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Top 225 Big Board FFPC High-Stakes League: V 2.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/30/22 |
PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC

Allow me to reluctantly engage in a bit of a humble brag before we get into the heart of what I believe is the best draft-day tool around. (Yes, I am biased.) I have been playing in money leagues for more than 20 years and in high-stakes leagues ($1,000-plus entry) for over 10 years. I have played in those high-stakes leagues during the leanest of times, and I did so in part because I knew I had an advantage over my competition. Does it always result in a championship? Of course not. However, I win roughly one of every six leagues I enter and have never had a season in which I lost money. Does that mean it cannot happen? Of course not. With that said, I will stack my success (and the success of many of my readers) against anyone else in the industry.

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Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". That is not a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst that does not consider it at all. I like to believe that even if readers believe my process is flawed for whatever reason, they can appreciate how much thought goes into that opinion.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this final round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos" column).

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the FFPC format:

 FFPC Big Board - Top 225
Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 RB1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 10.99
2 WR1 Justin Jefferson MIN 7.34
3 RB2 Jonathan Taylor IND 7.19
4 RB3 Dalvin Cook MIN 7.16
5 RB4 Saquon Barkley NYG 7.11
6 RB5 Austin Ekeler LAC 5.89
7 RB6 D'Andre Swift DET 5.81
8 RB7 Joe Mixon CIN 5.59
9 WR2 Cooper Kupp LAR 5.36
10 RB8 Najee Harris PIT 4.30
11 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 4.24
12 WR3 CeeDee Lamb DAL 3.78
13 RB9 Aaron Jones GB 3.72
14 TE2 Kyle Pitts ATL 3.38
15 RB10 Alvin Kamara NO 3.23
16 RB11 Derrick Henry TEN 3.20
17 WR4 Stefon Diggs BUF 2.91
18 WR5 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 2.64
19 WR6 Davante Adams LV 2.58
20 RB12 Leonard Fournette TB 2.11
21 RB13 Javonte Williams DEN 1.78
22 TE3 Mark Andrews BAL 1.70
23 TE4 Darren Waller LV 1.61
24 RB14 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 1.30
25 RB15 Travis Etienne JAC 1.18
26 RB16 Nick Chubb CLE 1.17
27 QB1 Josh Allen BUF 0.97
28 TE5 Zach Ertz ARI 0.75
29 RB17 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL 0.65
30 WR7 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 0.64
31 WR8 Tee Higgins CIN 0.62
32 WR9 Tyreek Hill MIA 0.54
33 RB18 AJ Dillon GB 0.52
34 TE6 George Kittle SF 0.39
35 WR10 Mike Evans TB 0.31
36 RB19 Breece Hall NYJ 0.30
37 WR11 A.J. Brown PHI 0.18
38 WR12 Allen Robinson LAR 0.03
39 RB20 Chase Edmonds MIA -0.15
40 WR13 Courtland Sutton DEN -0.18
41 RB21 Elijah Mitchell SF -0.23
42 RB22 David Montgomery CHI -0.25
43 RB23 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC -0.30
44 TE7 T.J. Hockenson DET -0.41
45 TE8 Dallas Goedert PHI -0.68
46 RB24 James Conner ARI -0.90
47 WR14 Deebo Samuel SF -0.94
48 WR15 Keenan Allen LAC -1.06
49 WR16 Brandin Cooks HOU -1.20
50 QB2 Justin Herbert LAC -1.22
51 WR17 Mike Williams LAC -1.28
52 WR18 D.J. Moore CAR -1.32
53 RB25 Tony Pollard DAL -1.32
54 WR19 Terry McLaurin WAS -1.36
55 WR20 Jaylen Waddle MIA -1.37
56 WR21 Diontae Johnson PIT -1.38
57 RB26 Damien Harris NE -1.38
58 RB27 Rhamondre Stevenson NE -1.44
59 RB28 J.K. Dobbins BAL -1.58
60 QB3 Jalen Hurts PHI -1.70
61 QB4 Kyler Murray ARI -1.77
62 QB5 Lamar Jackson BAL -1.78
63 QB6 Patrick Mahomes KC -1.79
64 WR22 Michael Thomas NO -1.86
65 TE9 Dalton Schultz DAL -1.91
66 WR23 DK Metcalf SEA -2.07
67 RB29 Nyheim Hines IND -2.11
68 TE10 Cole Kmet CHI -2.20
69 WR24 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET -2.26
70 WR25 Hunter Renfrow LV -2.26
71 RB30 Dameon Pierce HOU -2.26
72 WR26 Jerry Jeudy DEN -2.29
73 RB31 Melvin Gordon DEN -2.37
74 RB32 Josh Jacobs LV -2.44
75 WR27 Elijah Moore NYJ -2.45
76 TE11 Pat Freiermuth PIT -2.46
77 WR28 Rashod Bateman BAL -2.49
78 WR29 Darnell Mooney CHI -2.52
79 WR30 Gabriel Davis BUF -2.57
80 TE12 Dawson Knox BUF -2.68
81 WR31 Brandon Aiyuk SF -2.69
82 WR32 DeVonta Smith PHI -2.74
83 WR33 Marquise Brown ARI -2.74
84 QB7 Dak Prescott DAL -2.80
85 QB8 Tom Brady TB -2.82
86 RB33 Antonio Gibson WAS -2.89
87 QB9 Joe Burrow CIN -2.89
88 QB10 Trey Lance SF -2.94
89 RB34 Miles Sanders PHI -2.95
90 RB35 Kareem Hunt CLE -2.99
91 RB36 James Cook BUF -2.99
92 QB11 Matthew Stafford LAR -3.08
93 TE13 Evan Engram JAC -3.11
94 TE14 Brevin Jordan HOU -3.11
95 TE15 Irv Smith MIN -3.11
96 WR34 Chris Godwin TB -3.14
97 TE16 Austin Hooper TEN -3.15
98 WR35 Adam Thielen MIN -3.15
99 TE17 Tyler Higbee LAR -3.16
100 TE18 David Njoku CLE -3.17
101 QB12 Russell Wilson DEN -3.18
102 TE19 Albert Okwuegbunam DEN -3.19
103 RB37 Michael Carter NYJ -3.30
104 WR36 Christian Kirk JAC -3.44
105 QB13 Aaron Rodgers GB -3.51
106 WR37 Kadarius Toney NYG -3.65
107 WR38 Russell Gage TB -3.66
108 WR39 Allen Lazard GB -3.76
109 WR40 Drake London ATL -3.78
110 TE20 Noah Fant SEA -3.79
111 WR41 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC -3.80
112 RB38 Cam Akers LAR -3.98
113 WR42 DeAndre Hopkins ARI -4.04
114 QB14 Kirk Cousins MIN -4.04
115 WR43 Tyler Boyd CIN -4.11
116 WR44 Tyler Lockett SEA -4.27
117 RB39 Devin Singletary BUF -4.28
118 RB40 Tyler Allgeier ATL -4.29
119 WR45 Amari Cooper CLE -4.31
122 RB41 James Robinson JAC -4.47
120 TE21 Gerald Everett LAC -4.47
121 RB42 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -4.51
123 RB43 Rachaad White TB -4.73
124 WR46 Jakobi Meyers NE -4.83
125 WR47 Marvin Jones JAC -4.88
126 WR48 Chris Olave NO -4.90
127 RB44 Jamaal Williams DET -4.91
128 WR49 Robert Woods TEN -4.97
129 WR50 Nico Collins HOU -5.25
130 TE22 Hunter Henry NE -5.29
131 WR51 Garrett Wilson NYJ -5.35
132 QB15 Derek Carr LV -5.35
133 TE23 Tyler Conklin NYJ -5.40
134 WR52 DeVante Parker NE -5.50
135 QB16 Trevor Lawrence JAC -5.55
136 WR53 Isaiah McKenzie BUF -5.57
137 QB17 Daniel Jones NYG -5.60
138 RB45 Darrell Henderson LAR -5.61
139 WR54 Rondale Moore ARI -5.83
140 QB18 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -5.85
141 RB46 Kenneth Walker SEA -5.89
142 TE24 Hayden Hurst CIN -5.94
143 RB47 J.D. McKissic WAS -5.97
144 RB48 Eno Benjamin ARI -5.97
145 RB49 Ameer Abdullah LV -6.03
146 QB19 Justin Fields CHI -6.05
147 WR55 Chase Claypool PIT -6.16
148 QB20 Matt Ryan IND -6.16
149 WR56 George Pickens PIT -6.25
150 QB21 Ryan Tannehill TEN -6.26
151 WR57 Romeo Doubs GB -6.27
152 RB50 Rashaad Penny SEA -6.29
153 RB51 Alexander Mattison MIN -6.40
154 WR58 Jahan Dotson WAS -6.47
155 WR59 Treylon Burks TEN -6.56
156 RB52 Khalil Herbert CHI -6.60
157 RB53 Isaiah Spiller LAC -6.65
158 WR60 Julio Jones TB -6.66
159 TE25 Mike Gesicki MIA -6.69
160 WR61 D.J. Chark DET -6.75
161 QB22 Carson Wentz WAS -6.78
162 WR62 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -6.80
163 QB23 Jameis Winston NO -6.80
164 WR63 Kyle Phillips TEN -6.80
165 WR64 Josh Palmer LAC -6.89
174 WR65 Parris Campbell IND -6.92
166 TE26 Jonnu Smith NE -6.94
167 WR66 Michael Gallup DAL -7.01
168 WR67 Jarvis Landry NO -7.02
169 WR68 K.J. Osborn MIN -7.02
170 QB24 Mac Jones NE -7.04
171 TE27 Daniel Bellinger NYG -7.15
172 WR69 Nelson Agholor NE -7.24
173 WR70 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC -7.40
175 WR71 Skyy Moore KC -7.52
176 TE28 Logan Thomas WAS -7.53
177 WR72 Curtis Samuel WAS -7.66
178 RB54 Zamir White LV -7.67
179 WR73 Robbie Anderson CAR -7.69
180 TE29 Isaiah Likely BAL -7.91
181 WR74 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE -7.98
182 RB55 Isiah Pacheco KC -8.01
183 TE30 Robert Tonyan GB -8.15
184 RB56 Mark Ingram NO -8.26
185 TE31 Tommy Tremble CAR -8.50
186 RB57 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -8.59
187 RB58 Raheem Mostert MIA -8.61
188 WR75 Sterling Shepard NYG -8.63
189 WR76 Velus Jones Jr. CHI -8.65
190 WR77 Mecole Hardman KC -8.70
191 WR78 Van Jefferson LAR -8.72
192 RB59 Jeff Wilson SF -8.73
193 RB60 Dontrell Hilliard TEN -8.75
194 WR79 Cedrick Wilson MIA -8.82
195 TE32 Mo Alie-Cox IND -8.91
196 TE33 Harrison Bryant CLE -8.98
197 RB61 Gus Edwards BAL -9.00
198 RB62 Jaylen Warren PIT -9.28
199 WR80 Zay Jones JAC -9.31
200 RB63 Myles Gaskin MIA -9.33
201 WR81 Kenny Golladay NYG -9.35
202 WR82 Alec Pierce IND -9.59
203 WR83 Jalen Tolbert DAL -9.67
204 WR84 Randall Cobb GB -9.90
205 WR85 Byron Pringle CHI -9.93
206 TE34 Greg Dulcich DEN -10.11
207 WR86 Corey Davis NYJ -10.30
208 RB64 Zack Moss BUF -10.31
209 WR87 Christian Watson GB -10.32
210 WR88 Jameson Williams DET -10.49
211 RB65 Kyren Williams LAR -10.77
212 WR89 KJ Hamler DEN -11.02
213 WR90 Sammy Watkins GB -11.73
214 TE35 Taysom Hill NO -12.18
215 RB66 Rex Burkhead HOU -12.41
216 WR91 A.J. Green ARI -12.69
217 RB67 D'Ernest Johnson CLE -12.72
218 TE36 Trey McBride ARI -13.04
219 WR92 Khalil Shakir BUF -13.10
220 RB68 Marlon Mack HOU -13.27
221 RB69 Boston Scott PHI -13.48
222 WR93 Jamison Crowder BUF -14.62
223 RB70 Tyrion Davis-Price SF -15.13
224 TE37 Cameron Brate TB -15.44
225 RB71 Mike Davis BAL -17.59


PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC



Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.