Fantasy Football Today - fantasy football rankings, cheatsheets, and information
A Fantasy Football Community!




 Log In  | Sign Up  |  Contact      




 

Top 225 Big Board, Superflex PPR: Version 2.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 9/2/22 |
PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men are asked to work in harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men are being asked to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". That is not a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst that does not consider it at all. I like to believe that even if readers believe my process is flawed for whatever reason, they can appreciate how much thought has been put into that opinion.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this final round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos" column).

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

 Superflex Big Board - Top 225
Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 RB1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 9.94
2 QB1 Josh Allen BUF 7.71
3 WR1 Justin Jefferson MIN 7.34
4 RB2 Jonathan Taylor IND 6.16
5 RB3 Saquon Barkley NYG 6.11
6 RB4 Dalvin Cook MIN 6.10
7 QB2 Justin Herbert LAC 5.59
8 WR2 Cooper Kupp LAR 5.36
9 QB3 Jalen Hurts PHI 5.10
10 QB4 Lamar Jackson BAL 5.05
11 QB5 Kyler Murray ARI 4.98
12 QB6 Patrick Mahomes KC 4.96
13 RB5 Austin Ekeler LAC 4.82
14 RB6 D'Andre Swift DET 4.76
15 RB7 Joe Mixon CIN 4.62
16 QB7 Tom Brady TB 4.13
17 QB8 Dak Prescott DAL 3.88
18 QB9 Joe Burrow CIN 3.83
19 QB10 Matthew Stafford LAR 3.73
20 QB11 Trey Lance SF 3.72
21 QB12 Russell Wilson DEN 3.67
22 WR3 CeeDee Lamb DAL 3.40
23 RB8 Najee Harris PIT 3.40
24 QB13 Kirk Cousins MIN 3.23
25 QB14 Aaron Rodgers GB 3.22
26 WR4 Stefon Diggs BUF 3.01
27 QB15 Derek Carr LV 2.82
28 RB9 Aaron Jones GB 2.76
29 WR5 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 2.64
30 WR6 Davante Adams LV 2.58
31 RB10 Alvin Kamara NO 2.35
32 RB11 Derrick Henry TEN 2.14
33 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 2.02
34 TE2 Kyle Pitts ATL 1.54
35 QB16 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 1.27
36 RB12 Leonard Fournette TB 1.19
37 QB17 Trevor Lawrence JAC 1.15
38 RB13 Javonte Williams DEN 0.77
39 QB18 Daniel Jones NYG 0.76
40 QB19 Justin Fields CHI 0.75
41 WR7 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 0.64
42 QB20 Matt Ryan IND 0.62
43 WR8 Tee Higgins CIN 0.62
44 WR9 Tyreek Hill MIA 0.54
45 QB21 Ryan Tannehill TEN 0.46
46 RB14 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 0.43
47 WR10 Mike Evans TB 0.31
48 RB15 Travis Etienne JAC 0.24
49 WR11 A.J. Brown PHI 0.18
50 RB16 Nick Chubb CLE 0.17
51 TE3 Mark Andrews BAL 0.04
52 WR12 Allen Robinson LAR 0.03
53 QB22 Jameis Winston NO -0.10
54 TE4 Darren Waller LV -0.14
55 WR13 Courtland Sutton DEN -0.18
56 RB17 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL -0.18
57 QB23 Mac Jones NE -0.20
58 QB24 Carson Wentz WAS -0.24
59 RB18 AJ Dillon GB -0.44
60 RB19 Breece Hall NYJ -0.62
61 RB20 David Montgomery CHI -0.86
62 TE5 Zach Ertz ARI -0.94
63 WR14 Deebo Samuel SF -0.94
64 RB21 Chase Edmonds MIA -1.01
65 WR15 Keenan Allen LAC -1.06
66 RB22 Elijah Mitchell SF -1.18
67 WR16 Brandin Cooks HOU -1.20
68 RB23 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC -1.23
69 WR17 Mike Williams LAC -1.28
70 WR18 Diontae Johnson PIT -1.28
71 TE6 George Kittle SF -1.29
72 WR19 D.J. Moore CAR -1.32
73 WR20 Terry McLaurin WAS -1.36
74 WR21 Jaylen Waddle MIA -1.37
75 RB24 James Conner ARI -1.58
76 WR22 Michael Thomas NO -1.86
77 RB25 J.K. Dobbins BAL -1.88
78 TE7 T.J. Hockenson DET -1.95
79 QB25 Marcus Mariota ATL -2.03
80 WR23 Hunter Renfrow LV -2.06
81 WR24 DK Metcalf SEA -2.07
82 RB26 Dameon Pierce HOU -2.10
83 TE8 Dallas Goedert PHI -2.11
84 WR25 Gabriel Davis BUF -2.19
85 WR26 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET -2.26
86 RB27 Tony Pollard DAL -2.26
87 WR27 Jerry Jeudy DEN -2.29
88 RB28 Damien Harris NE -2.40
89 WR28 Elijah Moore NYJ -2.45
90 WR29 Rashod Bateman BAL -2.49
91 RB29 Rhamondre Stevenson NE -2.50
92 WR30 Darnell Mooney CHI -2.52
93 QB26 Zach Wilson NYJ -2.59
94 WR31 Brandon Aiyuk SF -2.69
95 WR32 DeVonta Smith PHI -2.74
96 WR33 Marquise Brown ARI -2.74
97 QB27 Baker Mayfield CAR -2.86
98 QB28 Jared Goff DET -2.87
99 RB30 Nyheim Hines IND -3.02
100 WR34 Christian Kirk JAC -3.06
101 WR35 Chris Godwin TB -3.14
102 WR36 Adam Thielen MIN -3.15
103 TE9 Dalton Schultz DAL -3.18
104 RB31 Josh Jacobs LV -3.22
105 QB29 Davis Mills HOU -3.27
106 RB32 Melvin Gordon DEN -3.38
107 TE10 Cole Kmet CHI -3.59
108 TE11 Dawson Knox BUF -3.60
109 WR37 Kadarius Toney NYG -3.65
110 WR38 Russell Gage TB -3.66
111 RB33 Antonio Gibson WAS -3.71
112 WR39 Drake London ATL -3.78
113 WR40 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC -3.80
114 RB34 Kareem Hunt CLE -3.94
115 RB35 James Cook BUF -3.94
116 RB36 Miles Sanders PHI -3.98
117 WR41 DeAndre Hopkins ARI -4.04
118 WR42 Tyler Boyd CIN -4.11
119 TE12 Pat Freiermuth PIT -4.12
120 WR43 Allen Lazard GB -4.13
121 RB37 Michael Carter NYJ -4.17
122 TE13 Irv Smith MIN -4.24
123 TE14 David Njoku CLE -4.25
124 WR44 Tyler Lockett SEA -4.27
125 WR45 Amari Cooper CLE -4.31
126 TE15 Brevin Jordan HOU -4.31
127 TE16 Austin Hooper TEN -4.32
128 TE17 Albert Okwuegbunam DEN -4.34
129 TE18 Evan Engram JAC -4.46
130 TE19 Tyler Higbee LAR -4.47
131 RB38 Cam Akers LAR -4.73
132 TE20 Noah Fant SEA -4.81
133 WR46 Jakobi Meyers NE -4.83
134 WR47 Marvin Jones JAC -4.88
135 WR48 Chris Olave NO -4.90
136 WR49 Robert Woods TEN -4.97
137 RB39 Tyler Allgeier ATL -5.06
138 RB40 Devin Singletary BUF -5.08
139 WR50 Rondale Moore ARI -5.08
140 WR51 Nico Collins HOU -5.25
141 RB41 James Robinson JAC -5.28
142 WR52 Chase Claypool PIT -5.29
143 TE21 Gerald Everett LAC -5.34
144 RB42 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -5.45
145 WR53 DeVante Parker NE -5.50
146 RB43 Rachaad White TB -5.56
147 WR54 Isaiah McKenzie BUF -5.57
148 RB44 Jamaal Williams DET -5.72
149 WR55 George Pickens PIT -6.05
150 TE22 Tyler Conklin NYJ -6.09
151 TE23 Hunter Henry NE -6.09
152 WR56 Romeo Doubs GB -6.27
153 RB45 Darrell Henderson LAR -6.36
154 WR57 Jahan Dotson WAS -6.47
155 WR58 Michael Gallup DAL -6.54
156 WR59 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC -6.54
157 WR60 Treylon Burks TEN -6.56
158 RB46 Ameer Abdullah LV -6.62
159 WR61 Julio Jones TB -6.66
160 RB47 Kenneth Walker SEA -6.66
161 WR62 D.J. Chark DET -6.75
162 WR63 Corey Davis NYJ -6.76
163 RB48 J.D. McKissic WAS -6.78
164 WR64 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -6.80
165 WR65 Josh Palmer LAC -6.80
166 TE24 Hayden Hurst CIN -6.80
167 WR66 Kyle Phillips TEN -6.80
168 WR67 Parris Campbell IND -6.92
169 WR68 Jarvis Landry NO -7.02
170 WR69 K.J. Osborn MIN -7.02
171 RB49 Rashaad Penny SEA -7.06
172 WR70 Garrett Wilson NYJ -7.14
173 RB50 Alexander Mattison MIN -7.18
174 WR71 Nelson Agholor NE -7.24
175 RB51 Khalil Herbert CHI -7.29
176 TE25 Mike Gesicki MIA -7.35
177 TE26 Jonnu Smith NE -7.50
178 WR72 Skyy Moore KC -7.52
179 QB30 Mitchell Trubisky PIT -7.54
180 RB52 Eno Benjamin ARI -7.55
181 WR73 Curtis Samuel WAS -7.66
182 WR74 Robbie Anderson CAR -7.69
183 TE27 Daniel Bellinger NYG -7.71
184 TE28 Mo Alie-Cox IND -8.04
185 TE29 Isaiah Likely BAL -8.26
186 RB53 Zamir White LV -8.45
187 TE30 Logan Thomas WAS -8.57
188 RB54 Raheem Mostert MIA -8.59
189 WR75 Sterling Shepard NYG -8.63
190 WR76 Velus Jones Jr. CHI -8.65
191 WR77 Van Jefferson LAR -8.72
192 WR78 Mecole Hardman KC -8.81
193 RB55 Isiah Pacheco KC -8.84
194 WR79 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE -8.89
195 RB56 Mark Ingram NO -8.96
196 WR80 Zay Jones JAC -9.31
197 WR81 Kenny Golladay NYG -9.35
198 RB57 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -9.42
199 RB58 Jeff Wilson SF -9.43
200 RB59 Dontrell Hilliard TEN -9.55
201 WR82 Christian Watson GB -9.57
202 WR83 Alec Pierce IND -9.59
203 RB60 Gus Edwards BAL -9.64
204 WR84 Jalen Tolbert DAL -9.76
205 RB61 Jaylen Warren PIT -9.90
206 WR85 Randall Cobb GB -9.90
207 QB31 Deshaun Watson CLE -9.90
208 WR86 Byron Pringle CHI -9.93
209 QB32 Kenny Pickett PIT -10.02
210 WR87 Tyler Johnson HOU -10.40
211 WR88 Jameson Williams DET -10.49
212 WR89 David Bell CLE -10.50
213 RB62 Sony Michel LAC -10.72
214 WR90 KJ Hamler DEN -11.02
215 RB63 Zack Moss BUF -11.05
216 RB64 Kyren Williams LAR -11.41
217 WR91 Sammy Watkins GB -11.73
218 RB65 Rex Burkhead HOU -12.30
219 RB66 Kenyan Drake LV -12.46
220 WR92 Khalil Shakir BUF -13.10
221 RB67 D'Ernest Johnson CLE -13.53
222 WR93 Jamison Crowder BUF -14.62
223 RB68 Jerick McKinnon KC -14.73
224 RB69 Tyrion Davis-Price SF -15.77
225 RB70 Isaiah Spiller LAC -15.78


PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.