 WR21 Diontae Johnson PIT -1.54
54 RB26 James Conner ARI -1.55
55 QB3 Jalen Hurts PHI -1.70
56 WR22 DK Metcalf SEA -1.78
57 RB27 Dameon Pierce HOU -1.79
58 QB4 Lamar Jackson BAL -1.83
59 WR23 Elijah Moore NYJ -1.86
60 RB28 Miles Sanders PHI -1.86
61 RB29 Tony Pollard DAL -1.87
62 QB5 Kyler Murray ARI -1.92
63 QB6 Patrick Mahomes KC -1.96
64 TE6 T.J. Hockenson DET -1.99
65 TE7 Dallas Goedert PHI -2.04
66 RB30 Rhamondre Stevenson NE -2.09
67 WR24 Gabriel Davis BUF -2.10
68 RB31 Josh Jacobs LV -2.12
69 WR25 Michael Thomas NO -2.12
70 QB7 Dak Prescott DAL -2.15
71 RB32 Melvin Gordon DEN -2.26
72 WR26 Brandon Aiyuk SF -2.30
73 WR27 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET -2.32
74 WR28 Jerry Jeudy DEN -2.32
75 WR29 Marquise Brown ARI -2.33
76 WR30 Darnell Mooney CHI -2.40
77 WR31 Rashod Bateman BAL -2.40
78 WR32 Hunter Renfrow LV -2.42
79 WR33 DeVonta Smith PHI -2.50
80 QB8 Tom Brady TB -2.62
81 RB33 Nyheim Hines IND -2.64
82 QB9 Trey Lance SF -2.67
83 RB34 Kareem Hunt CLE -2.70
84 QB10 Joe Burrow CIN -2.83
85 RB35 Cam Akers LAR -2.86
86 TE8 Zach Ertz ARI -2.88
87 TE9 Dalton Schultz DAL -2.95
88 RB36 Michael Carter NYJ -2.95
89 WR34 Chris Godwin TB -3.00
90 QB11 Russell Wilson DEN -3.02
91 RB37 Antonio Gibson WAS -3.02
92 RB38 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -3.06
93 QB12 Aaron Rodgers GB -3.07
94 WR35 Adam Thielen MIN -3.08
95 QB13 Matthew Stafford LAR -3.10
96 WR36 Christian Kirk JAC -3.20
97 RB39 James Cook BUF -3.24
98 WR37 Allen Lazard GB -3.26
99 WR38 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC -3.37
100 WR39 Russell Gage TB -3.42
101 WR40 Kadarius Toney NYG -3.42
102 TE10 Dawson Knox BUF -3.45
103 RB40 Tyler Allgeier ATL -3.48
104 TE11 Irv Smith MIN -3.49
105 TE12 Cole Kmet CHI -3.56
106 WR41 Drake London ATL -3.56
107 TE13 David Njoku CLE -3.72
108 TE14 Pat Freiermuth PIT -3.73
109 RB41 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -3.79
110 TE15 Albert Okwuegbunam DEN -3.83
111 WR42 Tyler Boyd CIN -3.85
112 WR43 Tyler Lockett SEA -3.86
113 TE16 Tyler Higbee LAR -3.90
114 WR44 Amari Cooper CLE -3.90
115 QB14 Kirk Cousins MIN -3.96
116 TE17 Austin Hooper TEN -3.98
117 WR45 DeAndre Hopkins ARI -4.00
118 RB42 James Robinson JAC -4.06
119 RB43 Devin Singletary BUF -4.13
120 WR46 Marvin Jones JAC -4.16
121 TE18 Noah Fant SEA -4.22
122 TE19 Evan Engram JAC -4.31
123 WR47 Chris Olave NO -4.37
124 WR48 Robert Woods TEN -4.42
125 TE20 Brevin Jordan HOU -4.56
126 WR49 Jakobi Meyers NE -4.61
127 WR50 Nico Collins HOU -4.75
128 WR51 Garrett Wilson NYJ -4.76
129 RB44 Jamaal Williams DET -4.82
130 RB45 Rachaad White TB -4.83
131 TE21 Gerald Everett LAC -4.88
132 WR52 DeVante Parker NE -4.90
133 WR53 Chase Claypool PIT -5.22
134 TE22 Hunter Henry NE -5.25
135 RB46 Rashaad Penny SEA -5.33
136 WR54 George Pickens PIT -5.34
137 RB47 Kenneth Walker SEA -5.35
138 QB15 Derek Carr LV -5.36
139 WR55 Isaiah McKenzie BUF -5.40
140 WR56 Romeo Doubs GB -5.47
141 WR57 Skyy Moore KC -5.48
142 WR58 Rondale Moore ARI -5.55
143 QB16 Trevor Lawrence JAC -5.60
144 QB17 Daniel Jones NYG -5.67
145 WR59 Treylon Burks TEN -5.70
146 WR60 Jahan Dotson WAS -5.70
147 WR61 D.J. Chark DET -5.78
148 RB48 Alexander Mattison MIN -5.80
149 QB18 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -5.84
150 RB49 Isaiah Spiller LAC -5.91
151 TE23 Mike Gesicki MIA -5.93
152 TE24 Tyler Conklin NYJ -5.94
153 RB50 Isiah Pacheco KC -5.96
154 RB51 Darrell Henderson LAR -5.96
155 RB52 Khalil Herbert CHI -6.03
156 WR62 Julio Jones TB -6.05
157 QB19 Justin Fields CHI -6.06
158 RB53 Ameer Abdullah LV -6.07
159 WR63 Nelson Agholor NE -6.08
160 WR64 K.J. Osborn MIN -6.10
161 QB20 Matt Ryan IND -6.13
162 WR65 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -6.13
163 WR66 Kyle Phillips TEN -6.13
164 TE25 Jonnu Smith NE -6.19
165 WR67 Michael Gallup DAL -6.19
166 WR68 Josh Palmer LAC -6.26
167 WR69 Jarvis Landry NO -6.29
168 QB21 Ryan Tannehill TEN -6.30
169 WR70 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC -6.35
170 RB54 J.D. McKissic WAS -6.41
171 RB55 Gus Edwards BAL -6.47
172 TE26 Hayden Hurst CIN -6.54
173 QB22 Mitchell Trubisky PIT -6.54
174 RB56 Chris Evans CIN -6.55
175 WR71 Robbie Anderson CAR -6.76
176 TE27 Daniel Bellinger NYG -6.77
177 WR72 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE -6.80
178 WR73 Curtis Samuel WAS -6.82
179 QB23 Jameis Winston NO -6.85
180 QB24 Mac Jones NE -6.95
181 RB57 Zamir White LV -6.98
182 RB58 Eno Benjamin ARI -7.00
183 WR74 Parris Campbell IND -7.01
184 TE28 Isaiah Likely BAL -7.12
185 RB59 D'Onta Foreman CAR -7.19
186 WR75 Van Jefferson LAR -7.44
187 WR76 Velus Jones Jr. CHI -7.59
188 TE29 Harrison Bryant CLE -7.63
189 RB60 Raheem Mostert MIA -7.69
190 QB25 Carson Wentz WAS -7.76
191 RB61 Jeff Wilson SF -7.77
192 WR77 Cedrick Wilson MIA -7.83
193 TE30 Tommy Tremble CAR -7.84
194 RB62 Sony Michel MIA -7.92
195 WR78 Sterling Shepard NYG -7.94
196 WR79 Mecole Hardman KC -7.98
197 TE31 Logan Thomas WAS -8.11
198 WR80 Alec Pierce IND -8.20
199 WR81 Jalen Tolbert DAL -8.27
200 TE32 Robert Tonyan GB -8.28
201 WR82 Kenny Golladay NYG -8.29
202 RB63 Dontrell Hilliard TEN -8.35
203 RB64 Mark Ingram NO -8.49
204 WR83 Zay Jones JAC -8.50
205 WR84 Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR -8.55
206 WR85 Christian Watson GB -8.76
207 TE33 Greg Dulcich DEN -8.78
208 RB65 Ty Montgomery NE -8.81
209 RB66 Hassan Haskins TEN -8.83
210 WR86 Randall Cobb GB -8.90
211 RB67 Jaylen Warren PIT -9.00
212 WR87 Bryan Edwards ATL -9.01
213 WR88 David Bell CLE -9.18
214 RB68 Zack Moss BUF -9.22
215 WR89 Corey Davis NYJ -9.22
216 WR90 Braxton Berrios NYJ -9.37
217 WR91 Jameson Williams DET -9.42
218 WR92 KJ Hamler DEN -9.58
219 WR93 Sammy Watkins GB -10.22
220 RB69 Chuba Hubbard CAR -10.26
221 WR94 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN -11.14
222 WR95 Khalil Shakir BUF -11.19
223 RB70 D'Ernest Johnson CLE -11.77
224 WR96 Jamison Crowder BUF -13.11
225 RB71 Tyrion Davis-Price SF -14.14


PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.