Fantasy Football Today - fantasy football rankings, cheatsheets, and information
A Fantasy Football Community!




 Log In  | Sign Up  |  Contact      




 

Top 225 Big Board, Non-PPR: Version 2.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 9/1/21 |
PPR | Half-Point PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex

Allow me to reluctantly engage in a bit of a humble brag before we get into the heart of what I believe is the best draft-day tool around. (Yes, I'm biased.) I have been playing in money leagues for more than 20 years and in high-stakes leagues ($1,000-plus entry) for over 10 years. I have played in those high-stakes leagues during the leanest of times, and I did so in part because I knew I had an advantage my competition did not. Does it always result in a championship? Of course not. However, I win roughly one of every six leagues I enter and have never had a season in which I lost money. Does that mean it can't happen? Of course not. With that said, I will stack the success my process has allowed me (and many of my readers) to enjoy against anyone else's approach in the industry.

*****************

Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men are asked to work in harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men are being asked to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it doesn't mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make 8,000 "decisions". That is not a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst that does not consider it at all. I like to believe that even if readers believe my process is flawed for whatever reason, they can appreciate how much thought has been put into that opinion.

How much thought, you ask?

For example, Allen Robinson lined up on the left side of the formation 409 times, on the right side 298 times and in the slot 245 times last year. Since the majority of defensive coordinators tend to have their cornerbacks stick to one side as opposed to following a particular receiver, Robinson's ability to match up and defeat each of the defensive backs in those spots should be considered. I do that for each player who projects to stand inside the top three of his team's depth chart, and all of that information is factored into my projections. While how often Robinson lines up in a certain spot will inevitably change from last year, it's unlikely the way he is deployed will change all that much in this fourth year under HC Matt Nagy.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is identifying when stocks may be poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 10 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions that have been featured in this space over the last few weeks. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern.

Over the next week, I will release my final Big Boards for Superflex and FFPC leagues. I will also present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Non-PPR format:

 Non-PPR Big Board - Top 225
Rk Pos Player Tm Age SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 RB1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 25 8.88
2 RB2 Derrick Henry TEN 27 7.53
3 RB3 Nick Chubb CLE 25 6.96
4 RB4 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 26 6.01
5 RB5 Jonathan Taylor IND 22 5.40
6 RB6 Dalvin Cook MIN 26 5.25
7 RB7 Aaron Jones GB 26 5.20
8 RB8 Saquon Barkley NYG 24 4.18
9 WR1 Tyreek Hill KC 27 4.16
10 RB9 Antonio Gibson WAS 23 4.00
11 RB10 Najee Harris PIT 23 3.72
12 RB11 Alvin Kamara NO 26 3.63
13 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 31 3.57
14 WR2 Davante Adams GB 28 3.28
15 RB12 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC 22 3.12
16 WR3 Calvin Ridley ATL 26 3.09
17 RB13 Joe Mixon CIN 25 2.94
18 RB14 Austin Ekeler LAC 26 2.90
19 QB1 Patrick Mahomes KC 25 2.29
20 RB15 David Montgomery CHI 24 2.16
21 WR4 DK Metcalf SEA 23 1.91
22 QB2 Josh Allen BUF 25 1.85
23 TE2 George Kittle SF 27 1.80
24 RB16 Chris Carson SEA 26 1.80
25 WR5 DeAndre Hopkins ARI 29 1.80
26 TE3 Darren Waller LV 28 1.73
27 RB17 James Robinson JAC 23 1.64
28 QB3 Kyler Murray ARI 24 1.57
29 WR6 A.J. Brown TEN 24 1.56
30 WR7 Stefon Diggs BUF 27 1.32
31 RB18 Gus Edwards BAL 26 1.31
32 WR8 Justin Jefferson MIN 22 1.19
33 WR9 Terry McLaurin WAS 25 0.70
34 WR10 CeeDee Lamb DAL 22 0.60
35 WR11 Allen Robinson CHI 28 0.38
36 WR12 Mike Evans TB 28 0.32
37 RB19 Damien Harris NE 24 0.19
38 QB4 Lamar Jackson BAL 24 0.05
39 QB5 Dak Prescott DAL 28 0.04
40 QB6 Aaron Rodgers GB 37 0.03
41 WR13 Keenan Allen LAC 29 0.02
42 RB20 Josh Jacobs LV 23 -0.04
43 WR14 Chris Godwin TB 25 -0.16
44 RB21 Javonte Williams DEN 21 -0.17
45 WR15 Amari Cooper DAL 27 -0.21
46 WR16 Robert Woods LAR 29 -0.30
47 WR17 Tee Higgins CIN 22 -0.55
48 QB7 Russell Wilson SEA 32 -0.58
49 WR18 Cooper Kupp LAR 28 -0.60
50 QB8 Ryan Tannehill TEN 33 -0.62
51 RB22 Trey Sermon SF 22 -0.66
52 WR19 Julio Jones TEN 32 -0.73
53 TE4 Mark Andrews BAL 25 -0.78
54 WR20 D.J. Moore CAR 24 -0.79
55 WR21 Tyler Lockett SEA 28 -0.86
56 RB23 D'Andre Swift DET 22 -0.86
57 TE5 Kyle Pitts ATL 20 -1.02
58 RB24 Miles Sanders PHI 24 -1.04
59 WR22 Adam Thielen MIN 31 -1.08
60 RB25 Myles Gaskin MIA 24 -1.08
61 QB9 Tom Brady TB 44 -1.11
62 WR23 Chase Claypool PIT 23 -1.32
63 WR24 Diontae Johnson PIT 25 -1.40
64 WR25 Jerry Jeudy DEN 22 -1.45
65 WR26 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 21 -1.51
66 RB26 Raheem Mostert SF 29 -1.58
67 RB27 Kareem Hunt CLE 26 -1.59
68 WR27 Brandon Aiyuk SF 23 -1.64
69 WR28 Courtland Sutton DEN 25 -1.66
70 QB10 Jalen Hurts PHI 23 -1.74
71 TE6 T.J. Hockenson DET 24 -1.83
72 QB11 Justin Herbert LAC 23 -1.85
73 RB28 Chase Edmonds ARI 25 -2.09
74 WR29 Robby Anderson CAR 28 -2.17
75 WR30 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 28 -2.23
76 RB29 Mike Davis ATL 28 -2.24
77 RB30 Darrell Henderson LAR 24 -2.25
78 WR31 Tyler Boyd CIN 26 -2.28
79 TE7 Noah Fant DEN 23 -2.32
80 WR32 Marvin Jones JAC 31 -2.39
81 TE8 Robert Tonyan GB 27 -2.40
82 WR33 Antonio Brown TB 33 -2.43
83 QB12 Matthew Stafford LAR 33 -2.43
84 WR34 Mike Williams LAC 26 -2.47
85 WR35 Darnell Mooney CHI 23 -2.63
86 WR36 Kenny Golladay NYG 27 -2.64
87 TE9 Logan Thomas WAS 30 -2.65
88 TE10 Dallas Goedert PHI 27 -2.71
89 WR37 Michael Gallup DAL 25 -2.75
90 RB31 Ronald Jones TB 24 -2.78
91 WR38 Corey Davis NYJ 28 -2.83
92 TE11 Jonnu Smith NE 26 -2.88
93 RB32 AJ Dillon GB 23 -2.93
94 WR39 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 24 -3.04
95 WR40 D.J. Chark JAC 24 -3.13
96 RB33 Ty'Son Williams BAL 23 -3.16
97 WR41 Curtis Samuel WAS 25 -3.20
98 RB34 Zack Moss BUF 23 -3.23
99 RB35 Sony Michel LAR 26 -3.24
100 WR42 Jarvis Landry CLE 28 -3.35
101 QB13 Joe Burrow CIN 24 -3.53
102 WR43 Deebo Samuel SF 25 -3.53
103 WR44 Elijah Moore NYJ 26 -3.54
104 RB36 Melvin Gordon DEN 28 -3.60
105 TE12 Mike Gesicki MIA 25 -3.66
106 WR45 DeVonta Smith PHI 22 -3.67
107 WR46 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 23 -3.67
108 WR47 Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR 21 -3.73
109 RB37 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 23 -3.76
110 WR48 Brandin Cooks HOU 27 -3.76
111 RB38 Michael Carter NYJ 22 -3.78
112 QB14 Trevor Lawrence JAC 21 -3.89
113 WR49 Bryan Edwards LV 22 -3.90
114 RB39 Jamaal Williams DET 26 -3.98
115 QB15 Trey Lance SF 21 -4.01
116 WR50 Jaylen Waddle MIA 22 -4.05
117 RB40 Kenyan Drake LV 27 -4.06
118 WR51 Jakobi Meyers NE 24 -4.08
119 TE13 Gerald Everett SEA 27 -4.10
120 QB16 Justin Fields CHI 22 -4.15
121 WR52 Laviska Shenault JAC 22 -4.21
122 WR53 Michael Thomas NO 28 -4.25
123 WR54 Marquez Callaway NO 23 -4.34
124 QB17 Kirk Cousins MIN 33 -4.47
125 QB18 Matt Ryan ATL 36 -4.54
126 RB41 Tony Jones NO 23 -4.55
127 TE14 Tyler Higbee LAR 28 -4.55
128 QB19 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 23 -4.64
129 TE15 Rob Gronkowski TB 32 -4.68
130 WR55 Rondale Moore ARI 21 -4.70
131 WR56 Nelson Agholor NE 28 -4.75
132 WR57 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 26 -4.78
133 WR58 Cole Beasley BUF 32 -4.79
134 TE16 Jared Cook LAC 34 -4.81
135 RB42 Giovani Bernard TB 29 -4.86
136 WR59 Mecole Hardman KC 23 -4.89
137 RB43 Ty Johnson NYJ 23 -4.90
138 QB20 Carson Wentz IND 28 -4.90
139 QB21 Sam Darnold CAR 24 -4.92
140 RB44 Devin Singletary BUF 23 -5.00
141 WR60 Will Fuller MIA 27 -5.01
142 RB45 James Conner ARI 26 -5.02
143 WR61 Russell Gage ATL 25 -5.11
144 WR62 Henry Ruggs III LV 22 -5.11
145 TE17 Austin Hooper CLE 26 -5.17
146 TE18 Evan Engram NYG 26 -5.17
147 WR63 Gabriel Davis BUF 22 -5.21
148 RB46 Leonard Fournette TB 26 -5.26
149 TE13 Hunter Henry NE 26 -5.28
150 WR64 Parris Campbell IND 24 -5.29
151 WR65 DeVante Parker MIA 28 -5.31
152 TE20 Blake Jarwin DAL 27 -5.31
153 WR66 Emmanuel Sanders BUF 34 -5.32
154 TE21 Cole Kmet CHI 22 -5.34
155 WR67 Jalen Reagor PHI 22 -5.36
156 TE22 Eric Ebron PIT 28 -5.37
157 WR68 Van Jefferson LAR 25 -5.38
158 WR69 Sterling Shepard NYG 28 -5.44
159 RB47 Tony Pollard DAL 24 -5.53
160 TE23 Anthony Firkser TEN 26 -5.55
161 WR70 Randall Cobb GB 31 -5.67
162 TE24 Adam Trautman NO 24 -5.84
163 TE25 Irv Smith MIN 23 -5.86
164 WR71 Nico Collins HOU 22 -5.87
165 RB48 J.D. McKissic WAS 28 -5.91
166 WR72 Kadarius Toney NYG 22 -5.92
167 WR73 D'Wayne Eskridge SEA 24 -5.96
168 QB22 Baker Mayfield CLE 26 -5.96
169 RB49 Nyheim Hines IND 24 -6.01
170 TE26 Juwan Johnson NO 24 -6.05
171 WR74 A.J. Green ARI 33 -6.06
172 TE27 Jacob Harris LAR 24 -6.08
173 WR75 Christian Kirk ARI 24 -6.08
174 QB23 Ryan Fitzpatrick WAS 38 -6.08
175 RB50 Tevin Coleman NYJ 28 -6.12
176 RB51 Boston Scott PHI 26 -6.15
177 WR76 T.Y. Hilton IND 31 -6.21
178 TE28 Jimmy Graham CHI 34 -6.24
179 TE29 Brevin Jordan HOU 21 -6.24
180 QB24 Zach Wilson NYJ 22 -6.31
181 RB52 Qadree Ollison ATL 24 -6.32
182 QB25 Daniel Jones NYG 24 -6.34
183 WR77 Darius Slayton NYG 24 -6.35
184 TE30 Kylen Granson IND 23 -6.39
185 TE31 Tyler Conklin MIN 26 -6.40
186 TE32 O.J. Howard TB 26 -6.48
187 QB26 Derek Carr LV 30 -6.49
188 WR78 Tyrell Williams DET 29 -6.50
189 WR79 Quez Watkins PHI 23 -6.55
190 QB27 Jameis Winston NO 27 -6.57
191 RB53 Mark Ingram HOU 31 -6.59
192 RB54 James White NE 29 -6.66
193 WR80 Rashod Bateman BAL 21 -6.73
194 TE33 Zach Ertz PHI 30 -6.76
195 RB55 Darrynton Evans TEN 23 -6.77
196 TE34 C.J. Uzomah CIN 28 -6.79
197 WR81 Tre'Quan Smith NO 25 -6.84
198 WR82 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 21 -6.85
199 RB56 Phillip Lindsay HOU 27 -6.94
200 RB57 Chuba Hubbard CAR 22 -7.09
201 RB58 Alexander Mattison MIN 23 -7.13
202 QB28 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 39 -7.20
203 RB59 Justin Jackson LAC 26 -7.26
204 WR83 Jamison Crowder NYJ 28 -7.30
205 RB60 Larry Rountree III LAC 22 -7.30
206 RB61 Devontae Booker NYG 29 -7.42
207 WR84 Marquise Brown BAL 24 -7.43
208 RB62 Kenneth Gainwell PHI 22 -7.45
209 WR85 Josh Palmer LAC 21 -7.78
210 WR86 KJ Hamler DEN 22 -8.05
211 RB63 Carlos Hyde JAC 30 -8.08
212 WR87 Quintez Cephus DET 23 -8.08
213 RB64 Rashaad Penny SEA 25 -8.15
214 QB29 Teddy Bridgewater DEN 28 -8.50
215 RB65 Salvon Ahmed MIA 22 -8.51
216 RB66 David Johnson HOU 29 -8.61
217 TE35 Dan Arnold CAR 26 -8.76
218 QB30 Mac Jones NE 22 -9.29
219 RB67 Marlon Mack IND 25 -9.49
220 RB68 Eno Benjamin ARI 22 -9.80
221 WR88 Sammy Watkins BAL 28 -10.22
222 RB69 J.J. Taylor NE 23 -10.66
223 RB70 Tarik Cohen CHI 26 -10.96
224 RB71 Justice Hill BAL 23 -11.19
225 QB31 Deshaun Watson HOU 25


PPR Big Board | Half-Pt PPR Big Board | Superflex





Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.