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Top 225 Big Board, Superflex PPR: Version 2.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 9/3/21 |
PPR | Half PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Allow me to reluctantly engage in a bit of a humble brag before we get into the heart of what I believe is the best draft-day tool around. (Yes, I'm biased.) I have been playing in money leagues for more than 20 years and in high-stakes leagues ($1,000-plus entry) for over 10 years. I have played in those high-stakes leagues during the leanest of times, and I did so in part because I knew I had an advantage my competition did not. Does it always result in a championship? Of course not. However, I win roughly one of every six leagues I enter and have never had a season in which I lost money. Does that mean it can't happen? Of course not. With that said, I will stack the success my process has allowed me (and many of my readers) to enjoy against anyone else's approach in the industry.

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Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men are asked to work in harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men are being asked to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it doesn't mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make 8,000 "decisions". That is not a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst that does not consider it at all. I like to believe that even if readers believe my process is flawed for whatever reason, they can appreciate how much thought has been put into that opinion.

How much thought, you ask?

For example, Allen Robinson lined up on the left side of the formation 409 times, on the right side 298 times and in the slot 245 times last year. Since the majority of defensive coordinators tend to have their cornerbacks stick to one side as opposed to following a particular receiver, Robinson's ability to match up and defeat each of the defensive backs in those spots should be considered. I do that for each player who projects to stand inside the top three of his team's depth chart, and all of that information is factored into my projections. While how often Robinson lines up in a certain spot will inevitably change from last year, it's unlikely the way he is deployed will change all that much in this fourth year under HC Matt Nagy.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is identifying when stocks may be poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 10 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions that have been featured in this space over the last few weeks. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. Also, I have added tiers for this final round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos" column).

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

 Superflex Big Board - Top 225
Rk Pos Player Tm Age SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 RB1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 25 12.22
2 QB1 Patrick Mahomes KC 25 7.29
3 QB2 Josh Allen BUF 25 6.85
4 RB2 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 26 6.85
5 QB3 Kyler Murray ARI 24 6.57
6 RB3 Aaron Jones GB 26 5.92
7 RB4 Derrick Henry TEN 27 5.90
8 RB5 Nick Chubb CLE 25 5.86
9 WR1 Davante Adams GB 28 5.84
10 RB6 Dalvin Cook MIN 26 5.79
11 RB7 Austin Ekeler LAC 26 5.78
12 RB8 Alvin Kamara NO 26 5.78
13 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 31 5.59
14 RB9 Saquon Barkley NYG 24 5.28
15 RB10 Jonathan Taylor IND 22 5.10
16 QB4 Lamar Jackson BAL 24 5.05
17 QB5 Dak Prescott DAL 28 5.04
18 QB6 Aaron Rodgers GB 37 5.03
19 WR2 Tyreek Hill KC 27 4.97
20 RB11 Najee Harris PIT 23 4.66
21 RB12 Antonio Gibson WAS 23 4.56
22 QB7 Russell Wilson SEA 32 4.42
23 QB8 Ryan Tannehill TEN 33 4.41
24 WR3 Calvin Ridley ATL 26 4.27
25 TE2 Darren Waller LV 28 4.16
26 RB13 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC 22 4.03
27 WR4 DeAndre Hopkins ARI 29 3.99
28 QB9 Tom Brady TB 44 3.89
29 QB10 Jalen Hurts PHI 23 3.62
30 RB14 Joe Mixon CIN 25 3.54
31 WR5 Stefon Diggs BUF 27 3.24
32 QB11 Justin Herbert LAC 23 3.15
33 TE3 George Kittle SF 27 3.07
34 QB12 Matthew Stafford LAR 33 2.61
35 WR6 DK Metcalf SEA 23 2.24
36 RB15 Chris Carson SEA 26 1.89
37 RB16 David Montgomery CHI 24 1.82
38 RB17 James Robinson JAC 23 1.70
39 WR7 Allen Robinson CHI 28 1.61
40 WR8 Justin Jefferson MIN 22 1.56
41 WR9 A.J. Brown TEN 24 1.52
42 QB13 Joe Burrow CIN 24 1.47
43 WR10 Keenan Allen LAC 29 1.30
44 QB14 Trevor Lawrence JAC 21 1.11
45 WR11 Terry McLaurin WAS 25 1.04
46 QB15 Trey Lance SF 21 0.99
47 QB16 Justin Fields CHI 22 0.79
48 WR12 CeeDee Lamb DAL 22 0.76
49 WR13 Robert Woods LAR 29 0.49
50 QB17 Matt Ryan ATL 36 0.46
51 QB18 Kirk Cousins MIN 33 0.43
52 QB19 Sam Darnold CAR 24 0.37
53 QB20 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 23 0.36
54 RB18 D'Andre Swift DET 22 0.18
55 WR14 Chris Godwin TB 25 0.15
56 WR15 Amari Cooper DAL 27 0.11
57 QB21 Carson Wentz IND 28 0.09
58 WR16 Mike Evans TB 28 0.07
59 WR17 Cooper Kupp LAR 28 -0.06
60 WR18 Tyler Lockett SEA 28 -0.43
61 WR19 Tee Higgins CIN 22 -0.48
62 WR20 Julio Jones TEN 32 -0.52
63 RB19 Myles Gaskin MIA 24 -0.55
64 RB20 Gus Edwards BAL 26 -0.69
65 TE4 Mark Andrews BAL 25 -0.86
66 WR21 Adam Thielen MIN 31 -0.93
67 QB22 Baker Mayfield CLE 26 -0.96
68 QB23 Zach Wilson NYJ 22 -1.00
69 RB21 Javonte Williams DEN 21 -1.09
70 TE5 T.J. Hockenson DET 24 -1.26
71 QB24 Derek Carr LV 30 -1.27
72 WR22 D.J. Moore CAR 24 -1.31
73 RB22 Chase Edmonds ARI 25 -1.34
74 QB25 Daniel Jones NYG 24 -1.34
75 RB23 Josh Jacobs LV 23 -1.36
76 TE6 Kyle Pitts ATL 20 -1.42
77 QB26 Ryan Fitzpatrick WAS 38 -1.43
78 WR23 Diontae Johnson PIT 25 -1.44
79 QB27 Jameis Winston NO 27 -1.45
80 WR24 Jerry Jeudy DEN 22 -1.69
81 WR25 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 21 -1.75
82 RB24 Miles Sanders PHI 24 -1.83
83 RB25 Damien Harris NE 24 -1.86
84 WR26 Chase Claypool PIT 23 -1.98
85 RB26 Kareem Hunt CLE 26 -2.11
86 WR27 Brandon Aiyuk SF 23 -2.20
87 QB28 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 39 -2.20
88 RB27 Mike Davis ATL 28 -2.27
89 WR28 Courtland Sutton DEN 25 -2.40
90 RB28 Trey Sermon SF 22 -2.43
91 WR29 Tyler Boyd CIN 26 -2.49
92 WR30 Corey Davis NYJ 28 -2.65
93 WR31 Robby Anderson CAR 28 -2.72
94 WR32 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 28 -2.80
95 WR33 Marvin Jones JAC 31 -2.84
96 TE7 Noah Fant DEN 23 -2.99
97 TE8 Robert Tonyan GB 27 -3.10
98 WR34 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 24 -3.25
99 RB29 Darrell Henderson LAR 24 -3.30
100 WR35 Antonio Brown TB 33 -3.30
101 WR36 Mike Williams LAC 26 -3.31
102 TE9 Logan Thomas WAS 30 -3.41
103 TE10 Dallas Goedert PHI 27 -3.41
104 WR37 Elijah Moore NYJ 26 -3.44
105 RB30 Raheem Mostert SF 29 -3.44
106 QB29 Teddy Bridgewater DEN 28 -3.47
107 WR38 Darnell Mooney CHI 23 -3.53
108 WR39 Michael Gallup DAL 25 -3.58
109 TE11 Jonnu Smith NE 26 -3.59
110 WR40 D.J. Chark JAC 24 -3.69
111 WR41 Kenny Golladay NYG 27 -3.93
112 RB31 Kenyan Drake LV 27 -3.99
113 WR42 Deebo Samuel SF 25 -4.00
114 RB32 Michael Carter NYJ 22 -4.05
115 WR43 Jarvis Landry CLE 28 -4.19
116 QB30 Mac Jones NE 22 -4.29
117 WR44 Curtis Samuel WAS 25 -4.32
118 RB33 Giovani Bernard TB 29 -4.33
119 RB34 Melvin Gordon DEN 28 -4.45
120 RB35 Ronald Jones TB 24 -4.50
121 WR45 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 23 -4.54
122 WR46 Marquez Callaway NO 23 -4.59
123 TE12 Mike Gesicki MIA 25 -4.64
124 WR47 DeVonta Smith PHI 22 -4.72
125 RB36 Ty'Son Williams BAL 23 -4.73
126 WR48 Michael Thomas NO 28 -4.87
127 WR49 Brandin Cooks HOU 27 -4.88
128 RB37 Jamaal Williams DET 26 -4.93
129 RB38 Devin Singletary BUF 24 -4.94
130 WR50 Jaylen Waddle MIA 22 -4.95
131 WR51 Cole Beasley BUF 32 -5.05
132 RB39 Zack Moss BUF 23 -5.21
133 WR52 Laviska Shenault JAC 22 -5.25
134 RB40 AJ Dillon GB 23 -5.27
135 RB41 Sony Michel LAR 26 -5.29
136 WR53 Bryan Edwards LV 22 -5.32
137 TE13 Gerald Everett SEA 27 -5.32
138 TE14 Evan Engram NYG 27 -5.36
139 QB31 Jared Goff DET 26 -5.43
140 RB42 Nyheim Hines IND 24 -5.47
141 WR54 Rondale Moore ARI 21 -5.56
142 WR55 Jakobi Meyers NE 24 -5.61
143 RB43 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 23 -5.66
144 TE15 Tyler Conklin MIN 26 -5.68
145 TE16 Tyler Higbee LAR 28 -5.68
146 WR56 Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR 21 -5.70
147 RB44 James Conner ARI 26 -5.73
148 WR57 Will Fuller MIA 27 -5.75
149 RB45 Tony Jones NO 23 -5.95
150 WR58 Sterling Shepard NYG 28 -6.00
151 WR59 Russell Gage ATL 25 -6.03
152 WR60 Parris Campbell IND 24 -6.07
153 RB46 J.D. McKissic WAS 28 -6.13
154 RB47 James White NE 29 -6.14
155 RB48 Kenneth Gainwell PHI 22 -6.33
156 RB49 Ty Johnson NYJ 23 -6.45
157 WR61 DeVante Parker MIA 28 -6.46
158 TE17 Blake Jarwin DAL 27 -6.57
159 WR62 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 26 -6.58
160 TE18 Hunter Henry NE 26 -6.59
161 TE19 Jared Cook LAC 34 -6.60
162 WR63 Emmanuel Sanders BUF 34 -6.66
163 TE20 Rob Gronkowski TB 32 -6.72
164 TE21 Austin Hooper CLE 26 -6.78
165 RB50 Tony Pollard DAL 24 -6.78
166 WR64 Mecole Hardman KC 23 -6.79
167 TE22 Cole Kmet CHI 22 -6.83
168 TE23 Anthony Firkser TEN 26 -6.86
169 RB51 Leonard Fournette TB 26 -6.89
170 WR65 Nelson Agholor NE 28 -6.92
171 WR66 A.J. Green ARI 33 -7.29
172 TE24 Eric Ebron PIT 28 -7.32
173 WR67 Henry Ruggs III LV 22 -7.35
174 WR68 Randall Cobb GB 31 -7.40
175 WR69 Jalen Reagor PHI 22 -7.46
176 WR70 Van Jefferson LAR 25 -7.62
177 TE25 Zach Ertz PHI 30 -7.64
178 WR71 Gabriel Davis BUF 22 -7.71
179 RB52 Tevin Coleman NYJ 28 -7.89
180 WR72 Nico Collins HOU 22 -7.93
181 RB53 Darrynton Evans TEN 23 -7.94
182 TE26 Adam Trautman NO 24 -8.10
183 TE27 C.J. Uzomah CIN 28 -8.27
184 RB54 Wayne Gallman ATL 26 -8.27
185 TE28 Juwan Johnson NO 24 -8.30
186 WR73 Rashod Bateman BAL 21 -8.38
187 TE29 Chris Herndon MIN 25 -8.43
188 TE30 Jimmy Graham CHI 34 -8.43
189 WR74 Tyrell Williams DET 29 -8.47
190 TE31 Brevin Jordan HOU 21 -8.49
191 WR75 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 21 -8.50
192 WR76 T.Y. Hilton IND 31 -8.59
193 WR77 Kadarius Toney NYG 22 -8.64
194 WR78 D'Wayne Eskridge SEA 24 -8.68
195 TE32 O.J. Howard TB 26 -8.70
196 WR79 Jamison Crowder NYJ 28 -8.76
197 TE33 Jacob Harris LAR 24 -8.81
198 RB55 Mark Ingram HOU 31 -8.82
199 RB56 Phillip Lindsay HOU 27 -9.04
200 RB57 Devontae Booker NYG 29 -9.15
201 RB58 Alexander Mattison MIN 23 -9.15
202 WR80 Christian Kirk ARI 24 -9.20
203 RB59 David Johnson HOU 29 -9.21
204 WR81 Darius Slayton NYG 24 -9.21
205 TE34 Kylen Granson IND 23 -9.22
206 RB60 Chuba Hubbard CAR 22 -9.28
207 WR82 Quez Watkins PHI 23 -9.31
208 RB61 Justin Jackson LAC 26 -9.33
209 RB62 Rashaad Penny SEA 25 -9.34
210 RB63 Larry Rountree III LAC 22 -9.63
211 RB64 Darrel Williams KC 26 -9.77
212 WR83 Tre'Quan Smith NO 25 -9.81
213 WR84 Marquise Brown BAL 24 -9.86
214 RB65 Carlos Hyde JAC 30 -10.00
215 RB66 Boston Scott PHI 26 -10.22
216 RB67 Salvon Ahmed MIA 22 -10.66
217 WR85 Josh Palmer LAC 21 -10.74
218 WR86 Quintez Cephus DET 23 -10.79
219 TE35 Dan Arnold CAR 26 -10.81
220 WR87 KJ Hamler DEN 22 -10.84
221 RB68 Tarik Cohen CHI 26 -11.20
222 RB69 Marlon Mack IND 25 -11.96
223 QB32 Taysom Hill NO 31 -12.13
224 QB33 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 29 -12.39
225 QB34 Tyrod Taylor HOU 32 -12.83


PPR Big Board | Half PPR Big Board | Non-PPR Big Board | Superflex | FFPC


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.