For the second straight year, I was invited to the King's Classic
at the Pro Football Hall of Fame this weekend in Canton, Ohio. Just
like the first edition of the event in 2018, two drafts (one auction
and one snake) were conducted across two divisions. Unlike last
year, the size of both divisions was increased from 12 to 14 teams.
I frankly cannot remember a draft in which every single owner seemed
to walk out of the room unhappy, but that seemed to be the mood
after the morning auction was over. So, don't sweat it, kids …
even the industry pros get a bid jaded at times.
Now onto the business at hand, delivering a Big Board that allows
owners to start the season out on the right foot …
For anyone unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain
the SSI concept as well as the color-coding system before we start:
SSI (Success Score Index) - A rankings metric
that incorporates my fantasy-point projections and includes a
weight to my matchup analysis score. In other words, it allows
me to compare apples to oranges across positions.
Red – For lower-level players, a
red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a
second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them
at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to
WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower
than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).
Yellow – For lower-level players,
he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially
a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than
average production.
White – This one can go either
way, but I favor the player over the matchup. In some cases, I
just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this matchup.
Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels
of players.
Green – For non-elite players,
the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the
elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.
Note:Players with a
next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout
concern. Players with a * next to their name
have a higher than normal chance of losing their job at some point
during the season.
Later this week, I will release my Top 200 Big Boards for standard
and 0.5 PPR leagues. In the coming days, I will present my final
rankings for kickers and defense/special teams as well. Next week
will feature Top 200 Big Boards for The Fantasy Championship (TFC)
and the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:
As the SSI scores indicate, there is a clear tier break after the
top three running backs. In a PPR format, all three have already
shown the capacity to finish with at least 80 catches. Alvin Kamara
doesn't appear to have quite the upside when it comes to running-game
volume, but he obviously makes up for it with efficiency and huge
touchdown upside in an offense that should be even better than last
year. If there was any hint that Christian McCaffrey was going to
have goal-line work all to himself this season, he may be in a tier
all by himself. As it is, Cam Newton is supposedly healthy again
and Carolina is reportedly hoping someone will take
a lot of the short-yardage and goal-line work in Carolina. Saquon Barkley's situation is what it is. Defenses can only load the box
so much and Barkley is so good that he will occasionally beat a
defense designed specifically to keep him contained, but it's a
losing bet for fantasy owners to hope that happens every week. Still,
the combination of volume and talent is what keeps him in the conversation
for No. 1 overall.
After the first three backs and David Johnson (who also possesses
80-catch upside), owners probably need to strongly consider what
seem to be the consensus top four receivers. DeAndre Hopkins and
JuJu Smith-Schuster project to have the most difficult matchups,
while Julio Jones seems to have a bit of a touchdown ceiling -
much like Andre Johnson back in the day. Regardless of which order
they come off the board, they are probably the safest remaining
foundation players for fantasy teams. Owners need to realize that
while it always feels good to come away from the first two rounds
with two workhorse running backs, strong cases can be made for
any of the running backs going in the third round to move up a
round and equally strong cases can be made why the group of backs
below the elite receivers should swap places with them.
My only concern with James
Conner is being able to stay healthy for a full season. Jaylen
Samuels may occasionally serve as a nuisance to Conner's owners,
but I think it is within Conner's range of outcomes leads the
league in rushing touchdowns. Most folks still have Ezekiel
Elliott among the top five overall players. I understand why
and can respect that. His holdout is only one of my concerns with
him, however, and we're getting to the time of year where he needs
to report or he's not going to be anywhere close to ready for
the first game or two. Of course, that assumes he reports soon
… and there's no guarantee of that happening. Once again, people
seem to be treating Le'Veon
Bell as a sure thing. He hasn't played football in over a
year, wasn't exactly Mr. Durability prior to that, left a beautiful
situation for his fantasy production and isn't playing in the
preseason. The warning signs aren't as obvious as they were last
year, but still. Dalvin
Cook has overall RB1 upside, but let's be honest about something:
how much do we want to trust a running back who has never been
able to string more than four straight games of 10 carries together?
Nick Chubb feels like he's going to be a player who will help
his owners get off to a 7-2 or 8-1 start. There's probably not
a lot of reason for owners to be concerned about Kareem Hunt taking
his job, but one of the reasons a team adds someone like Hunt
to the roster is to make sure a back like Chubb can take a break
every so often and be relatively fresh for a potential playoff
run. Maybe Cleveland is able to copy the Alvin Kamara-Mark Ingram
model the Saints used to such great effect in 2017 down the stretch.
Or maybe OC Todd Monken wields his influence and makes the Browns
the same kind of pass-happy bunch he turned the Buccaneers into
at times last season.
It's rarely ever a good idea to put too much weight into Seahawks
HC Pete Carroll's eternal optimism when it comes to what a certain
player will do or how quickly he will return from an injury, but
it's hard to deny what Carson has turned himself into over the
last year or so. Carroll and OC Brian Schottenheimer have talked
up getting their running backs more involved in the passing game
to the point where it would be almost impossible to trust anything
they say going forward if they didn't follow through. With that
said, most owners would be perfectly fine if "more involved
in the passing game" means Carson and Penny each double their
target total from last season (24 and 12, respectively) by sharing
the 42 targets Mike Davis leaves behind. Getting back to Carson,
my only concern with him is his running style and how much at
risk he is to miss multiple games because of it. Nevertheless,
a talented back with 250-carry and 40-catch upside belongs in
the first two rounds.
Kerryon Johnson
has become a trendy second-round pick in recent drafts, but is
that justified? His stock seemed to rise about the same time Theo
Riddick was released because so many believe he was the obvious
replacement for him. Do we know that for sure though? Rookie Ty
Johnson may not have set the world on fire as a pass-catcher
in college, but he has proven
to be capable at it so far. He was drafted for his explosiveness,
so it only makes sense that if he can catch the ball and create
big plays - the latter of which Riddick did not do - then he would
be a natural to play the "Riddick role" on a part-time basis.
And in short-yardage or goal-line situations, doesn't it make
more sense to go with C.J.
Anderson? If Carolina feels compelled to take that kind of
work away from McCaffrey, don't think it's not possible in Detroit
as well. As is typically the case, the question isn't whether
Kerryon Johnson can handle being a featured back, but rather a
question if his team will let him do it.
Outside of the first three rounds
Derrick Henry returned to practice Monday (Aug. 19) for the first
time since the opening day of training camp, missing roughly three
weeks with a calf injury. He is supposedly set to be the focal
point for what is expected to be a run-heavy offense, but it is
still difficult to get behind a back who is used so sparingly
in the passing game as a PPR asset. While very few will question
he has the ability to lead the league in rushing if he can stay
healthy and Tennessee holds up its end by feeding the ball 20
times per game, how much can owners count on him making last December
more of a full-time thing? And if owners are really being honest
with themselves, his four-game "breakout" was really
two games - one against a Jacksonville team that had seemingly
lost interest and the other against a poor Giants' defense. Those
two contests were his only 100-yard rushing efforts of the season.
Has anything this summer (or even at the end of last year) screamed
Antonio Brown can be a value pick in the first three rounds? I'm
not about to make fun of the guy for frostbite or the drama surrounding
his helmet. (One of the reasons I stopped playing football when
I did was because of how unsafe I felt with my helmet was back
in high school. And no, there weren't other options. My high school
had a total of 50 people in it, so we didn't exactly have it in
the budget to get perfectly sized helmets.) Getting back to Brown,
however, the way he has handled himself this summer doesn't suggest
he's going to be a trustworthy fantasy asset. Seriously, this
is a player who essentially quit on his team last year. Now, he's
being allowed to skip training camp and the preseason because
he's a "special talent." I find it incredibly difficult
to believe he will be a good soldier for 16 consecutive weeks
after what we have experienced since the end of the 2018 campaign.
After missing out on the James
White train in 2018, it would be fun to own a share or two
of him this year. With that said, a big part of his high usage
had to do with the absences/injuries by his teammates at the skill
positions. Julian
Edelman will be ready starting Week 1 this year, as will Sony
Michel. Rob
Gronkowski may be gone, but Josh
Gordon's reinstatement and the addition of N'Keal
Harry figure to take away some of the targets from a player
who is due for massive touchdown regression and could see his
carries cut after the team added rookie Damien
Harris. There's no question he will remain a fixture in the
passing game - Tom
Brady swears by him - but it's going to be very difficult
for White to be a top-20 running back if he catches 70 balls this
fall (87 in 2018) and scores six touchdowns (which was his career
high before 12 last season).
It was a bit of an eye-opener to see Miles Sanders go at the
4.12 and 5.01 picks in this past weekend's King's Classic drafts.
Were they bad picks? Of course not. Questionable picks? Maybe.
Upside picks? Certainly. But is there any proof - outside of draft
capital - that HC Doug Pederson is willing to abandon his committee
approach? He talked about it for the short time the Eagles had
Jay Ajayi and he appeared to do it for a couple of weeks last
year with Josh Adams … but is there anything more than a
potential early-down role realistically available to him right
away - despite his abilities in the passing game? Corey Clement
and Darren Sproles are good bets to make the roster, and it probably
goes without saying the latter figures to be the primary passing-down
back. Jordan Howard is going to be tough to beat out at the goal
line even if he does relinquish the starting job. While only a
little over a one-round difference, a sixth-round pick at least
reflects the likelihood Sanders may not be able to serve as a
flex consistently or immediately, whereas those the aforementioned
draft slots means Sanders almost has to perform like a low-end
RB2 for their teams at worst.
The best thing that could've probably happened for owners this
past week was for Arizona to look as bad as it did against Oakland.
Given how few starters are playing this preseason, one poor performance
from a first-team offense really stands out and can stop a hype
train in its tracks. The second preseason game is usually one
of the roughest for teams in that they are either breaking camp
or about to and usually suffering from "camp legs."
Furthermore, it's probably a bit much to expect a team learning
a completely new offense this year to all of its checks and blitz
pickups down to a tee. There's no doubt that to some degree Kyler Murray was exposed as a young quarterback with limited playing
experience, but did he lose his athleticism or accuracy? He moved
down from my last set of rankings because I needed to better account
for the likelihood he will miss games due to his poor offensive
line and/or suffer a multi-week injury - even though he seems
to have Russell Wilson's awareness when it comes to knowing when
to get down. Make no mistake about it, however, Murray's a legit
threat for 4,000 yards passing, 600-plus yards rushing and at
least 25 total touchdowns - especially when one considers the
defense will probably force the Cardinals to go into shootout
mode a few times in 2019.
Outside the top 100
I was relatively low-key in my assessment of Darwin Thompson
at draft time, but it became clear after a little more film study
in the early part of the summer that he could be a dynasty asset
at the very least. Fast forward to preseason action and there
may not be a player who has been more impressive in such a small
sample. There are not too many rookies capable of running
an angle route like this in their first NFL game, nor do many
5-8, 200-pound runners have the
leg strength to keep their balance when a defensive lineman
is using his body weight to pull him down (and can't) and he can
still gain yards after contact after shedding the aforementioned
tackle attempt. It may take a few weeks for Thompson to build
the trust that rookie running backs need to earn when a team is
trying to keep its talented young quarterback upright, but it
would be shocking if Thompson didn't force his way into a significant
part of the backfield action by midseason. If Damien Williams
isn't able to maintain the level of play he flashed at the end
of last season, Thompson could end up being the next Chief back
to help owners take home the championship in their leagues. I
expect he'll be on several of the teams I draft over the next
two-plus weeks.
Dante Pettis' stock has experienced one of the bigger drops since
the start of the preseason. A common misconception is that he
would be subject to competing with second-round pick Deebo Samuel,
but they don't play the same position. However, HC Kyle Shanahan
has been less than pleased with Pettis' ability to defeat physical
coverage in the same way Samuel and Kendrick Bourne have. And
let's not forget Jalen Hurd has impressed the team as well. Suffice
it to say that after George Kittle, there's not a clear pecking
order in the passing game. (As one beat writer put it, San Francisco
doesn't have a No. 1 or No. 2 receiver but a bunch of 2.5s and
3s.) By all accounts, Trent Taylor was the team's most impressive
receiver prior to going down with a foot injury. It's entirely
possible he ends up leading the position group in catches if he
is ready to go by Week 1 or Week 2.
It's amazing how much the hype surrounding Darrell Henderson
has quieted over the last few weeks. Perhaps it is a result of
a nondescript preseason showing so far. Perhaps it is a realization
or an acceptance Malcolm Brown is going to see his fair share
of work. Perhaps it is an acknowledgment Todd Gurley may be all
right to go this year after all. Whatever the reason, it may be
helpful for owners to think of Henderson as a healthier version
of Chris Thompson and be pleased if he provided a heftier return.
As has been the case all summer (at least in my mind), Brown seems
like the better handcuff for Gurley owners, while Henderson looks
the better choice for owners hoping for a standalone option with
flex potential.
It was bound to happen at some point, but Josh Gordon's reinstatement
threw the fantasy world off its axis this past weekend. Owners
just cannot seem to help themselves when it comes to Gordon, who
has only played one full season in his career and hasn't been
a significant fantasy asset since 2013. Despite that and his sad
but exceedingly long list of suspensions and transgressions, his
conditional reinstatement bumped his stock up from a late-round
flier in the 14th-round area to a player going off the board in
the fifth, sixth or seventh round. Folks, I cannot overstate this
enough: the personal demons Gordon needs to overcome in order
to return even WR3 value for an entire season are significant.
This is a player who has admittedly struggled with drug use and/or
sold drugs since before he was a teenager. He is now 28. If owners
want to roll the dice on him as a WR4 over a "boring"
option such as Mohamed Sanu or John Brown, go ahead. Just don't
draft him with the intent of starting him every week.
Could Adrian Peterson be a late-round value yet again at age
34? It's possible, although it will be more of an uphill battle
this year than it was in 2018. First of all, Derrius Guice appears
to be ready to return to game action for the first time in over
a year. His road to recovery has hit a few speed bumps, however,
as an infection following ACL surgery reportedly required three
additional surgeries. He was expected to be a full participant
in training camp until he suffered a hamstring injury in mid-July
while rehabbing, which has kept him out of game action. Guice
has been practicing since the start of camp, but doctors didn't
give him the go-ahead to play in games until this week. One would
think Peterson is going to open the season as the starter because
he, quite frankly, has not done anything to lose the job. Another
obstacle in Peterson's way is the likely extended absence of LT
Trent Williams. OL coach Bill Callahan has a reputation for getting
the most out of his troops, but the expected
front five - especially the left side - might keep the coach
awake at night. Still, it should surprise no one if Peterson finds
his way into another 200 carries yet again.
More longshots
Regardless of how anyone stacks their board, there are players
that are nearly impossible to rank. A handful of these players
exist near the bottom of this Big Board. Tony Pollard may be the
Week 1 starter in Dallas or he could be the change-of-pace option
in Dallas who sees a maximum of 10 plays per game behind Elliott.
Kareem Hunt could emerge as a flex option when his suspension
is over (and possibly be an RB1 if Chubb gets hurt), but can owners
burn a roster spot for nine weeks to find out? Robert Foster might
be the most talented receiver in Buffalo, but there's a good chance
he may not even start. Dallas Goedert could easily become a top-10
tight end if Zach Ertz misses any time or he could be a 40-catch
player who scores five touchdowns and is impossible to start with
any confidence. Adam Humphries could be a 60-70 catch slot option
in Tennessee, but how many targets will actually be left for him
if Corey Davis and Delanie Walker combine for 200? Devin Singletary
may end up starting by midseason or he could top out around 70
or 80 carries if LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore prove to be an effective
tandem. Mecole Hardman might as well be the wide receiver version
of Goedert. Justin Jackson could go for 150 carries if Melvin Gordon holds out all season or settle for half of that number if Gordon
reports sooner than later. Malcolm Brown could easily be an RB2
possibility if Gurley bows out early. And so on and so forth …
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout
concern. Players with a * next to their name
have a higher than normal chance of losing their job at some point
during the season.
